Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years

A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop

Alexander E. MacDonald

Earth System Research Laboratory – Director

DAA – OAR LCI

September 24, 2007

Boulder, Colorado

Talk Summary

Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years

1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change

2. Science for ADAPTATION

Example 1: Hurricanes

Example 2: Arctic ice melt

Example 3: Greenland melt

Example 4: Colorado river flow

3. Science for MITIGATION

Example 1: Ocean acidity

Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

The quality of a prediction depends first on scientific study to understand the physical processes. Then – and only then – it can be correctly incorporated into analysis and prediction models.

Approach

1. Take the right observations.

2. Understand the processes (physical or chemical).

3. Incorporate into prediction models.

4. Change policy based on better knowledge.

Talk Summary

Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years

1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change

2. Science for ADAPTATION

Example 1: Hurricanes

Example 2: Arctic ice melt

Example 3: Greenland melt

Example 4: Colorado river flow

3. Science for MITIGATION

Example 1: Ocean acidity

Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

Talk Summary

Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years

1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change

2. Science for ADAPTATION

Example 1: Hurricanes

Example 2: Arctic ice melt

Example 3: Greenland melt

Example 4: Colorado river flow

3. Science for MITIGATION

Example 1: Ocean acidity

Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

7

HWIND Aerosonde Plots/Ophelia 16 Aug, 2005

969696

Satellite image at time of second closest approach of Aerosonde to wind center and just after WP-3D SFMR penetration across the eye.

New NSF assets such as HIAPERcan improve our understanding of storm environments.

Talk Summary

Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years

1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change

2. Science for ADAPTATION

Example 1: Hurricanes

Example 2: Arctic ice melt

Example 3: Greenland melt

Example 4: Colorado river flow

3. Science for MITIGATION

Example 1: Ocean acidity

Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

Determine the Fate of the Arctic Ocean Ice

ARCTIC ICE COLLAPSE?

In 2007, the Arctic ocean ice decreased to its lowest ever coverage – a full 15% less.

Permafrost (CCSM)Sept. sea-ice (CCSM)Sept. sea-ice (Observed)

The Community Climate Model shows the summer ice to be bistable, with a rapid transition from ice to ice-free in the 21st century.

(M. Holland et al, 2006)

SHEBA 1998: Scientists spend a year on the Arctic Ocean ice . . .

Arctic clouds may provide a warm blanket . . .

Detailed resolved cloud microphysics/opticalproperties

Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Satellite ValidationNine-year comparison of monthly cloud fractions form surface, TOVS and AVHRR on NOAA satellites And MODIS on NASA satellites over Barrow, Alaska

Cloud Forcing of Surface Radiation Budgets

In the NOAA Unmanned Aircraft Systems program, we propose to fly over the Arctic ice at low and high levels to measure the Arctic energy balance.

Talk Summary

Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years

1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change

2. Science for ADAPTATION

Example 1: Hurricanes

Example 2: Arctic ice melt

Example 3: Greenland melt

Example 4: Colorado river flow

3. Science for MITIGATION

Example 1: Ocean acidity

Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

A rapid melt of Arctic ocean ice could increase the rate of Greenland ice melt. This chart from Overpeck shows a 2 meter sea level rise in red.

NOAA would like to work with NSF to make Summit Greenland a full year-round observatory for carbon and other science.

Talk Summary

Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years

1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change

2. Science for ADAPTATION

Example 1: Hurricanes

Example 2: Arctic ice melt

Example 3: Greenland melt

Example 4: Colorado river flow

3. Science for MITIGATION

Example 1: Ocean acidity

Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

Colorado River Basin Overview• 7 States, 2 Nations• Fastest Growing Part of

the U.S.• Over 1,450 miles in length• Basin makes up about 8%

of total U.S. lands• Highly variable Natural

Flow which averages 15 MAF

• Irrigates 3.5 million acres• Very Complicated Legal

EnvironmentSource:Reclamation

Population Growth in the Colorado River Basin: 1900 – 2000

Population Growth of Colorado River Basin States1900-2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Po

pu

lati

on

in M

illio

ns

Other 6 Basin States Combined

California

1905-1924: 2nd Wettest 20-Year Period in last ~450 Years (Woodhouse et al.)

1978 to 1997: 4th Wettest 20-Year Period in last ~450 Years (Woodhouse et al.)

Population Data Source: www.census.gov

1922: Colorado River Compact Negotiated

California

AZ, CO, NM, NV, UT, WY

Currently: 50+ Million

Trends in Temperature

Mote, et. al, 2005Regonda, et. al, 2005

Stuff and m

Units in Days

Hoerling and Eischeid Eye-Opening Results

Article at: wwa.colorado.edu/resources/climate_change.htmlChristensen et al and Wolter/Doesken Colorado Temps as well

1° C since 1970

Another 2° C Projected to 2050

Average Flow = ~5maf by 2050

Talk Summary

Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years

1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change

2. Science for ADAPTATION

Example 1: Hurricanes

Example 2: Arctic ice melt

Example 3: Greenland melt

Example 4: Colorado river flow

3. Science for MITIGATION

Example 1: Ocean acidity

Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

Talk Summary

Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years

1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change

2. Science for ADAPTATION

Example 1: Hurricanes

Example 2: Arctic ice melt

Example 3: Greenland melt

Example 4: Colorado river flow

3. Science for MITIGATION

Example 1: Ocean acidity

Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

Past and present variability of marine pH. Future predictions for years shown on the right-hand side of the figure are model-derived values based on IPCC mean scenarios. From Pearson and Palmer adapted by Turley et al. and from the Eur-Oceans Fact Sheet No. 7, "Ocean Acidification - the other half of the CO2 problem", May 2007 .

A new generation of moored buoys is proposed:

Platform and Instrumentation for Continuous Ocean Observation

“PICO”

• Inexpensive

• Moored (Eulerian)

• Low Maintenance (3 year service)

• Easy deployment

• Durable

• Industrial design plan

• Multipurpose ( Crawlers with a variety of sensors that go up and down the taut line that extends to the bottom of the ocean)

• Concept from PMEL

System Description:

NSF’s Ocean Observatories are a crucial part of IOOS and the observational basis for understanding and predicting a changing ocean.

Talk Summary

Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years

1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change

2. Science for ADAPTATION

Example 1: Hurricanes

Example 2: Arctic ice melt

Example 3: Greenland melt

Example 4: Colorado river flow

3. Science for MITIGATION

Example 1: Ocean acidity

Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

Will rising temperatures release large

stores of high-latitude carbon?

CARBON: Humankind’s great 21st century challenge.

CARBON TRACKER Developed by ESRL/GMD

"The struggle of today, is not altogether for today -- it is for a vast future also. "

--From the December 3, 1861 Message to Congress

Earth Systems Research Laboratory

Mission: “To observe and understand the earth system and to . . . advance NOAA’s environmental information and service on global-to-local scale.”