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Stock Market FundamentalAnalysis versus Technical Analysis
University Name: German University in Cairo
Prepared by: Ayman Kamal Moawad (W0906617);
Prepared for: Dr Hussein Soudi
Course Name: Corporate Finance
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Table of ContentsSummary.4Introduction6Fundamental Analysis.6
What is It?..................................................................................................................................6
Introduction to Financial Statements7
The Major Statements..........................................................................................7
Quantitative Factors8
Net Profit Margin..................................................................................................8
Earnings Per Share (EPS)......................................................................................8
Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E).....................................................................................8
Return on Assets (ROA)........................................................................................9
Return on Equity (ROE)........................................................................................9
Debt-to-Equity......................................................................................................9
Quick Ratio...........................................................................................................9
Debt-to-Equity....................................................................................................10
Qualitative Factors-TheCompany..10
Business Model..................................................................................................10
Competitive Advantage......................................................................................10
Management......................................................................................................10
Qualitative Factors -The Industry11
Customers..........................................................................................................11
Market Share......................................................................................................11
Industry Growth.................................................................................................11
Competition........................................................................................................11
Technical Analysis.11What is It?................................................................................................................................11
Technical Analysis The Basic Assumption.12
1. Price Discounts Everything:............................................................................12
2. Price Moves In Trends....................................................................................12
3. Price Movements Are Historically Repetitive..................................................13
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Price Charts13
Candlesticks.......................................................................................................13
Trend & Trend Lines.13
UpTrends.............................................................................................................13
Downtrends..........................................................................................................14
SideWays Trend.................................................................................................14
TrendLines.........................................................................................................14
Channels............................................................................................................15
Support & Resistance.........................................................................................16
Volumes..16
Chart Patterns16
Moving Averages17
Conclusions17Conclusions
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Summary
The attempt to predict accurately the future course of stock prices and
thus the appropriate time to buy or sell a stock must rank as one of
mans most persistent endeavors. Most, stock professionals use one
of two methods: technical or fundamental analysis to forecast stock
prices.
Technical analysis studies the behavior of the stock or commodity
price. The price movements ignore the why of the movement and
look for historic patterns to try and predict future movements of the
stock by relating present behavior to past behavior.
Technical analysis does not concern itself with a company's basics or
fundamentals. Rather, technical analysis involves the study of a stock's
trading patterns through the use of charts, trend lines, support and
resistance levels, and many other mathematical analysis tools, in order
to predict future movements in a stock's price, and to help identify
trading opportunities.
The basic foundations of technical analysis are that a stock's current
price discounts all information available in the market, that price
movements are not random, and that patterns in price movements, in
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very many cases, tend to repeat themselves or trend in some
direction
Fundamental analysis requires a close examination of the financial
statements for the company to determine its current financial strength,
future growth and profitability prospects, and current management
skills, in order to estimate whether the stock's price is undervalued or
overvalued. Fundamental Analysis takes care of the growth of the
overall economy and the corporations operating sector and almosteverything that can affect a companys ability to supply return to its
shareholders, including government taxation and regulation. Investor
using these techniques depends heavily on companys annual and
quarterly earnings reports, the economic, political and competitive
environment facing the company, as well as any current news items
or rumors relating to the company's operations. Many analysts use a
combination of techniques to judge whether individual stocks are
attractive for purchase. They use fundamental analysis to decide which
stock to buy within each sector and use fundamental analysis to pick
the correct sector during a particular economic cycle. They then use
Technical analysis to assist on the timing of their buy or sell signal.
Introduction
The aim of this report is to give a brief explanation for both
fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The report will cover
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some of the tools and techniques used by both methods. We will
start by the steps for Fundamental evaluation. Afterwards we will
discuss the basic financial statements. I will cover both qualitative and
quantitative fundamental factors which represents the Key factors used
by the investor to base his investment decision. Moving forward we
give an overview of technical analysis and the different tools used by
the chartist .At the end of the report there will be a guide for the
investor when to use both analysis techniques
Fundamental Analysis
What is it?
Fundamental analysis employs a top down approach that starts with
the overall economy and then works down from industry groups to
specific companies. As part of the analysis process industry groups
are compared against other industry groups and companies against
other companies. Usually companies in the same group are compared
together. For example, a telecom operator (etisalat) would be
compared to another telecom operator (Mobinil), not to an oil
company.
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First and foremost in a top-down approach would be an overall
evaluation of the general economy. When the economy expands, most
industry groups and companies benefit and grow while when the
economy declines, most sectors and companies usually suffer. Many
economists link economic expansion and contraction to the level of
interest rates. Interest rates are seen as a leading indicator for the
stock market as well.. Once a scenario for the overall economy has
been developed, an investor can break down the economy into its
various industry groups.
If the prognosis is for an expanding economy, then certain groups are
likely to benefit more than others. An investor can narrow the field to
those groups that are best suited to benefit from the current or future
economic environment. If most companies are expected to benefit
from an expansion, then risk in equities would be relatively low and
an aggressive growth-oriented strategy might be advisable. A growth
strategy might involve the purchase of technology, biotech,
semiconductor and cyclical stocks. If the economy is forecast to
contract, an investor may opt for a more conservative strategy and
seek out stable income-oriented companies. A defensive strategy might
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involve the purchase of consumer staples, utilities and energy-related
stocks.
To assess an industry group's potential, an investor would want to
consider the overall growth rate, market size, and importance to the
economy. While the individual company is still important, its industry
group is likely to exert just as much, or more, influence on the stock
price.
Once the industry group is chosen, an investor would need to narrow
the list of companies before proceeding to a more detailed analysis.
Investors are usually interested in finding the leaders and the
innovators within a group. The first task is to identify the current
business and competitive environment within a group as well as the
future trends. How do the companies rank according to market share,
product position and competitive advantage? Who is the current leader
and how will changes within the sector affect the current balance of
power? What are the barriers to entry? Success depends on an edge,
be it marketing, technology, market share or innovation. A comparative
analysis of the competition within a sector will help identify those
companies with an edge and those most likely to keep it.
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With a shortlist of companies, an investor might analyze the resources
and capabilities within each company to identify those companies that
are capable of creating and maintaining a competitive advantage. The
analysis could focus on selecting companies with a sensible business
plan, solid management and sound financials.
The final step to this analysis process would be to take apart the
financial statements and come up with a means of valuation.
Introduction to Financial Statements
Financial statements are the medium by which a company discloses
information concerning its financial performance. Followers of
fundamental analysis use the quantitative information gleaned from
financial statements to make investment decisions. Before we jump
into the specifics of the three most important financial statements -
income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements - we will
briefly introduce each financial statement's specific function, along with
where they can be found.
The Major Statements
The Balance Sheet
The balance sheet represents a record of a company's assets,
liabilities and equity at a particular point in time. The balance sheet is
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named by the fact that a business's financial structure balances in the
following manner:
Assets = Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity
Assets represent the resources that the business owns or controls at
a given point in time. This includes items such as cash, inventory,
machinery and buildings. The other side of the equation represents
the total value of the financing the company has used to acquire
those assets. Financing comes as a result of liabilities or equity.
Liabilities represent debt (which of course must be paid back), while
equity represents the total value of money that the owners have
contributed to the business - including retained earnings, which is the
profit made in previous years.
The Income Statement
While the balance sheet takes a snapshot approach in examining a
business, the income statement measures a company's performance
over a specific time frame. Technically, you could have a balance
sheet for a month or even a day, but you'll only see public
companies report quarterly and annually.
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The income statement presents information about revenues, expenses
and profit that was generated as a result of the business' operations
for that period.
Statement of Cash Flows
The statement of cash flows represents a record of a business' cash
inflows and outflows over a period of time. Typically, a statement of
cash flows focuses on the following cash-related activities:
Operating Cash Flow (OCF): Cash generated from day-to-day
business operations
Cash from investing (CFI): Cash used for investing in assets, as well
as the proceeds from the sale of other businesses, equipment or
long-term assets
Cash from financing (CFF): Cash paid or received from the issuing
and borrowing of funds
Quantitative Factors
Quantitative fundamentals are numeric, measurable characteristics
about a business. Its easy to see that the biggest source ofquantitative data is the financial statements.
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In this section will cover some of the important ratios that are used
by investor analyze the financial strength of the companies he is
willing to invest in.
Net Profit Margin
Net income as a percentage of sales. You get this by dividing
net income by sales. Since it's a percentage, it tells you how
many cents on each dollar of sales is pure profit.
The higher a companys profit margin compared to its
competitors, the better.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
A very important fundamental, calculated:
Basically, this will tell you if and how profitable the company is.
Preferred stock is a class of ownership in a corporation with a
stated dividend that must be paid before dividends to common
stock holders.
Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E)
One of the favorite ratios, it is simply:
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P/E is referred to as the "multiple," because it shows how much
investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings.
Return on Assets (ROA) Also sometimes called Return on Investment or ROI, this is a
measure what earnings were generated from capital investment
back into the company.
IT shows How much money (income) was generated from a
companys investment into itself (capital investment or company
assets)?
Return on Equity (ROE)
It is a measure of how much in earnings a company generates
in four quarters compared to its shareholders' equity and is a
good measure of profitability.
For instance, if XYZ Corp. made $1 million in the past year and
has shareholders' equity of $10 million, then the ROE is 10%.
Some use ROE as a screen to find companies that can
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generate large profits with little shareholder investment in the
company.
Debt-to-EquityA relative measure of how much debt a company has:
Essentially: long-term funds provided by creditors divided by
funds provided by shareholders.
A higher debt/equity ratio generally means that a company has
been aggressive in financing its growth with debt. This can result
in volatile earnings.
Quick Ratio
Like current ratio, this gives a measure of a companys financial
strength:
It is a measure of how quickly a company's assets can be
turned in cash.
We subtract inventories so we can check and see if a company
has sufficient liquid assets to meet short-term operating needs
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Qualitative Factors-The Company
Qualitative factors, by definition, represent aspects of a company's
business that are difficult or impossible to quantify, incorporating that
kind of information into a pricing evaluation can be quite difficult. You
can't ignore the less tangible characteristics of a company.
In this section we are going to highlight some of the company-specific
qualitative factors that you should be aware of.
Business Model
The business plan, model, or concept forms the corner stone upon
which all else is built. If the plan, model or concepts stink, there is
little hope for the business. For a new business, the questions may
be these: Does its business make sense? Is it feasible? Is there a
market? Can a profit be made? For an established business, the
questions may be: Is the company's direction clearly defined? Is the
company a leader in the market?
Competitive AdvantageAnother business consideration for investors is competitive advantage.
A company's long-term success is driven largely by its ability to
maintain a competitive advantage and keep it. When a company can
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achieve competitive advantage, its shareholders can be well rewarded
for decades.
ManagementIn order to execute a business plan, a company requires top-quality
management. Investors might look at management to assess their
capabilities, strengths and weaknesses. Even the best-laid plans in the
most dynamic industries can go to waste with bad management.
Alternatively, even strong management can make for extraordinary
success in a mature industry Some of the questions to ask might
include: How talented is the management team? Do they have a track
record? How long have they worked together? Can management
deliver on its promises?
Qualitative Factors -The Industry
Customers
Some companies serve only a handful of customers, while others
serve millions. In general, it's a red flag (a negative) if a business
relies on a small number of customers for a large portion of its sales
because the loss of each customer could dramatically affect revenues.
Market Share
Understanding a company's present market share can tell volumes
about the company's business. The fact that a company possesses an
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85% market share tells you that it is the largest player in its market
by far.
Industry Growth
One way of examining a company's growth potential is to first
examine whether the amount of customers in the overall market will
grow this is crucial because without new customers, a company has
to steal market share in order to grow.
In some markets, there is zero or negative growth, a factor
demanding careful consideration.
Competition
Simply looking at the number of competitors goes a long way in
understanding the competitive landscape for a company. Industries
that have limited barriers to entry and a large number of competing
firms create a difficult operating environment for firms.
Regulation
Certain industries are heavily regulated due to the importance or
severity of the industry's products and/or services. As important as
some of these regulations are to the public, they can drastically affect
the attractiveness of a company for investment purposes.
In industries where one or two companies represent the entire
industry for a region (such as utility companies), governments usually
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specify how much profit each company can make. In these instances,
while there is the potential for sizable profits, they are limited due to
regulation.
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Technical Analysis
What is it?
Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by
looking at purely market-generated data. A trader who uses technical
analysis (sometimes called a technician or chartist) is essentially
concerned with two things;
1) What is the current price?
2) What is the history of price movement?
Basic Assumption
1. Price Discounts Everything:
The price is a sum reflection of all the market forces and
participants (The market knows everything), including commercial
banks, investment banks, central banks, portfolio managers, buy-
side analysts, sell-side analysts, market strategist, traders, investors,
technical analysts, fundamental analysts and many others. Since all
market fundamentals are depicted in the actual market data, the
actual market fundamentals and various factors, such as the
differing opinions, hopes, fears, and moods of market participants,
need not be studied.
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2. Price Moves In Trends.
Technicians typically do not believe that price fluctuations are random
and unpredictable. A technician believes that it is possible to identify
a trend, invest or trade based on the trend and make money as the
trend unfolds. Because technical analysis can be applied to many
different timeframes, it is possible to spot both short-term and long-
term trends.
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3. Price Movements Are Historically Repetitive.
This result in periodical emerging of the similar price patterns and technical
indicators (based on price patterns). These patterns, generated by price
movement, often signify what type of movement is to come in the near future.
The goal in technical analysis is to identify and use these price patterns in
the current market to predict what will happen in the future by examining and
quantifying their regular effects in the past.
Price Charts
A price chart is a sequence of prices plotted over a specific time-frame,
providing an easy-to-read graphical representation of price movement.
On the chart, the vertical axis represents the price (or exchange rate) and the
horizontal axis represents the time scale. Prices are plotted from left to right
across the horizontal axis with the most recent plot (current price) being the
furthest right.
There are three basic types of charts; line chart, bar chart and candlestick chart.
Each has a different graphical interface in which is shows price movement.
Candlesticks are the easiest and most informative to use
Candlesticks
Each candlestick represents the value a stock (its price) over a specific period of
time. The top and bottom levels of the solid body of the candlestick show the
opening price and closing price. If the closing price was lower than the opening
price, it's a red candle (showing a drop in price). If the closing price was higher
than the opening price, it is a blue candle (showing an increase in price).
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Trend & Trend Lines
One of the most important concepts in technical analysis is that of trend. A
trend is really nothing more than the general direction in which a security or
market is headed.
There are three types of trends
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Up trends
This is indicated by progressively higher highs and higher lows, as shown in the
figure below.
Downtrends
This describes the price movement of a financial asset when the overall direction
is downward. A formal downtrend occurs when each successive peak and
trough is lower than the ones found earlier in the trend as shown in the figure
below
Sideways Trend
This describes the horizontal price movement that occurs when the forces of
supply and demand are nearly equal. A sideways trend is often regarded as a
period of consolidation before the price continues in the direction of the
previous move.
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Trend Lines
Trends are easily identified by drawing a straight (trend) line from one price low
to another price low or, from one price high to another price high. Trend lines
are important because they act as a barrier that the stocks price has not gone
above or below or has difficulty going above or below.
Every trend line provides a level of support or resistance. Usually, the longer the
trend line, the stronger the level of support or resistance it provides. In an up-
trend, the trend line (drawn along the bottom of price lows) acts as the level of
support, this generally prevents price from dropping below that level.
Channels
A channel, or channel lines, is the addition of two parallel trend lines that act as
strong areas of support and resistance. The upper trend line connects a series
of highs, while the lower trend line connects a series of lows. A channel can
slope upward , downward or sideways channels are mainly used to illustrate
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important areas of support and resistance.
Support & Resistance
As you can see in Figure below, support is the price level through which a stock
or market seldom falls (illustrated by the blue arrows). Resistance, on the other
hand, is the price level that a stock or market seldom surpasses (illustrated by
the red arrows).
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Volumes
Volume is simply the number of shares or contracts that trade over a given
period of time, usually a day. The higher the volume the more active is the
security. To determine the movement of the volume (up or down), chartists look
at the volume bars that can usually be found at the bottom of any chart. Volume
bars illustrate how many shares have traded per period and show trends in the
same way that prices do.
Volume is an important aspect of technical analysis because it is used to confirm
trends and chart patterns. Any price movement up or down with relatively high
volume is seen as a stronger, more relevant move than a similar move with
weak volume. Therefore, if you are looking at a large price movement, you
should also examine the volume to see whether it tells the same story.
Chart Patterns
Chart Patterns are formed by support and resistance levels and by trend lines.
Chart patterns put all buying and selling into perspective by consolidating the
forces of supply and demand into a concise picture. As a complete pictorial
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record of all trading, chart patterns provide a framework to analyze the battle
raging between buyers and sellers. More importantly, chart patterns and technical
analysis can help determine who is winning the battle, allowing traders and
investors to position themselves accordingly.
Chart pattern analysis can be used to make short-term or long-term forecasts.
The data can be intraday, daily, weekly or monthly and the patterns can be as
short as one day or as long as many years.
There are two types of patterns within this area of technical analysis, reversal
and continuation. A reversal pattern signals that a prior trend will reverse upon
completion of the pattern. A continuation pattern, on the other hand, signals thata trend will continue once the pattern is complete. These patterns can be found
over charts of any timeframe. In the field of technical analysis there are a plenty
of chart patterns each has a certain indication for the traders among those
patterns head and shoulders, triangles, flags, wedge. Below is a figure for one of
those important patterns
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Moving Averages
Most chart patterns show a lot of variation in price movement. This can make it
difficult for traders to get an idea of a security's overall trend. One simple
method traders use to combat this is to apply moving averages. A moving
average is the average price of a security over a set amount of time. By plotting
a security's average price, the price movement is smoothed out. Once the day-
to-day fluctuations are removed, traders are better able to identify the true trend
and increase the probability that it will work in their favor.
There are a number of different types of moving averages that vary in the way
they are calculated, The three most common types of moving averages are
simple, linear and exponential
Simple Moving Average is the most common method used to calculate the
moving average of prices. It simply takes the sum of all of the past closing
prices over the time period and divides the result by the number of prices used
in the calculation. For example, in a 15-day moving average, the last 15 closing
prices are added together and then divided by 15. As you can see in Figure
Conclusions
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Fundamental Analysis assumes collecting a big volume of information about
company which may include but not limited by earning reports, spending reports,
development reports, company's goal, company's plans and others. This type of
analysis requires gathering information about the industry in which the company
operates, what is prospective of this industry and how the company goes along
with industry. As you may imagine this could be a lot of information it could be
time consuming to process all this info for a purpose of generating a trading
decision - buy or not to buy stocks of the company.
On the other hand we have technical analysis. Technical analysis is based on
the analysis of past performance of the stock and applying it to the current
situation in order to predict possible future trend. This type of analysis mainly
includes analysis of the volume and price charts. If a trader looking forward to
make 2-5 trades a day he/she should not bother by fundamental analysis at all.
Intraday traders do not care what is going to happen to the company over the
month and if this company is going to exist in a year at all. All they are
interesting in is where the price of the company's shares going to be in 5-20
minutes. These traders could rely only on technical analysis and this is what
they use.
The same could be applied to those traders who intend to make 1-2 trades a
week and even 2-3 trades a month. Yet, when it goes to the mid-term traders
who plan to have only 2-3 trades a years, it becomes essential to consult
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fundamental analysis. If you are going to hold company's shares for more than 6
months, you need to know a little bit about this company at least.
When it comes to the long-term players - traders who plans to hold company's
shares for several years - technical analysis become less useful and more
attention are drugged to the fundamental analysis.
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References
www.investopedia.com
A primer on Technical Analysis written by prosignal ,
http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0geu5SLP45LZOIAVtVXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzMTlnam43BHNlY
wNzcgRwb3MDMQRjb2xvA2FjMgR2dGlkA0Y3NTVfMTE0/SIG=12mnoaelr/EXP=1267699979
/**http%3a//www.actionforex.com/pdf/a_premier_on_technical_analysis.pdf
Technical Analysis from A-Z
http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0geut20P45LMTsBiG1XNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTE0ODhlMnJzBHNlYw
NzcgRwb3MDMTAEY29sbwNhYzIEdnRpZANGNzU1XzExNA--/SIG=132v9kq2s/EXP=1267700
020/**http%3a//www.lind-waldock.com/traders_catalog/index.cgi%3fcat=book
%26va=1%26p=14
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