Report Assignment Fundemantal_versus_Technical Analysis

8/8/2019 Report Assignment Fundemantal_versus_Technical Analysis

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Stock Market FundamentalAnalysis versus Technical Analysis

University Name: German University in Cairo

Prepared by: Ayman Kamal Moawad (W0906617);

Prepared for: Dr Hussein Soudi

Course Name: Corporate Finance


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Table of ContentsSummary.4Introduction6Fundamental Analysis.6

What is It?..................................................................................................................................6

Introduction to Financial Statements7

The Major Statements..........................................................................................7

Quantitative Factors8

Net Profit Margin..................................................................................................8

Earnings Per Share (EPS)......................................................................................8

Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E).....................................................................................8

Return on Assets (ROA)........................................................................................9

Return on Equity (ROE)........................................................................................9

Debt-to-Equity......................................................................................................9

Quick Ratio...........................................................................................................9

Debt-to-Equity....................................................................................................10

Qualitative Factors-TheCompany..10

Business Model..................................................................................................10

Competitive Advantage......................................................................................10

Management......................................................................................................10

Qualitative Factors -The Industry11

Customers..........................................................................................................11

Market Share......................................................................................................11

Industry Growth.................................................................................................11

Competition........................................................................................................11

Technical Analysis.11What is It?................................................................................................................................11

Technical Analysis The Basic Assumption.12

1. Price Discounts Everything:............................................................................12

2. Price Moves In Trends....................................................................................12

3. Price Movements Are Historically Repetitive..................................................13


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Price Charts13

Candlesticks.......................................................................................................13

Trend & Trend Lines.13

UpTrends.............................................................................................................13

Downtrends..........................................................................................................14

SideWays Trend.................................................................................................14

TrendLines.........................................................................................................14

Channels............................................................................................................15

Support & Resistance.........................................................................................16

Volumes..16

Chart Patterns16

Moving Averages17

Conclusions17Conclusions


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Summary

The attempt to predict accurately the future course of stock prices and

thus the appropriate time to buy or sell a stock must rank as one of

mans most persistent endeavors. Most, stock professionals use one

of two methods: technical or fundamental analysis to forecast stock

prices.

Technical analysis studies the behavior of the stock or commodity

price. The price movements ignore the why of the movement and

look for historic patterns to try and predict future movements of the

stock by relating present behavior to past behavior.

Technical analysis does not concern itself with a company's basics or

fundamentals. Rather, technical analysis involves the study of a stock's

trading patterns through the use of charts, trend lines, support and

resistance levels, and many other mathematical analysis tools, in order

to predict future movements in a stock's price, and to help identify

trading opportunities.

The basic foundations of technical analysis are that a stock's current

price discounts all information available in the market, that price

movements are not random, and that patterns in price movements, in


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very many cases, tend to repeat themselves or trend in some

direction

Fundamental analysis requires a close examination of the financial

statements for the company to determine its current financial strength,

future growth and profitability prospects, and current management

skills, in order to estimate whether the stock's price is undervalued or

overvalued. Fundamental Analysis takes care of the growth of the

overall economy and the corporations operating sector and almosteverything that can affect a companys ability to supply return to its

shareholders, including government taxation and regulation. Investor

using these techniques depends heavily on companys annual and

quarterly earnings reports, the economic, political and competitive

environment facing the company, as well as any current news items

or rumors relating to the company's operations. Many analysts use a

combination of techniques to judge whether individual stocks are

attractive for purchase. They use fundamental analysis to decide which

stock to buy within each sector and use fundamental analysis to pick

the correct sector during a particular economic cycle. They then use

Technical analysis to assist on the timing of their buy or sell signal.

Introduction

The aim of this report is to give a brief explanation for both

fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The report will cover


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some of the tools and techniques used by both methods. We will

start by the steps for Fundamental evaluation. Afterwards we will

discuss the basic financial statements. I will cover both qualitative and

quantitative fundamental factors which represents the Key factors used

by the investor to base his investment decision. Moving forward we

give an overview of technical analysis and the different tools used by

the chartist .At the end of the report there will be a guide for the

investor when to use both analysis techniques

Fundamental Analysis

What is it?

Fundamental analysis employs a top down approach that starts with

the overall economy and then works down from industry groups to

specific companies. As part of the analysis process industry groups

are compared against other industry groups and companies against

other companies. Usually companies in the same group are compared

together. For example, a telecom operator (etisalat) would be

compared to another telecom operator (Mobinil), not to an oil

company.


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First and foremost in a top-down approach would be an overall

evaluation of the general economy. When the economy expands, most

industry groups and companies benefit and grow while when the

economy declines, most sectors and companies usually suffer. Many

economists link economic expansion and contraction to the level of

interest rates. Interest rates are seen as a leading indicator for the

stock market as well.. Once a scenario for the overall economy has

been developed, an investor can break down the economy into its

various industry groups.

If the prognosis is for an expanding economy, then certain groups are

likely to benefit more than others. An investor can narrow the field to

those groups that are best suited to benefit from the current or future

economic environment. If most companies are expected to benefit

from an expansion, then risk in equities would be relatively low and

an aggressive growth-oriented strategy might be advisable. A growth

strategy might involve the purchase of technology, biotech,

semiconductor and cyclical stocks. If the economy is forecast to

contract, an investor may opt for a more conservative strategy and

seek out stable income-oriented companies. A defensive strategy might


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involve the purchase of consumer staples, utilities and energy-related

stocks.

To assess an industry group's potential, an investor would want to

consider the overall growth rate, market size, and importance to the

economy. While the individual company is still important, its industry

group is likely to exert just as much, or more, influence on the stock

price.

Once the industry group is chosen, an investor would need to narrow

the list of companies before proceeding to a more detailed analysis.

Investors are usually interested in finding the leaders and the

innovators within a group. The first task is to identify the current

business and competitive environment within a group as well as the

future trends. How do the companies rank according to market share,

product position and competitive advantage? Who is the current leader

and how will changes within the sector affect the current balance of

power? What are the barriers to entry? Success depends on an edge,

be it marketing, technology, market share or innovation. A comparative

analysis of the competition within a sector will help identify those

companies with an edge and those most likely to keep it.


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With a shortlist of companies, an investor might analyze the resources

and capabilities within each company to identify those companies that

are capable of creating and maintaining a competitive advantage. The

analysis could focus on selecting companies with a sensible business

plan, solid management and sound financials.

The final step to this analysis process would be to take apart the

financial statements and come up with a means of valuation.

Introduction to Financial Statements

Financial statements are the medium by which a company discloses

information concerning its financial performance. Followers of

fundamental analysis use the quantitative information gleaned from

financial statements to make investment decisions. Before we jump

into the specifics of the three most important financial statements -

income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements - we will

briefly introduce each financial statement's specific function, along with

where they can be found.

The Major Statements

The Balance Sheet

The balance sheet represents a record of a company's assets,

liabilities and equity at a particular point in time. The balance sheet is


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named by the fact that a business's financial structure balances in the

following manner:

Assets = Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity

Assets represent the resources that the business owns or controls at

a given point in time. This includes items such as cash, inventory,

machinery and buildings. The other side of the equation represents

the total value of the financing the company has used to acquire

those assets. Financing comes as a result of liabilities or equity.

Liabilities represent debt (which of course must be paid back), while

equity represents the total value of money that the owners have

contributed to the business - including retained earnings, which is the

profit made in previous years.

The Income Statement

While the balance sheet takes a snapshot approach in examining a

business, the income statement measures a company's performance

over a specific time frame. Technically, you could have a balance

sheet for a month or even a day, but you'll only see public

companies report quarterly and annually.


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The income statement presents information about revenues, expenses

and profit that was generated as a result of the business' operations

for that period.

Statement of Cash Flows

The statement of cash flows represents a record of a business' cash

inflows and outflows over a period of time. Typically, a statement of

cash flows focuses on the following cash-related activities:

Operating Cash Flow (OCF): Cash generated from day-to-day

business operations

Cash from investing (CFI): Cash used for investing in assets, as well

as the proceeds from the sale of other businesses, equipment or

long-term assets

Cash from financing (CFF): Cash paid or received from the issuing

and borrowing of funds

Quantitative Factors

Quantitative fundamentals are numeric, measurable characteristics

about a business. Its easy to see that the biggest source ofquantitative data is the financial statements.


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In this section will cover some of the important ratios that are used

by investor analyze the financial strength of the companies he is

willing to invest in.

Net Profit Margin

Net income as a percentage of sales. You get this by dividing

net income by sales. Since it's a percentage, it tells you how

many cents on each dollar of sales is pure profit.

The higher a companys profit margin compared to its

competitors, the better.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

A very important fundamental, calculated:

Basically, this will tell you if and how profitable the company is.

Preferred stock is a class of ownership in a corporation with a

stated dividend that must be paid before dividends to common

stock holders.

Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E)

One of the favorite ratios, it is simply:


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P/E is referred to as the "multiple," because it shows how much

investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings.

Return on Assets (ROA) Also sometimes called Return on Investment or ROI, this is a

measure what earnings were generated from capital investment

back into the company.

IT shows How much money (income) was generated from a

companys investment into itself (capital investment or company

assets)?

Return on Equity (ROE)

It is a measure of how much in earnings a company generates

in four quarters compared to its shareholders' equity and is a

good measure of profitability.

For instance, if XYZ Corp. made $1 million in the past year and

has shareholders' equity of $10 million, then the ROE is 10%.

Some use ROE as a screen to find companies that can


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generate large profits with little shareholder investment in the

company.

Debt-to-EquityA relative measure of how much debt a company has:

Essentially: long-term funds provided by creditors divided by

funds provided by shareholders.

A higher debt/equity ratio generally means that a company has

been aggressive in financing its growth with debt. This can result

in volatile earnings.

Quick Ratio

Like current ratio, this gives a measure of a companys financial

strength:

It is a measure of how quickly a company's assets can be

turned in cash.

We subtract inventories so we can check and see if a company

has sufficient liquid assets to meet short-term operating needs


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Qualitative Factors-The Company

Qualitative factors, by definition, represent aspects of a company's

business that are difficult or impossible to quantify, incorporating that

kind of information into a pricing evaluation can be quite difficult. You

can't ignore the less tangible characteristics of a company.

In this section we are going to highlight some of the company-specific

qualitative factors that you should be aware of.

Business Model

The business plan, model, or concept forms the corner stone upon

which all else is built. If the plan, model or concepts stink, there is

little hope for the business. For a new business, the questions may

be these: Does its business make sense? Is it feasible? Is there a

market? Can a profit be made? For an established business, the

questions may be: Is the company's direction clearly defined? Is the

company a leader in the market?

Competitive AdvantageAnother business consideration for investors is competitive advantage.

A company's long-term success is driven largely by its ability to

maintain a competitive advantage and keep it. When a company can


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achieve competitive advantage, its shareholders can be well rewarded

for decades.

ManagementIn order to execute a business plan, a company requires top-quality

management. Investors might look at management to assess their

capabilities, strengths and weaknesses. Even the best-laid plans in the

most dynamic industries can go to waste with bad management.

Alternatively, even strong management can make for extraordinary

success in a mature industry Some of the questions to ask might

include: How talented is the management team? Do they have a track

record? How long have they worked together? Can management

deliver on its promises?

Qualitative Factors -The Industry

Customers

Some companies serve only a handful of customers, while others

serve millions. In general, it's a red flag (a negative) if a business

relies on a small number of customers for a large portion of its sales

because the loss of each customer could dramatically affect revenues.

Market Share

Understanding a company's present market share can tell volumes

about the company's business. The fact that a company possesses an


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85% market share tells you that it is the largest player in its market

by far.

Industry Growth

One way of examining a company's growth potential is to first

examine whether the amount of customers in the overall market will

grow this is crucial because without new customers, a company has

to steal market share in order to grow.

In some markets, there is zero or negative growth, a factor

demanding careful consideration.

Competition

Simply looking at the number of competitors goes a long way in

understanding the competitive landscape for a company. Industries

that have limited barriers to entry and a large number of competing

firms create a difficult operating environment for firms.

Regulation

Certain industries are heavily regulated due to the importance or

severity of the industry's products and/or services. As important as

some of these regulations are to the public, they can drastically affect

the attractiveness of a company for investment purposes.

In industries where one or two companies represent the entire

industry for a region (such as utility companies), governments usually


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specify how much profit each company can make. In these instances,

while there is the potential for sizable profits, they are limited due to

regulation.


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Technical Analysis

What is it?

Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by

looking at purely market-generated data. A trader who uses technical

analysis (sometimes called a technician or chartist) is essentially

concerned with two things;

1) What is the current price?

2) What is the history of price movement?

Basic Assumption

1. Price Discounts Everything:

The price is a sum reflection of all the market forces and

participants (The market knows everything), including commercial

banks, investment banks, central banks, portfolio managers, buy-

side analysts, sell-side analysts, market strategist, traders, investors,

technical analysts, fundamental analysts and many others. Since all

market fundamentals are depicted in the actual market data, the

actual market fundamentals and various factors, such as the

differing opinions, hopes, fears, and moods of market participants,

need not be studied.


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2. Price Moves In Trends.

Technicians typically do not believe that price fluctuations are random

and unpredictable. A technician believes that it is possible to identify

a trend, invest or trade based on the trend and make money as the

trend unfolds. Because technical analysis can be applied to many

different timeframes, it is possible to spot both short-term and long-

term trends.


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3. Price Movements Are Historically Repetitive.

This result in periodical emerging of the similar price patterns and technical

indicators (based on price patterns). These patterns, generated by price

movement, often signify what type of movement is to come in the near future.

The goal in technical analysis is to identify and use these price patterns in

the current market to predict what will happen in the future by examining and

quantifying their regular effects in the past.

Price Charts

A price chart is a sequence of prices plotted over a specific time-frame,

providing an easy-to-read graphical representation of price movement.

On the chart, the vertical axis represents the price (or exchange rate) and the

horizontal axis represents the time scale. Prices are plotted from left to right

across the horizontal axis with the most recent plot (current price) being the

furthest right.

There are three basic types of charts; line chart, bar chart and candlestick chart.

Each has a different graphical interface in which is shows price movement.

Candlesticks are the easiest and most informative to use

Candlesticks

Each candlestick represents the value a stock (its price) over a specific period of

time. The top and bottom levels of the solid body of the candlestick show the

opening price and closing price. If the closing price was lower than the opening

price, it's a red candle (showing a drop in price). If the closing price was higher

than the opening price, it is a blue candle (showing an increase in price).

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Trend & Trend Lines

One of the most important concepts in technical analysis is that of trend. A

trend is really nothing more than the general direction in which a security or

market is headed.

There are three types of trends

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Up trends

This is indicated by progressively higher highs and higher lows, as shown in the

figure below.

Downtrends

This describes the price movement of a financial asset when the overall direction

is downward. A formal downtrend occurs when each successive peak and

trough is lower than the ones found earlier in the trend as shown in the figure

below

Sideways Trend

This describes the horizontal price movement that occurs when the forces of

supply and demand are nearly equal. A sideways trend is often regarded as a

period of consolidation before the price continues in the direction of the

previous move.

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Trend Lines

Trends are easily identified by drawing a straight (trend) line from one price low

to another price low or, from one price high to another price high. Trend lines

are important because they act as a barrier that the stocks price has not gone

above or below or has difficulty going above or below.

Every trend line provides a level of support or resistance. Usually, the longer the

trend line, the stronger the level of support or resistance it provides. In an up-

trend, the trend line (drawn along the bottom of price lows) acts as the level of

support, this generally prevents price from dropping below that level.

Channels

A channel, or channel lines, is the addition of two parallel trend lines that act as

strong areas of support and resistance. The upper trend line connects a series

of highs, while the lower trend line connects a series of lows. A channel can

slope upward , downward or sideways channels are mainly used to illustrate

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important areas of support and resistance.

Support & Resistance

As you can see in Figure below, support is the price level through which a stock

or market seldom falls (illustrated by the blue arrows). Resistance, on the other

hand, is the price level that a stock or market seldom surpasses (illustrated by

the red arrows).

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Volumes

Volume is simply the number of shares or contracts that trade over a given

period of time, usually a day. The higher the volume the more active is the

security. To determine the movement of the volume (up or down), chartists look

at the volume bars that can usually be found at the bottom of any chart. Volume

bars illustrate how many shares have traded per period and show trends in the

same way that prices do.

Volume is an important aspect of technical analysis because it is used to confirm

trends and chart patterns. Any price movement up or down with relatively high

volume is seen as a stronger, more relevant move than a similar move with

weak volume. Therefore, if you are looking at a large price movement, you

should also examine the volume to see whether it tells the same story.

Chart Patterns

Chart Patterns are formed by support and resistance levels and by trend lines.

Chart patterns put all buying and selling into perspective by consolidating the

forces of supply and demand into a concise picture. As a complete pictorial

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record of all trading, chart patterns provide a framework to analyze the battle

raging between buyers and sellers. More importantly, chart patterns and technical

analysis can help determine who is winning the battle, allowing traders and

investors to position themselves accordingly.

Chart pattern analysis can be used to make short-term or long-term forecasts.

The data can be intraday, daily, weekly or monthly and the patterns can be as

short as one day or as long as many years.

There are two types of patterns within this area of technical analysis, reversal

and continuation. A reversal pattern signals that a prior trend will reverse upon

completion of the pattern. A continuation pattern, on the other hand, signals thata trend will continue once the pattern is complete. These patterns can be found

over charts of any timeframe. In the field of technical analysis there are a plenty

of chart patterns each has a certain indication for the traders among those

patterns head and shoulders, triangles, flags, wedge. Below is a figure for one of

those important patterns

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Moving Averages

Most chart patterns show a lot of variation in price movement. This can make it

difficult for traders to get an idea of a security's overall trend. One simple

method traders use to combat this is to apply moving averages. A moving

average is the average price of a security over a set amount of time. By plotting

a security's average price, the price movement is smoothed out. Once the day-

to-day fluctuations are removed, traders are better able to identify the true trend

and increase the probability that it will work in their favor.

There are a number of different types of moving averages that vary in the way

they are calculated, The three most common types of moving averages are

simple, linear and exponential

Simple Moving Average is the most common method used to calculate the

moving average of prices. It simply takes the sum of all of the past closing

prices over the time period and divides the result by the number of prices used

in the calculation. For example, in a 15-day moving average, the last 15 closing

prices are added together and then divided by 15. As you can see in Figure

Conclusions

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Fundamental Analysis assumes collecting a big volume of information about

company which may include but not limited by earning reports, spending reports,

development reports, company's goal, company's plans and others. This type of

analysis requires gathering information about the industry in which the company

operates, what is prospective of this industry and how the company goes along

with industry. As you may imagine this could be a lot of information it could be

time consuming to process all this info for a purpose of generating a trading

decision - buy or not to buy stocks of the company.

On the other hand we have technical analysis. Technical analysis is based on

the analysis of past performance of the stock and applying it to the current

situation in order to predict possible future trend. This type of analysis mainly

includes analysis of the volume and price charts. If a trader looking forward to

make 2-5 trades a day he/she should not bother by fundamental analysis at all.

Intraday traders do not care what is going to happen to the company over the

month and if this company is going to exist in a year at all. All they are

interesting in is where the price of the company's shares going to be in 5-20

minutes. These traders could rely only on technical analysis and this is what

they use.

The same could be applied to those traders who intend to make 1-2 trades a

week and even 2-3 trades a month. Yet, when it goes to the mid-term traders

who plan to have only 2-3 trades a years, it becomes essential to consult

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fundamental analysis. If you are going to hold company's shares for more than 6

months, you need to know a little bit about this company at least.

When it comes to the long-term players - traders who plans to hold company's

shares for several years - technical analysis become less useful and more

attention are drugged to the fundamental analysis.

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References

www.investopedia.com

A primer on Technical Analysis written by prosignal ,

http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0geu5SLP45LZOIAVtVXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzMTlnam43BHNlY

wNzcgRwb3MDMQRjb2xvA2FjMgR2dGlkA0Y3NTVfMTE0/SIG=12mnoaelr/EXP=1267699979

/**http%3a//www.actionforex.com/pdf/a_premier_on_technical_analysis.pdf

Technical Analysis from A-Z

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NzcgRwb3MDMTAEY29sbwNhYzIEdnRpZANGNzU1XzExNA--/SIG=132v9kq2s/EXP=1267700

020/**http%3a//www.lind-waldock.com/traders_catalog/index.cgi%3fcat=book

%26va=1%26p=14
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