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INCOSE Washington DC
Meeting PresentationStandard Approach to
Trade Studies
Strategic e-Business Solutions, Inc.Delivering innovative solutions to business
challenges that impede performance
Art FelixLean Six Sigma Black Belt
April 10, 2007
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Informed decision-making comes from along tradition of guessing and then blaming
others for inadequate results.
Scott Adams
Standard Approach to Trade Studies
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Standard Approach - Advantages
Transform a subjective decision-making process toa more objective decision-making process
Advantages to a Standard Approach Understood with confidence.
Repeated at a later date
Remove blind dependence on commercially available decisionmaking packages
Provide flexibility to accommodate informal decisions
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Problems and Thoughts on Trade Studies
Problems associated with previous Trade Studies Pre-designated winner
Process used, or lack thereof
Management involvement or lack thereof
Criteria used and Alternatives evaluated are questioned
Conflict in evaluation of Cost and Risk
Additional thoughts on Trade Studies
Who is the Trade Study customer? Documenting thinking process
Varying complexity due to information/resources
CAIV
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Basic steps in previous Trade Studies Get a copy of a previously approved Trade Study and
duplicate the steps.(or)
Customization individual preferences and/or individualLessons Learned
Alternatives use baseline if available Criteria use costs and risk as tradable criteria Weighting the criteria
Summary Matrix Sensitivity Study
(and add the eventual)Sample Summary Matrix - Used to tabulate the weighted criteria scoring for each
Viable Alternative
Alternative A Alternati ve B Alternati ve C Alt ernative D
Criteria Sub-Criteria
Weigh ti ng RawScore
WeightedScore
RawScore
WeightedScore
RawScore
WeightedScore
RawScore
WeightedScore
Performance - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -speed 3.0acceleration 3.0payload 2.0fuel consumption 1.0ceiling 1.0
Reliability - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -MTBF 1.0
Safety - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Safety 1.0
Logistics - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Supply Lines 1.0Spare Parts 1.0Crew Training 2.0
TOTAL - - - #1 Score - - - #2 Score - - - #3 Score - - - #4 Score
Summary MatrixCost $____ Cost $____ Cost $____ Cost $____
Sample Summary Matrix - Used to tabulate the weighted criteria scoring for eachViable Alternative
Alternative A Alternati ve B Alternati ve C Alt ernative D
Criteria Sub-Criteria
Weigh ti ng RawScore
WeightedScore
RawScore
WeightedScore
RawScore
WeightedScore
RawScore
WeightedScore
Performance - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -speed 3.0acceleration 3.0payload 2.0fuel consumption 1.0ceiling 1.0
Reliability - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -MTBF 1.0
Safety - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Safety 1.0
Logistics - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Supply Lines 1.0Spare Parts 1.0Crew Training 2.0
TOTAL - - - #1 Score - - - # 2 Score - - - #3 Score - - - #4 Score
Summary MatrixCost $____ Cost $____ Cost $____ Cost $____
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Trade Study Steps
AlternativesCriteriaBaselineSummary Matrix
Priorities/WeightingSensitivity Study
Trade Study Subsets
Pros / Cons Pros / Cons
Trade Study Steps
AlternativesCriteriaBaseline /Summary Matrix
Priorities/WeightingSensitivity Study
Trade Study Subsets
Trade Study Process(Framework and Structure)1
Cost Risk22
OptimumSolution
3
Uncertainty / Lackof Confidence
4
Cost Benefit
chart
5 Risk Benefitchart
6
That MeetsCMMILevel 3!!!!
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1. Framework and Structure (basic)Program Development:
Requirements Design and Validation & DeploymentDefinition Development Verification
P u r p o
s e / N e e
d s
S t a t e
m e n t
Gate 1Review
Gate 2Review
Gate 3Review
SummaryMatrixReview
A l t e r n a t
i v e s ,
C r i t e
r i a ,
C r i t e
r i a w e i g h t i n
g s
S u m m
a r y
M a t r i x
( e s ) E v a l u a t e
t h e
S u m m a
r y M a
t r i x
a n d d
e v e l o p
R e c o m m e n
d a t i o
n s
E x e c u t e
A l t e
r n a t i v
e
s e l e c
t i o n o r
r e - p l a
n
m a j o r
r e - w o
r k e f f
o r t s
Trade Study Development:
Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV
Initiate the Develop the Evaluate the Course of Trade Study Summary Matrix Results Action
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2. Cost and Risk; 3. Baseline & Optimum
Cost and Risk Loose importance as tradable criteria
Revisited in final review (part of eventual customization)
Proposition: Remove Cost and Risk as tradable criteria andevaluate both in the Cost-Benefit and Risk-Benefit chart
Establish Baselineand Optimumsolution for eachtradable criteria
Criteria (n) - Utility Curve
987654321
Min Max
C r i
t e r i a
S c o r i n g
Alternative Grade
Optimum Solution
Baseline Solution
C r i
t e r i a
S c o r i n g
Alternative Grade
Optimum Solution
Baseline Solution
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4. Uncertainty
Identify uncertainty boundaries for each evaluationcriteria in the grading process
Note: Do not forget to establish uncertainty boundariesfor the total costs of each alternative!
Criteria (n) - Utility Curve
987654321
Min Max
C r i
t e r i a
S c o r i n g
Alternative Grade
Nominal
C r i
t e r i a
S c o r i n g
Alternative Grade
Maximum
Minimum
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5. Cost-Benefit Chart Example:
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e )
Alternative B
Low
(Least Desirable Quadrant)(High Cost Low Benefit) (High Cost High Benefit)
(Low Cost Low Benefit)
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e )
Low Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e )
Alternative B
Low
(Least Desirable Quadrant)(High Cost Low Benefit) (High Cost High Benefit)
(Low Cost Low Benefit)
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( A c c e p
t a b l e S o
l u t i o n
)
Low
( I d e a
l S o
l u t i o n
)
90%50% 60% 70% 80%10% 20% 30% 40%
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e )
Alternative B
Low
(Least Desirable Quadrant)(High Cost Low Benefit) (High Cost High Benefit)
(Low Cost Low Benefit)
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e )
Low Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e )
Alternative B
Low
(Least Desirable Quadrant)(High Cost Low Benefit) (High Cost High Benefit)
(Low Cost Low Benefit)
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( A c c e p
t a b l e S o
l u t i o n
)
Low
( I d e a
l S o
l u t i o n
)
90%50% 60% 70% 80%10% 20% 30% 40%
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e )
Alternative B
Low
(Least Desirable Quadrant)(High Cost Low Benefit) (High Cost High Benefit)
(Low Cost Low Benefit)
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e )
Low Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e )
Alternative B
Low
(Least Desirable Quadrant)(High Cost Low Benefit) (High Cost High Benefit)
(Low Cost Low Benefit)
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( A c c e p
t a b l e S o
l u t i o n
)
Low
( I d e a
l S o
l u t i o n
)
90%50% 60% 70% 80%10% 20% 30% 40% 90%50% 60% 70% 80%10% 20% 30% 40%
Alternative B Alternative B
Alternative A
Alternative D
Alternative C
Alternative B Alternative B Alternative B Alternative B
Alternative A
Alternative D
Alternative C
Alternative B Alternative B Alternative B Alternative B
Alternative A
Alternative D
Alternative C
Alternative B Alternative B Alternative B Alternative B
Alternative A
Alternative D
Alternative C
Alternative B Alternative B
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5. Cost-Benefit Chart (continued) Example:
HighBenefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e
)
Alternative B
Low
Low
High
(Least Desirable Quadrant)(High Cost Low Benefit) (High Cost High Benefit)
(Low Cost Low Benefit)
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e
)
Low
Low
High
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e
)
Alternative B
Low
Low
High
(Least Desirable Quadrant)(High Cost Low Benefit) (High Cost High Benefit)
(Low Cost Low Benefit)
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e
)
Low
Low
High
E a s y D e c i s i o n
HighBenefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e
)
Alternative B
Low
Low
High
(Least Desirable Quadrant)(High Cost Low Benefit) (High Cost High Benefit)
(Low Cost Low Benefit)
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e
)
Low
Low
High
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e
)
Alternative B
Low
Low
High
(Least Desirable Quadrant)(High Cost Low Benefit) (High Cost High Benefit)
(Low Cost Low Benefit)
Benefit
C o s
t(Maximum allowable costs)
( B a s e
l i n e
S c o r e
)
( M a x p o s s
i b l e S c o r e
)
Low
Low
High
E a s y D e c i s i o n H a r d
D e c i s
i o n
H a r d
D e c i s
i o n
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6. Risk-Benefit Chart
Risk Assessment
Severity
P r o b a b i l i t y 9 (High Risk - Bad)
876
(Low Risk - Good) 1 2 3 4 5
Risk Assessment
Severity
P r o b a b i l i t y 9 (High Risk - Bad)
876
(Low Risk - Good) 1 2 3 4 5
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
LowLowLow Benefit
R i s k
Low
90%50% 60% 70% 80%10% 20% 30% 40%
1
5
4
3
2
9
8
7
6
( A c c e p
t a b l e S o
l u t i o n
)
( I d e a
l S o
l u t i o n
)
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
LowRisk
HighRisk
LowLowLow
R i s k
Low
1
5
4
3
2
9
8
7
6
( A c c e p
t a b l e S o
l u t i o n
)
( I d e a
l S o
l u t i o n
)
Alternative B
Alternative A
Alternative D
Alternative C
Alternative B
Alternative A
Alternative D
Alternative C
Alternative B
Alternative A
Alternative D
Alternative C
Alternative B
Alternative A
Alternative D
Alternative C
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Types or Subsets of Trade Studies
Single CriterionChoice
Pros/ConsTrade Off Study
MultipleCriteria Selection
Pugh Controlled
Convergence Relative Comparison
(Basic)
Relative Comparison(Advanced)
Complete Trade Study
Single Criterion
Pros/Cons (Unique and Common),Single CriterionSingle CriterionSingle Criterion
Multiple Criteria with priority,Pros/Cons (Unique and Common)Pros/Cons (Unique and Common)Pros/Cons (Unique and Common)
Baseline / Optimum Solution, MultipleCriteria with priority
Baseline / Optimum Solution, MultipleCriteria with priority
Criteria Scoring, Criteria Weighting,Sensitivity Study, Baseline / Optimum Solution,Multiple Criteria with prioritywith prioritywith priority
Uncertainty/Confidence, two-tier criteria,Sensitivity Study,Sensitivity Study,Sensitivity Study, Criteria Scoring, CriteriaWeighting, Baseline / Standard, Multiple Criteria
O B J E C T I V E
S U B J E C T I V E
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Summary CMMI Level III compliant Decision Analysis and Problem
Resolution
Six unique features are introduced to enhance Trade Studies 14 th INCOSE International Symposium
Paper presentation directed to engineers
15 th INCOSE International Symposium Paper presentation directed to program managers and customers
Four hour tutorial on Trade Studies
Patent Pending 10/890,838 filed 12 July for this process
DAU is developing on line class for DAU students. Part of systems engineering
Soon to be part of Program Management series
Plan to develop class for industry based on these concepts.
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Contact Information
StrategicStrategic ee --Business Solutions, Inc.Business Solutions, Inc.3 Bethesda Metro Center, Suite 7003 Bethesda Metro Center, Suite 700 --1A1ABethesda, Maryland 20814, USABethesda, Maryland 20814, USA
(877) NOW(877) NOW --SeBSSeBS
Email:Email: [email protected]@Sebsolutions.com
Web site:Web site: www.SeBSolutions.comwww.SeBSolutions.com
Art Felix, LSS Black [email protected]
(805) 914-4482
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