AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
Population aging
a common challenge for Europe
Jitka Rychtaříková
Department of Demography and Geodemography
Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague
Albertov 6, 128 43 Praha, Czech Republic
[email protected] +420 221951420
Czech Republic
past, present,
and future
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
Outline
■ Data
■ Population change between 2009 and 2060
▪ natural change
▪ net migration
■ Senior population: upcoming patterns
■ Europe’s divide today and in the future
■ Discussing assumptions
■ Conclusions
CEFRES 18.12.2008 3
José Manuel Barroso:
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
Demographic change
is now one of the three major
forces remodeling Europe,
alongside globalization and
technological change.
CEFRES 18.12.2008 4
EUROPOP2008
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
Eurostat projection EUROPOP 2008 convergence scenario; convergence year 2150; (Released 25.4.2008)
EUROPOP2008 (EUROpean POpulation Projections, base year 2008)
convergence scenario contains statistical information on population
projections with reference to:
- projected January 1st population by sex and single year of age
- projected vital events (live births and deaths)
- assumptions concerning total fertility rate, life expectancy at
birth by gender and international migration
Data comprises the EU27 Member States, Norway and Switzerland.
Population : From January 1st 2008 to January 1st 2061
Assumptions and demographic events: 2008 - 2060
The methodology essentially consists of setting the values of the demographic indicators
for the convergence year 2150. Across countries, fertility and mortality converge to the
“forerunners”. Migration flows will converge to zero net migration in the same convergence
year 2150.
CEFRES 18.12.2008 5
Two turning points for EU27: 2015 and 2035
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
2015: natural increase will convert in natural decrease
2035: start of the population decline
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0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2060/2009
2035/2009
2015/2009
Change in total population over time
Sorted acccording to 2060/2009
CEFRES 18.12.2008 6
Misfortunate Eastern and Central Europe
seems to reemerge
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
Between 2009 and 2015 (or 2035 or 2060), the largest
population decline is expected in Bulgaria, Latvia,
Lithuania, and Romania.
The profound decrease will also be experienced by
populations in Central Europe (Poland, Slovakia,
Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic).
The previously high mortality in Eastern and Central
Europe (with the exception of West Germany) will thus face
a new threat of depopulation, this time primarily
due to a long-term low or lowest low fertility.
CEFRES 18.12.2008 7
Three country groups:
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
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Rep
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EU
27
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Italy
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Start year of population decline
populations already declining
populations still growing
Populations already declining, starting to decline, rising by 2060
CEFRES 18.12.2008 8 AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Estonia, Germany,
and Hungary are projected to follow a decreasing trajectory for their
population over the whole period of 2009-2060.
Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic will start a population
decline first, later followed by Greece, Malte, Finland, Netherlands,
and Italy. After the year 2045, population will decrease in Spain,
Portugal, and Austria.
Populations of Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway, the United
Kingdom, Switzerland, Sweden, France, Belgium, and Denmark are
projected to follow a continuously rising trajectory over the whole
projection period.
Three types of population dynamics:
CEFRES 18.12.2008 9
Natural change and net migration for selected years in EU27
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
From 2015 on, deaths will outnumber live births
and positive net migration will be the only population growth factor
From 2035 on, net migration will not compensate the birth deficit
-2000000
-1500000
-1000000
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Net migration
Natural increase/decrease
Total increase/decrease
million
CEFRES 18.12.2008 10
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
The population of the EU27 will gradually rise from
499.7 million in 2009 to 520.7 million in 2035
and thereafter gradually decline to 505.7 million on
January 1st 2060.
The issue of critical fertility figures primarily focuses on two crucial
thresholds relating to the total fertility rate: the first limit, which represents
a very low fertility category that has TFR less than 1.5, and the second limit
of TFR below 1.3 that indicates the lowest low fertility population
When using stable population modeling, the threshold with a TFR at 1.5
means that a population size will decrease by half within the next 65
years, while the lowest low fertility figure with a TFR at 1.3 will decrease
the population by half within the next 44 years.
The main driver of the future EU population development is
fertility rate.
CEFRES 18.12.2008 11
Population aging (increase in the proportion of people age 65+ or 60+)
is the most challenging phenomenon in the 21st century.
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
It is the outcome of the demographic transition from high to low
levels of fertility and mortality.
The role of international migration in this process has been less
important than that of fertility and mortality.
The older population itself is aging and the oldest-old (age 80+)
represent the fastest growing age group.
Population aging is a historically unprecedented
and likely irreversible phenomenon.
Population aging has implications on family composition and living
arrangements, intergenerational transfers, pension system,
health care system, etc.
CEFRES 18.12.2008 12
There is no correlation in the share of 65+ between 2009 and 2060
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
r = + 0,134
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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2009 2060% age 65+
Sorted according to 2060
CEFRES 18.12.2008 13
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
Young populations of today will become the oldest
The population is projected to become older in all EU member
states, Norway and Switzerland.
The share of people age 65+ is currently between 12% (Cyprus)
and 20% (Germany, Italy). However, the figure will at least double in
all EU 27+2 countries.
In 2060, the share of people age 65+ is expected to reach a
minimum of 24% (Luxembourg) and a maximum of 36% (Poland).
The oldest populations in 2060 will be: Poland (36.2), Slovakia
(36.1), Romania (35.0), Lithuania (34.7), Latvia (34.4), Bulgaria (34.2).
The“youngest“ in 2060: Luxembourg (23.6), United Kingdom (24.7),
Denmark (25.0)
CEFRES 18.12.2008 14
The oldest and the poorest
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
Denmark
Ireland
Norway
Cyprus
France
Belgium
Sweden
Netherlands
Switzerland
Finland
Austria
Portugal
Estonia
Greece
Hungary
Germany
Malta
Italy
Spain
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Bulgaria
Latvia
Romania
Lithuania
Slovakia
Poland
2060 2009
Old-age dependency ratio (population at age of: 65+/20-64*100)
Sorted according to 2060
CEFRES 18.12.2008 15
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
The old-age dependency ratio (OADR) will double
for EU27 from 28 to 59 (65+/20-64)*100
The old-age dependency ratio shows the same trend as the
percentage of 65+
It will be the highest among eight new member states (Poland,
Slovakia, Lithuania, etc.), followed by Spain, Italy, etc.
It will be the lowest in Luxembourg, United Kingdom, and
Denmark
OADR
2009 TFR 2060
e0(males)
2060
OADR
2060 -0,013 -0,821 -0684
Coefficient of correlation
There is no correlation between the current and projected OADR
CEFRES 18.12.2008 16
Living more and reproducing less: conditions in 2007-2008
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
Factor 1 Factor 2
Total fertility rate 0,762 0,021
Male life expectancy at birth 0,881 0,092
Old-age dependency ratio 0,019 0,986
Crude rate of population change 0,816 -0,478
Explained variability 51% 30%
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis
Lower fertility, shorter survival,
negative population change
Higher fertility, longer survival,
positive population change
Hig
he
r O
AD
R
Lo
we
r O
AD
R
CEFRES 18.12.2008 17
Demographic continuum in 2060 for EU27+Norway+Switzerland
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
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2060
Factor scores
Factor
Total fertility rate 0,844
Male life expectancy at birth 0,807
Old-age dependency ratio -0,970
Crude rate of population change 0,969
Explained variability 81,10%
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis
Lower fertility, shorter
survival, negative
population change, and
high OADR
Higher fertility, longer
survival, positive
population change, and
lower OADR
CEFRES 18.12.2008 18
Assumptions:
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
The lengthening of human life will continue. New and old members of the
EU27 are expected to converge toward similar survival patterns.
Future old generations will be healthier, more educated, and more self-
sufficient.
Realistic assumptions
Less realistic assumptions
It is questionable wheter EU countries will converge in fertility behavior.
It is also unlikely that total fertility rate will increase in lowest low fertility
populations or that it will approach the replacement level.
CEFRES 18.12.2008 19
Current fertility and future prospects for Europe
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
Slo
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Po
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Fra
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TFR 2007
TFR 2060
Europop2008: Convergence scenario (convergence year 2150)
Is the expected TFR increase realistic in low fertility countries ?
Sorted according to 2060
CEFRES 18.12.2008 20
Rethinking age and aging
by Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov, Population Bulletin, Vol.63, No.4, 2008
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
With advances in health and life expectancy, the meaning
of the number of years lived has changed.
Prospective age
assigns ages to
people on the basis of
their remaining life
expectancies in a
reference year, not on
the number of years
that they have
already lived.
CEFRES 18.12.2008 21
Conclusions
AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27
■Europe will remain the world’s oldest region into the 21st century.
■ In the process of population aging, fertility was and still remains the
primary important driver while mortality starts gaining increased
importance.
■Population aging may be seen as a human success story—the triumph
of public health, medical advancements, and economic development. (Global Aging : The challenge of success by K.Kinsella and D.R. Phillips, Population Bulletin, Vol.60, No.1, 2005)
■However, in the future, countries of former Eastern Europe will
accumulate all of the disadvantages:
Being the oldest, experiencing the lowest fertility, shorter life
expectancy, and having the lowest GDP.
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