Population aging a common challenge for Europe · 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055...

AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27

Population aging

a common challenge for Europe

Jitka Rychtaříková

Department of Demography and Geodemography

Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague

Albertov 6, 128 43 Praha, Czech Republic

[email protected] +420 221951420

Czech Republic

past, present,

and future


Outline

■ Data

■ Population change between 2009 and 2060

▪ natural change

▪ net migration

■ Senior population: upcoming patterns

■ Europe’s divide today and in the future

■ Discussing assumptions

■ Conclusions

CEFRES 18.12.2008 3

José Manuel Barroso:


Demographic change

is now one of the three major

forces remodeling Europe,

alongside globalization and

technological change.

CEFRES 18.12.2008 4

EUROPOP2008


Eurostat projection EUROPOP 2008 convergence scenario; convergence year 2150; (Released 25.4.2008)

EUROPOP2008 (EUROpean POpulation Projections, base year 2008)

convergence scenario contains statistical information on population

projections with reference to:

- projected January 1st population by sex and single year of age

- projected vital events (live births and deaths)

- assumptions concerning total fertility rate, life expectancy at

birth by gender and international migration

Data comprises the EU27 Member States, Norway and Switzerland.

Population : From January 1st 2008 to January 1st 2061

Assumptions and demographic events: 2008 - 2060

The methodology essentially consists of setting the values of the demographic indicators

for the convergence year 2150. Across countries, fertility and mortality converge to the

“forerunners”. Migration flows will converge to zero net migration in the same convergence

year 2150.

CEFRES 18.12.2008 5

Two turning points for EU27: 2015 and 2035


2015: natural increase will convert in natural decrease

2035: start of the population decline

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2035/2009

2015/2009

Change in total population over time

Sorted acccording to 2060/2009

CEFRES 18.12.2008 6

Misfortunate Eastern and Central Europe

seems to reemerge


Between 2009 and 2015 (or 2035 or 2060), the largest

population decline is expected in Bulgaria, Latvia,

Lithuania, and Romania.

The profound decrease will also be experienced by

populations in Central Europe (Poland, Slovakia,

Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic).

The previously high mortality in Eastern and Central

Europe (with the exception of West Germany) will thus face

a new threat of depopulation, this time primarily

due to a long-term low or lowest low fertility.

CEFRES 18.12.2008 7

Three country groups:


2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

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EU

27

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Start year of population decline

populations already declining

populations still growing

Populations already declining, starting to decline, rising by 2060

CEFRES 18.12.2008 8 AAG, 2009 Annual Meeting, Las Vegas March 22-27

Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Estonia, Germany,

and Hungary are projected to follow a decreasing trajectory for their

population over the whole period of 2009-2060.

Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic will start a population

decline first, later followed by Greece, Malte, Finland, Netherlands,

and Italy. After the year 2045, population will decrease in Spain,

Portugal, and Austria.

Populations of Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway, the United

Kingdom, Switzerland, Sweden, France, Belgium, and Denmark are

projected to follow a continuously rising trajectory over the whole

projection period.

Three types of population dynamics:

CEFRES 18.12.2008 9

Natural change and net migration for selected years in EU27


From 2015 on, deaths will outnumber live births

and positive net migration will be the only population growth factor

From 2035 on, net migration will not compensate the birth deficit

-2000000

-1500000

-1000000

-500000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Net migration

Natural increase/decrease

Total increase/decrease

million

CEFRES 18.12.2008 10


The population of the EU27 will gradually rise from

499.7 million in 2009 to 520.7 million in 2035

and thereafter gradually decline to 505.7 million on

January 1st 2060.

The issue of critical fertility figures primarily focuses on two crucial

thresholds relating to the total fertility rate: the first limit, which represents

a very low fertility category that has TFR less than 1.5, and the second limit

of TFR below 1.3 that indicates the lowest low fertility population

When using stable population modeling, the threshold with a TFR at 1.5

means that a population size will decrease by half within the next 65

years, while the lowest low fertility figure with a TFR at 1.3 will decrease

the population by half within the next 44 years.

The main driver of the future EU population development is

fertility rate.

CEFRES 18.12.2008 11

Population aging (increase in the proportion of people age 65+ or 60+)

is the most challenging phenomenon in the 21st century.


It is the outcome of the demographic transition from high to low

levels of fertility and mortality.

The role of international migration in this process has been less

important than that of fertility and mortality.

The older population itself is aging and the oldest-old (age 80+)

represent the fastest growing age group.

Population aging is a historically unprecedented

and likely irreversible phenomenon.

Population aging has implications on family composition and living

arrangements, intergenerational transfers, pension system,

health care system, etc.

CEFRES 18.12.2008 12

There is no correlation in the share of 65+ between 2009 and 2060


r = + 0,134

0

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25

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35

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2009 2060% age 65+

Sorted according to 2060

CEFRES 18.12.2008 13


Young populations of today will become the oldest

The population is projected to become older in all EU member

states, Norway and Switzerland.

The share of people age 65+ is currently between 12% (Cyprus)

and 20% (Germany, Italy). However, the figure will at least double in

all EU 27+2 countries.

In 2060, the share of people age 65+ is expected to reach a

minimum of 24% (Luxembourg) and a maximum of 36% (Poland).

The oldest populations in 2060 will be: Poland (36.2), Slovakia

(36.1), Romania (35.0), Lithuania (34.7), Latvia (34.4), Bulgaria (34.2).

The“youngest“ in 2060: Luxembourg (23.6), United Kingdom (24.7),

Denmark (25.0)

CEFRES 18.12.2008 14

The oldest and the poorest


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Luxembourg

United Kingdom

Denmark

Ireland

Norway

Cyprus

France

Belgium

Sweden

Netherlands

Switzerland

Finland

Austria

Portugal

Estonia

Greece

Hungary

Germany

Malta

Italy

Spain

Czech Republic

Slovenia

Bulgaria

Latvia

Romania

Lithuania

Slovakia

Poland

2060 2009

Old-age dependency ratio (population at age of: 65+/20-64*100)


CEFRES 18.12.2008 15


The old-age dependency ratio (OADR) will double

for EU27 from 28 to 59 (65+/20-64)*100

The old-age dependency ratio shows the same trend as the

percentage of 65+

It will be the highest among eight new member states (Poland,

Slovakia, Lithuania, etc.), followed by Spain, Italy, etc.

It will be the lowest in Luxembourg, United Kingdom, and

Denmark

OADR

2009 TFR 2060

e0(males)

2060

OADR

2060 -0,013 -0,821 -0684

Coefficient of correlation

There is no correlation between the current and projected OADR

CEFRES 18.12.2008 16

Living more and reproducing less: conditions in 2007-2008


Factor 1 Factor 2

Total fertility rate 0,762 0,021

Male life expectancy at birth 0,881 0,092

Old-age dependency ratio 0,019 0,986

Crude rate of population change 0,816 -0,478

Explained variability 51% 30%

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis

Lower fertility, shorter survival,

negative population change

Higher fertility, longer survival,

positive population change

Hig

he

r O

AD

R

Lo

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r O

AD

R

CEFRES 18.12.2008 17

Demographic continuum in 2060 for EU27+Norway+Switzerland


-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

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2060

Factor scores

Factor

Total fertility rate 0,844

Male life expectancy at birth 0,807

Old-age dependency ratio -0,970

Crude rate of population change 0,969

Explained variability 81,10%

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis

Lower fertility, shorter

survival, negative

population change, and

high OADR

Higher fertility, longer

survival, positive

population change, and

lower OADR

CEFRES 18.12.2008 18

Assumptions:


The lengthening of human life will continue. New and old members of the

EU27 are expected to converge toward similar survival patterns.

Future old generations will be healthier, more educated, and more self-

sufficient.

Realistic assumptions

Less realistic assumptions

It is questionable wheter EU countries will converge in fertility behavior.

It is also unlikely that total fertility rate will increase in lowest low fertility

populations or that it will approach the replacement level.

CEFRES 18.12.2008 19

Current fertility and future prospects for Europe


1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

2,2

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TFR 2007

TFR 2060

Europop2008: Convergence scenario (convergence year 2150)

Is the expected TFR increase realistic in low fertility countries ?


CEFRES 18.12.2008 20

Rethinking age and aging

by Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov, Population Bulletin, Vol.63, No.4, 2008


With advances in health and life expectancy, the meaning

of the number of years lived has changed.

Prospective age

assigns ages to

people on the basis of

their remaining life

expectancies in a

reference year, not on

the number of years

that they have

already lived.

CEFRES 18.12.2008 21

Conclusions


■Europe will remain the world’s oldest region into the 21st century.

■ In the process of population aging, fertility was and still remains the

primary important driver while mortality starts gaining increased

importance.

■Population aging may be seen as a human success story—the triumph

of public health, medical advancements, and economic development. (Global Aging : The challenge of success by K.Kinsella and D.R. Phillips, Population Bulletin, Vol.60, No.1, 2005)

■However, in the future, countries of former Eastern Europe will

accumulate all of the disadvantages:

Being the oldest, experiencing the lowest fertility, shorter life

expectancy, and having the lowest GDP.

Population aging a common challenge for Europe · 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055...

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