Planning challenges for RE Deployment
North African perspective
Addressing Variable Renewables in Long-Term Energy Planning (AVRIL) : 2-3 March 2015
Rim BoukhchinaTechnical Senior Expert
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About RCREEE
Mission : “To enable a sustainable growth in Arab states’ adoption of
renewable energy and energy efficiency applications and initiatives
through leading regional policy dialogues, learning, and research.”
RCREEE is an independent not-for-profit organization with
16 Arab member states
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Our Work Areas
Research and Analysis
• Indices and indicators
• Regional benchmarking
• Regional information
and knowledge
management systems
• Monitoring and
assessment
• Studies and publications
Capacity Development
• New technology
orientation
• Knowledge exchange
• Professional internships
• Workshops and trainings
• Institutional
development
• Compliance guidelines
Technical Assistance
• Certification and credentialing
• Labeling, standardization schemes and guidelines
• Policies and regulations design
• Implementation planning
• Tender design and guidelines
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Electricity Mix in Arab region
31%
30%
25%
3%2% 8%
1% 0%
Steam Gas CC Diesel Coal Hydro Wind Solar34%
22%
32%
2% 2% 6%1% 0%
Steam Gas CC Diesel Coal Hydro Wind Solar
Installed Capacity
RE share including Hydro : 9 %
RE share without Hydro : 1%
Electricity Generation
RE share including Hydro : 7.1 %
RE share without Hydro : 0.7 %
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RE Share in the Arab Region
88%
11%1%
Hydro Wind Solar
90%
8% 1%
Hydro Wind Solar
Installed Capacity Electricity Generation
Low RE share in the Arab Region
Wind : 1% and 0.6% respectively in the installed capacity and electricity generation
Solar : 0.1 %
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Electricity Mix in North African Countries
29%
26%
32%
1%
3% 7% 2% 0%
Steam Gas CC Diesel Coal Hydro Wind Solar
32%
17%
39%
0%4%
5%1% 0%
Steam Gas CC Diesel Coal Hydro Wind Solar
Installed Capacity
RE share including Hydro : 9.25 %
RE share without Hydro : 2 %
Electricity Generation
RE share including Hydro : 6.5 %
RE share without Hydro : 1.1 %
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RE Share in North African Countries
Installed Capacity Electricity Generation
More important contribution of wind Energy even if RE share still low
Wind : 2 % and 1 % respectively in the installed capacity and electricity generation
Solar : 0.2 %
78%
21% 1%
Hydro Wind Solar
83%
15% 2%
Hydro Wind Solar
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RE Share in North African Countries
Egypt
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
1.9%
0.1%
5.6%
0.2%
6.7%
10.9%
0.1%
6.9%
1.7%
30.8%
RE share with Hydro RE share without Hydro
Egypt
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
9.1%
1.3%
1.5%
24.0%
1.8%
5.1%
6.7%
0.1%
0.4%
0.2%
0.3%
Hydro Wind Solar
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RE targets in North African Countries
Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total Wind PV CSP Others
Goals
NAC aims to reach
48.2 GW within
2020 and 2030
2013 2015 2020 20300
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
474 MW
AnnuallyAlgeria
Wind energy Objectives
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RE Deployment Challenges
Algeria
Wind energy Objectives
2013 2015 2020 20300
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
474 MW
Annually
2013 2015 20200
10002000300040005000600070008000
Egypt
Wind energy Objectives
1200 MW
Annually
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RE Integration Challenges
Connection
& Electricity
Infrastructure
Challenges
2
5
3
4
1
Intermittence &
Variability
Management of Electricity Generation
Grid Capacity &
Infrastructure
VRE Planning and Prevision Tools
Reserve Capacities
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Existing Long-term Investment Planning Models
1
Do not consider
RE Power Plant
Cost effective
analyses
2 3
Based on
National Load
Curve
Regional needs and request for long term planning tool based on national energy context and taking into consideration RE
characteristics and specificity
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Planning Challenges for RE Deployment
Political decision for RE objectives
Weakness of national grid infrastructure in the region
Interconnections between NA countries even if they exist are underexploited
Subsidies on conventional fuels for electricity production
Extra cost and high investment of RE technologies
Lack of Storage System (Hydro Pump-Storage, others)
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Planning Challenges for RE Deployment
Limited interconnection with European countries
Absence of regional market
Lack of RE Grid Codes
Long-term investment planning models do not take into consideration the variability and intermittence of RE
Lack of competiveness and national capabilities mainly in long term planning of RE and prevision of variable resources
Miscommunication between policy makers and stakeholders in the power sector
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Elements to be Considered in the Development of the Planning Model
National RE Potential
Load Curve and its future tendency
Impact of Grid interconnection
Extra cost of RE integration
Intermittence and Variability of wind
and PV
Reserve solution , Capacity credit and
reserve margin
Possibility of
regional planning
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Elements to be Considered in the Development of the Planning Model
National RE Potential
Load Curve and its future tendency
Impact of Grid interconnection
Extra cost of RE integration
Intermittence and Variability of wind
and PV
Reserve solution , Capacity credit and
reserve margin
Possibility of
regional planning
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Load Curve and Future Tendency
The growing of Energy Demand 6-8% annually The specificity of the load in the region
of curve
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
Maghreb Algerie Libye Maroc Tunisie
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Elements to be Considered in the Development of the Planning Model
National RE Potential
Load Curve and its future tendency
Impact of Grid interconnection
Extra cost of RE integration
Intermittence and Variability of wind
and PV
Reserve solution , Capacity credit and
reserve margin
Possibility of
regional planning
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Interconnection in the region
NAC are interconnected and also connected to the European network through the interconnection between Morocco and Spain but electricity exchanges
between countries remain underdeveloped and underused. Ambitious interconnection plans through submarine HVDC cables are forecasted between
South and North Mediterranean Countries.
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Elements to be Considered in the Development of the Planning Model
National RE Potential
Load Curve and its future tendency
Impact of Grid interconnection
Extra cost of RE integration
Intermittence and Variability of wind
and PV
Reserve solution , Capacity credit and
reserve margin
Possibility of
regional planning
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High RE potential in the region
Solar Potential
Wind Potential
The region is endowed with a high potential of RE that could be a real response to
the growing demand for electricity and can contribute to the security of the energy
sector in the long-term and to an economic growth
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Elements to be Considered in the Development of the Planning Model
National RE Potential
Load Curve and its future tendency
Impact of Grid interconnection
Extra cost of RE integration
Intermittence and Variability of wind
and PV
Reserve solution , Capacity credit and
reserve margin
Possibility of
regional planning
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Variability of RE Generation
Seasonal Variability
of Wind Energy
Sudden fluctuation
of PV Generation
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Elements to be Considered in the Development of the Planning Model
National RE Potential
Load Curve and its future tendency
Impact of Grid interconnection
Extra cost of RE integration
Intermittence and Variability of wind
and PV
Adopt the Model to Energy Context of North African Countries highlight the impact of RE integration on RE energy sector
Ensure the Grid stability and security
Reserve solution , Capacity credit and
reserve margin
Possibility of
regional planning
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To Summarize..
Planning in North African countries presents local gaps and challenges, however the adoption of good planning methodology and tools will offer an optimal energy-mix and the reduction of high investment cost in the long term beside the security of electricity sector.
Importance of assessment of current existing modeling tools and analysis of their weakness.
Importance of adapting the planning models to specific context of the region.
Promote communication and awareness targeting policy makers and different stakeholders to highlight the importance of planning in RE deployment.
Strengthen national capacities and focusing capacity development activities on planning, building and operating power grids with a high share of renewable generation in the energy mix and management of peak and off-peak load .
Importance of regional and integrated planning that could reduce margin reserve and therefore additional investments in power generation would be saved.
Plans are nothing; planning is everything (D.Eisenhower)…
Thank you for your attention
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