National programme underNEC Directive :
The French experience
Improving Air Quality in the enlarged EU : Workshop on Plansand Programmes of Air Quality and National Emission Ceilings Directives
Brussels – 1&2 September 2004
Marc RICO – Ministry of Ecology & Sustainable DevelopmentBénédicte OUDART - CITEPA
CONTENTS
1. The French context
2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan
3. Technical study : OPTINEC- scenarios- regulations taken into account- uncertainties- results
4. Contents of the national plan
5. Assessment and updating of the national plan
6. Conclusion
CONTENTS
1. The French context
2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan
3. Technical study : OPTINEC- scenarios- regulations taken into account- uncertainties- results
4. Contents of the national plan
5. Assessment and up-dating of the national plan
6. Conclusion
SO2 emissions since 1960
0
250
500
750
1 000
1 250
1 500
1 750
2 000
2 250
2 500
2 750
3 000
3 250
3 500
3 750
4 000
1960
1965
1970
1973
1975
1980
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003 (
e)
(e) estimation préliminaire
CITEPA février 2004
CORALIE / format secten
Gg = kt
Autres
Autres transports
Transport routier
Agriculture/sylviculture
Résidentiel / tertiaire
Industrie manufacturière
Transformation énergie
NOx emissions since 1960
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
1 100
1 200
1 300
1 400
1 500
1 600
1 700
1 800
1 900
2 000
2 1001
96
0
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
(e
)
(e) estimation préliminaire
CITEPA février 2004CORALIE / format secten
Gg = kt
Autres
Autres transports
Transport routier
Agriculture/sylviculture
Résidentiel / tertiaire
Industrie manufacturière
Transformation énergie
VOC emissions since 1988
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
2 200
2 400
2 600
2 800
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
(e)
(e) estimation préliminaire
CITEPA février 2004CORALIE / format secten
Gg = kt
Autres
Autres transports
Transport routier
Agriculture/sylviculture
Résidentiel / tertiaire
Industrie manufacturière
Transformation énergie
NH3 emissions since 1980
0
50100
150
200
250300
350
400450
500
550600
650
700
750800
8501
98
0
19
83
19
85
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
(e
)
(e) estimation préliminaire
CITEPA février 2004CORALIE / format secten
Gg = kt
Autres
Autres transports
Transport routier
Agriculture/sylviculture
Résidentiel / tertiaire
Industrie manufacturière
Transformation énergie
French targets
1990 emissions(Gothenburg Protocol
data)
1990 emission
s(2003
inventory data)
2002 emission
s
NEC directive ceilings
Emission
reduction
/2002
SO2 1 269 kt 1 326 kt 537 kt 375 kt - 30%
NOx 1 882 kt 1 897 kt 1 352 kt 810 kt - 40%
COV 2 957 kt 2 499 kt 1 542 kt 1 050 kt - 32%
NH3 814 kt 779 kt 778 kt 780 kt ~0%
National Climate Change Plan
• This plan has been adopted in 2000
• List of measures to comply with Kyoto protocol (stabilisation of emissions in 2010/1990)
• emission projections are based on the PNLCC energy scenario
•the review of the measures of the 2000 climate change plan is in progress
The NEC programme must be consistent withthe climate change plan
CONTENTS
1. The French context
2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan
3. Technical study : OPTINEC- scenarios- regulations taken into account- uncertainties- results
4. Contents of the national plan
5. Assessment and up-date of the national plan
6. Conclusion
• 4 Ministries : Environment Industry / Energy
Transport / HouseholdsAgriculture
• The French Agency for Environment and Energy Management (ADEME)
• Industry representatives
• Associations for Environmental protection
Setting-up of the Transboundary Air Pollution Forum(about 50 members from Administration and Industry + technical experts )
The French organisation to draw up the national plan
Many stakeholders involved :
The French organisation to draw up the national plan
Work in 2 steps :• 1st step : technical study (OPTINEC) (January 2001 – July 2002)
- to estimate emission projections for 2010- to identify technical measures to reduce emissions- to identify possible financial instruments to reduce emissions
Steering group to validate the scenario to use as a basis for emission projections and to select possible additional measures to incorporate into the national plan • 2nd step : drawing up and adopting the national plan (July 2002 – July 2003)
- validation of technical and political options to reduce emissions- drafting the national plan
- consultation committees (administration, industry, NGOs, National Council for Classified Installations (CSIC) and National Air Council (CNA)
- official adoption by the Government (8 July 2003)
CONTENTS
1. The French context
2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan
3. Technical study : OPTINEC- scenarios- regulations taken into account- uncertainties- results
4. Contents of the national plan
5. Assessment and up-dating of the national plan
6. Conclusion
OPTINEC STUDY
• INVESTIGATED SCENARIOS 4 energy scenarios
- S1 scenario – market scenario (1998)- S3 scenario – environmental scenario (1998)- business as usual scenario (1999)- PNLCC scenario (climate change plan scenario) (2000)
2 agricultural scenarios- business as usual scenario (trends)- MAGALI scenario (based on an economic model) (2000)
4 scenarios to evaluate uncertainties on activity data
• OPTINEC SCENARIO
selected scenario for the NEC programme : PNLCC scenario for energy MAGALI scenario for agriculture
Previsions become out of date quickly: data have thus been updated for electricity production, refineries and transport
Available at : http://www.citepa.org/publications/etudes_citepa.htmhttp://www.ineris.fr/recherches/download/etude_eco.pdf
OPTINEC STUDY
•OPTINEC SCENARIO – ECONOMIC HYPOTHESES
GDP growth : 2.3% (1997 – 2010)
Oil price : 25 $/barrel
Gas price : 3.3 $/Mbtu
Coal price : 40-50 $/t
Population growth : +0.5% 1995-2005+0.4% 2005-2010
OPTINEC STUDY
•LIST OF DIRECTIVES AND NATIONAL REGULATIONS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
• LCP directive (2001/80/CE)• Sulphur content of fuels directive (99/32/CE)• Quality of petrol and diesel fuels directive (98/69/CE)• Incineration of waste directive (2000/76/CE)• HC emission from petrol distribution (stage I & stage II directives)• Limitation of VOC from organic solvents directive (99/13/EC)• EURO standards I-V for vehicle emissions (98/69/CE)
EU directives
National regulations
• regulations on classified installations (a part of IPPC directive)• regulation on glass industry• regulation on cement industry • regulation on small combustion installations (2-20 MW)• regulation on turbines and stationary combustion installations
OPTINEC STUDY
• EVALUATION OF UNCERTAINTIES
SO2
emissionsNOx
emissionsVOC
emissionsNH3
emissions
Uncertainties 15% 45% 30% 80%
Emission uncertainties include :- uncertainties on activity data based on different investigated scenarios- uncertainties on emission factors
• OPTINEC/RAINS EMISSION COMPARISON (REF SCENARIOS)
Emissions (kt) SO2 NOx VOC NH3
OPTINEC REF 461 988 954 857
IIASA REF 448 858 1223 777
OPTINEC STUDY
• RESULTS FOR SO2
2010 emissions : 461 ktNEC ceiling : 375 kt
SO2 Emissions - 2010 Emissions (kt)
share (%)
Refineries 140 30
Industrial combustion 129 28
Power plants 97 21
Domestic sector 31 7
District heating 20 4
Required reduction86 kt (19%) tomeet the ceiling
Measures established in the Plan
• ENVISAGED ADDITIONAL MEASURES FOR SO2
INDUSTRY
- stricter ELVs for refineries (bubble concept)
- stricter ELVs for larger CPs (>500 MW) (more stringent than LCPD)
- reduction in SO2 emissions in various industrial processes (glass, cement,
iron & steel industry)
Measures implemented under IPPC Directive and LCP Directive
TRANSPORT AND OTHER MOBILE SOURCES
- reduction in sulphur content of petrol and diesel to 10 ppm (road transport)
- use of diesel instead of light fuel-oil for off-road engines
Expected reduction : about 100 kt
OPTINEC STUDY
• RESULTS FOR NOx
2010 emissions : 988 ktNEC ceiling : 810 kt
NOx Emissions - 2010 Emissions (kt)
share (%)
Road transport 390 40
Other mobile sources 243 25
Industrial combustion 135 14
Domestic sector 78 8
Power plants 75 8
Required reduction178 kt (18%) tomeet the ceiling
• ENVISAGED ADDITIONAL MEASURES FOR NOx INDUSTRY
- stricter ELVs for refineries (bubble concept)
- stricter ELVs for larger CPs (>500 MW) (more stringent than LCPD)
- reduction in NOx emissions in various industrial processes (glass, cement,
iron & steel industry)
- reduction in emissions from small combustion installations (20-50 MW)
Measures implemented under IPPC Directive and LCP Directive
RESIDENTIAL / COMMERCIAL / INSTITUTIONAL
- promotion of low-NOx boilers (tax incentive)
- reduction in energy consumption in existing buildings
TRANSPORT AND OTHER MOBILE SOURCES
- reduction in sulphur content of petrol and diesel to 10 ppm (road transport)
- development of non-road alternative transport modes
- adjusting port and airport charges to take emission levels into account
- incentives to renew existing stock of non-road mobile machinery
Expected reduction : about 150 kt
Measures established in the Plan
OPTINEC STUDY
• RESULTS FOR VOC
2010 emissions : 954 ktNEC ceiling : 1050 kt
VOC Emissions - 2010 Emissions (kt)
share (%)
Solvent use 320 33
Domestic sector (wood combustion) 211 22
Other mobile sources 129 14
Road transport 98 10
Industrial processes 84 9
Ceiling compliedwith
• ENVISAGED ADDITIONAL MEASURES FOR VOCs INDUSTRY
- reduction in non point source emissions (refineries and chemical
industry)
- measures to encourage the adoption of VOC emission reduction
scheme
- development of the use of products with low solvent content
RESIDENTIAL / COMMERCIAL / INSTITUTIONAL
- development of the use of products with low solvent content
- development of measures to encourage combustion of wood
in suitable conditions.
Measures established in the Plan
OPTINEC STUDY
• RESULTS FOR NH3
2010 emissions : 857 ktNEC ceiling : 780 kt
NH3 Emissions - 2010 Emissions (kt)
share (%)
Animal manure 668 78
Use of fertilizers 148 17
Required reduction77 kt (9%) tomeet the ceiling
• ENVISAGED ADDITIONAL MEASURES FOR NH3
AGRICULTURE
- adapting cattle feed
- reducing emissions of slurry stocks
- improving slurry spreading methods
- taking NH3 emissions into account in public policies
- informing farmers
Expected reduction : about 60 kt
Measures established in the Plan
CONTENTS
1. The French context
2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan
3. Technical study : OPTINEC- scenarios- regulations taken into account- uncertainties- results
4. Contents of the national plan
5. Assessment and up-dating of the national plan
6. Conclusion
Contents of the French programme
• Introduction
• Emission projections for 2010 sectoral breakdownuncertainties
• List of EU directives and national regulations taken into account
• Quantification of emission reductions to comply with ceilings
• List of implementing measures to comply with ceilings
• Assessment and updating of the national plan
Available at : http://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/PREPA_final_1.pdf
CONTENTS
1. The French context
2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan
3. Technical study : OPTINEC- scenarios- regulations taken into account- uncertainties- results
4. Contents of the national plan
5. Assessment and up-dating of the national plan
6. Conclusion
Assessment and updating of the national plan
AssessmentAnnual assessment of progress in emission reductionsAnnual presentation of progress to members of National Air Council
UpdatingUpdating of national plan at the latest in 2006 including :
- updating of emission projections- assessment of implementation of measures, updating list of measures- the results of a study on faisability of NOx tradable permits or NOx tax.
CONTENTS
1. The French context
2. The French organisation to draw up the national plan
3. Technical study : OPTINEC- scenarios- regulations taken into account- uncertainties- results
4. Contents of the national plan
5. Assessment and up-dating of the national plan
6. Conclusion
Conclusion
COMMENTS RELATIVE TO PLAN DRAWING UP
• the plan drawing up has enabled the different
stakeholders to become aware of the issues at stake and
to take action to implement the national Plan
• high level of uncertainties for emission projections : since
2000 activity levels have significantly changed for some
sectors, that increases the difficulty to draw up the Plan
• short timescale to draw up the plan
Conclusion
COMMENTS RELATIVE TO MEASURES TO IMPLEMENT
• short timescale to implement the measures : -structural measures requiring more time to implement,-certain measures (eg low NOx burners in the domestic sector, new EURO standards for vehicle emissions) depend on the rate at which the existing stock is renewed
• changes in emission factors over time(eg. NOx emission factor for heavy duty vehicles) but the ceilings are absolute values
• difficulties in getting measures that go beyond the EU directives accepted
Conclusion For some sectors, high efficiency of measures implemented at European level
-VOC reduction: the directive relative to the limitation of organic solvents in certain paints and vehicle refinishing products (2004/42/CE) is an example of these high efficiency and cost-effective measures-NOx reduction (road and non-road transport) : eg. Implementation of port and airport charges to take emission levels into account
Proposals for the CAFÉ programme-all MS feedbacks concerning NEC plans must be taken into account in the CAFÉ programme- NOx reduction ceilings will be difficult to achieve for several MS and the air quality limit value for NO2 will probably not be complied with in all zones : postpone 2010 deadline to 2015 ?
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