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Peter H. Jones @redesign SFI, OCAD University, Toronto Karl Schroeder @karlschroeder Futurist, advisor, author, Toronto Ursula Gobel @ulacan1 AVP Future Challenges, SSHRC, Ottawa Greg Van Alstyne @gregvan sLab, OCAD University, Toronto
Modes of Foresight in informing public policy and decision-making
Actionplanning,scenariosinformoptionalityormapemergingideologies. Fourmodesinpolicy:
• Foresight-ledanalysis • Collaborativeforesightengagement • Expert-ledpolicyproposals • Socialforesight
Jones,P.H.(2017).ThefuturesofCanadiangovernance:Foresightcompetenciesforpublicadministrationinthedigitalera.CanadianPublicAdministration.(inpress).
FiguremodifiedfromPopper,R.(2008).Howareforesightmethodsselected?”Foresight10(6):62–89. Peter H Jones | sLab.ocadu.ca
AnticipatoryDesigninPolicyFormation
Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.caPolicy Foresight: What Works & Why?
DigitalEraGovernance:ThecomingclashVanAlstyne,Jones,Candy betweendigitalcitizens&Westminster
Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.caPolicy Foresight: What Works & Why? Peter H Jones | sLab.ocadu.ca
ImaginingCanada’sFuture:FuturesofUrbanizationJones,Stein,VanAlstyne
Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.caPolicy Foresight: What Works & Why?
In the face of increasing urbanization worldwide, what future challenges do we anticipate for Southern Ontario, through 2030?
Method: Structured Dialogic Design (SDD)
ImaginingCanada’sFuture:FuturesofUrbanizationJones,Stein,VanAlstyne
Challenge 1 Advancing
a diverse and
inclusive society
Challenge 2 Enabling
equitable
access to ICT
Challenge 3Governing
ourselves
responsively
Challenge 5Overcoming
fear of change
Challenge 4 Designing
sustainable
cities
Challenge 7Transitioning to a digital
economy
Challenge 6Including
indigenous
rights in
planning
Challenge 8Upgrading
transportation systems
Challenge 9Stewarding
regional
ecosystems
Challenge 10Supporting our aging
population
Level VMost influencing
Level IV Significantly Influencing
Level IIIInfluenced
Level II Highly Influenced
“In the face of increasing urbanization worldwide, what future challenges do we anticipate for Southern Ontario, now through 2030?”
Peter H Jones | sLab.ocadu.ca
FutureofHumanTeamingwithAutonomousSystemsUSAirForceResearchLab
Peter H Jones | sLab.ocadu.ca
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Karl Schroeder Futurist, advisor, author, Toronto
Vision and method for policy futures & futures in policy making
Karl Schroeder
8 Karl Schroeder
ADVANCING KNOWLEDGE FOR CANADA’S FUTURE
ENABLINGEXCELLENCE,BUILDINGPARTNERSHIPS,CONNECTINGRESEARCHTOCANADIANS
UrsulaGobelAnticipationConference,UK
November2017
Our role
Federalagencymandatedtopromoteandsupportpostsecondary-basedresearchandtraininginthesocialsciencesandhumanities
Throughgrants,fellowshipsandscholarshipsSSHRC:
↘ Trainsthenextgenerationoftalented,creativethinkersanddoers
↘ Buildsknowledgeandunderstandingaboutpeople,culturesandsocieties
↘ Drivestheinnovationsthataddressthechallengesoftodayandtomorrow
Ursula Gobel
*$380.2millionforgrants,fellowshipsandscholarships
4,300volunteerexternalassessorsandexpertssupportthereviewoffundingapplications.
$0.94outofeveryallocateddollargoesdirectlytofundresearchersandstudents
Morethan4,300newgrants,fellowshipsandscholarshipsawarded
Over13,000fundingapplicationsreceivedFast Facts
Ursula Gobel
SSHRC’SCOMMUNITY
Canada’sSocialSciencesandHumanitiesResearchCommunity
21,000DoctoralstudentsinSSH
48,000MastersstudentsinSSH
24,000full-timeSSHfacultyteachers
SSHRC Support (as of 2016-2017)
9,600Awards
18,600ResearchersSupported↘ 3,400 International Researchers
8,400StudentsSupported↘ 4,700 Directly (scholarships) ↘ 3,700 Indirectly (grants)
3,200Partners↘ 330 Industry Partners
1,630PostdoctoralFellowsinCanada
Ursula Gobel
Enableexcellenceina
changingresearchlandscape
1Create
opportunitiesforresearchandtraining
throughcollaborativeinitiatives
2Connect
socialsciencesandhumanitiesresearch
withCanadians
3
OURSTRATEGICPRIORITIES:ADVANCING KNOWLEDGE FOR CANADA’S FUTURE
Ursula Gobel
2016-2020SSHRCStrategicPriorities ImaginingCanada’sFutureObjectives
Enableexcellenceinachangingresearchlandscape
Buildresearchpreparednessandgaincriticalinsightsintofuturechallengeareas
Createopportunitiesforresearchandtrainingthroughcollaborativeinitiative
Expandcross-sectorcollaborationandpartnershipswhileleveragingadditionalfundingforresearchandtraining
ConnectsocialsciencesandhumanitiesresearchwithCanadians
Mobilizeknowledgetoinformdecision-makingacrossthepublic,privateandnot-for-profitsectors
BUILDINGFUTURESLITERACY
Ursula Gobel
FOCUSONSIXFUTURECHALLENGEAREAS
16
NewWaysofLearning QuestforEnergy&NaturalResources EmergingTechnologies
ASuccessfulSharedFuturewithIndigenousPeoples
InterconnectedandEvolvingGlobalLandscape
GlobalPeakPopulation
Ursula Gobel
❑ 5KnowledgeSynthesisGrantscompetitions
❑ Multi-sector advisory groups provided input to
shape calls for proposals
❑ 123 KSG grants awarded (up to $25K)
❑ $3M invested
2014-2017ICFImplementationPlanStakeholderEngagement-KnowledgeSynthesis&Mobilization-Partnerships&Collaborations
Ursula Gobel
EXTENSIVEMULTI-SECTORENGAGEMENT
❑ 5 workshops and 4 forums organized
❑ Over 1,250 participants: researchers,
students, policy officials, community
and business sector representatives
❑ Extensive participation and support
from public policy sector
Ursula Gobel
- Op-edsbyKSGholderspublished
- SSHRCSummaryReportsonkeyfindingspublished
- InternationalcollaborationwithEmbassies
- Newrelationshipsbuiltbetweenresearchersand
non-academicpartners
- Scalinguptonewresearchprojectsand
applicationsinSSHRC’sfundingprograms
KnowledgeMobilization
Ursula Gobel
ExtensiveStakeholderEngagementandCollaboration
Ursula Gobel
ForesightonSocietalFutures
ResearchonEmergingIssues
FuturesinResearch&Training
SocietalTrends/Themes
ResearchinthePublicInterest
EmergingscholarlyIssues/themes
Leadership,Responsiveness,Flexibility,Agility
ICF2018-2021Framework
Ursula Gobel
ICF2018-2021Implementation
Scanning–Engaging–Implementing
January–June2018Conductforesightactivities:
·CompleteHorizonScan·Convenestakeholdersandpartnersacrossacademic,public,business¬-for-profitsectors·IntegrateSSHRCenvironmentalscanningandKSGfindingsIFC2014-2017·Ongoing:ResearchonEmergingIssues;Futuresinresearchandscholarship
July–December2018·ValidateHorizonScanfindings·ICFFallForum2018·IdentifyFutureChallenges·Ongoing:ResearchonEmergingIssues;Futuresinresearchandscholarship
January2019–March2021·Assessanddevelopactionplantoaddressfuturechallenges-Maintainactivestakeholderengagement·Ongoing:ResearchonEmergingIssues;Futuresinresearchandscholarship
Ursula Gobel
THANKYOU!
URSULAGOBEL,ASSOCIATEVICE-PRESIDENT,FUTURECHALLENGES
[email protected]@ULACAN1
@SSHRC_CRSH FACEBOOK YOUTUBE
Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.caPolicy Foresight: What Works & Why?
How can foresight inform & inspire critical public policy options?
Greg Van Alstyne Associate Professor, Faculty of Design Director, sLabOCAD University, Toronto
Policy Foresight: What Works & Why?
Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.ca
FOUNDED HERE 2008
Strategic Innovation Lab (sLab) is a centre of excellence at OCAD University We bring positive impact through foresight, design thinking, social innovation
Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne | sLab | OCAD University SFI + sLab Overview
sLab Groups
Flourishing Strongly Sustainable Business Models Systems Systemic Design Research Network SystemCityWellness Envision Health Communication Media Futures DEMO
Researchers include Profs. Bowes, Candy, Davies, Harfoush, Hunt, Jones, Kerr, Logan, Richards, Sellen, Stein, Van Alstyne
Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.ca
Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/
Why does policy need foresight?
“Research foresight is...the only plausible response to resolving conflicts over priority-setting.... Foresight provides … a systematic mechanism for coping with that complexity & interdependence as it affects long-term decisions on research, in particular facilitating policy-making where integration of activities across several fields is vital”—Martin & Irvine (1989, 3)
Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.ca
Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.caPolicy Foresight: What Works & Why?
Principles & Projects
Co-Creation Economic Futures for Ontario 2032Participation DesignJam Strangemaking Futures of Democracy
Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.caPolicy Foresight: What Works & Why?
Co-Creation“…creativity of designers and people not trained in design, working together in the design development process”—Sanders & Stappers (2008), Co-creation and the New Landscapes of Design
Economic Futures for Ontario 2032 Van Alstyne, Richards, Kerr, Harfoush, Stein, Schroeder, Chandler sLab & Ontario Public Service (OPS) co-facilitated & co-authored the study
xxx
Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.ca
Emerging and interconnected economies Will jurisdictional trade relations and economic power balance be:
Friendly Characterized by collaborative competition
Unfriendly Characterized by selective/exclusive trade relations
Climate change
Will predictability, pace, and human management of climate change be:
Progressive Changing at a manageable pace
Volatile Rapid, unpredictable, challenging change
Game-changing technologies
Will diffusion, control and accessibility of key technologies be:
Ubiquitous More widespread, accessible, or open
Concentrated More constrained, controlled, or closed
Economic Futures for Ontario 2032Critical Uncertainties
iSurvivor
Illustration: (cc) Ryan Lake
Dark & Stormy Night
Ontario Galactica
Northern Stars
Economic Futures for Ontario 2032: Scenarios
Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.caPolicy Foresight: What Works & Why?
Why “co-creation”?
“When participants bring something unique into being, they do so with attention, passion, care and creativity— less administration and management, more ‘parenting’" —Van Alstyne, 2013, Co-creating Foresight in Government
(cc) http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Baby_on_Back.jpg
Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.caPolicy Foresight: What Works & Why?
Participation
Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.ca
Design G. Van Alstyne S. Davies P. Robinson
Why “participation”?
Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.ca
“…ordinary citizens… are neither allowed to participate in defining the goals of a society, nor are their visions of desirable societies taken seriously by the ruling elite, except as part of electoral calculations…. Futures studies seek to subvert such status quo …[&] keep options open”—Nandy, 1996, Bearing Witness to the Future
Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.caPolicy Foresight: What Works & Why?
Strangemaking
Futures of [Open] Democracy Profs. Candy & Van Alstyne“Time Machine”: C. Connolly, L. Dempsey, R. Memmel, A. Satterthwaite, J. Sharrock
Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.ca
Why “strangemaking”?
Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.ca
“Is there a danger of bringing too much imagination to these problems? Do we risk losing ourselves in a maze of bizarre improbabilities? …It has usually been the lack of imagination, rather than the excess of it, that has caused unfortunate decisions and missed opportunities.”
—Kahn, Paradigm for the 1965–1975 Strategic Debate, 3
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Peter H. Jones @redesign SFI, OCAD University, Toronto Karl Schroeder @karlschroeder Futurist, advisor, author, Toronto Ursula Gobel @ulacan1 AVP Future Challenges, SSHRC, Ottawa Greg Van Alstyne @gregvan sLab, OCAD University, Toronto
Modes of Foresight in informing public policy and decision-making
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