Modeling Future Whitebark Pine Competition with other Species
Nathan PiekielekWhitebark pine project planning
session
Objective• Create future spatially-explicit species distribution
models for GYE:– Douglas fir– Lodgepole pine– Others?
• Incorporate competition into future models
• Compare to simulation modeling results
Douglas Fir Results
778 Presence
Models: BRT, MARS, RF
Predictors: tmin4, pptannave,permave
AUC: 0.83 – 0.87Crossval: 0.815 – 0.83
% Correct Classified: 75 – 78.3%Crossval: 73.6 – 76.2%
Lodgepole Pine Results
1071 Presence
Models: BRT, GLM, MARS, RF
Predictors: gdd5, deft10, pptannave, sandfract, siltfractpermave, phave
AUC: 0.75 – 0.89Crossval: 0.75 – 0.83
% Correct Classified: 69.3 – 80.6%Crossval: 69.5 – 75.6%
Prob
abili
ty o
f Pre
senc
e
0.82
0.16
PRESENTRCP 8.5
2070 - 2100
Draft Future Results – Douglas Fir
Geographic Properties of Areas of Suitable Climate (RCP 8.5)
Prob. Presence > 50% Current 2040 2070 2100
Area 41,191 km2 5,237 km2
(87% reduction)
Mean elevation 2,073 m (6,801 ft)
2,337 m(7,667 ft)
Elevation Range 965 – 3,301 m(3,166 – 10,830 ft)
1,317-3,922 m(4,320 – 12,867 ft)
Examining present day competition
N=454 FIA sites
23 sites WBP only
Examining present day competition with
Douglas firN=60 FIA sites
Examining present day competition with Lodgepole pineN=189 FIA sites
Examining present day competition with
Engelmann spruceN=289 FIA sites
Examining present day competition with
Subalpine firN=331 FIA sites
One way future competition options
• Binary:– WBP in presence of some other species always
loses (i.e. model future WBP absence)
• Continuous:– Use probability of presence of competitors to
“adjust down” probability of presence of WBP
• Other?
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