Modeling Future Whitebark Pine Competition with other Species
description
Transcript of Modeling Future Whitebark Pine Competition with other Species
Modeling Future Whitebark Pine Competition with other Species
Nathan PiekielekWhitebark pine project planning
session
Objective• Create future spatially-explicit species distribution
models for GYE:– Douglas fir– Lodgepole pine– Others?
• Incorporate competition into future models
• Compare to simulation modeling results
Douglas Fir Results
778 Presence
Models: BRT, MARS, RF
Predictors: tmin4, pptannave,permave
AUC: 0.83 – 0.87Crossval: 0.815 – 0.83
% Correct Classified: 75 – 78.3%Crossval: 73.6 – 76.2%
Lodgepole Pine Results
1071 Presence
Models: BRT, GLM, MARS, RF
Predictors: gdd5, deft10, pptannave, sandfract, siltfractpermave, phave
AUC: 0.75 – 0.89Crossval: 0.75 – 0.83
% Correct Classified: 69.3 – 80.6%Crossval: 69.5 – 75.6%
Prob
abili
ty o
f Pre
senc
e
0.82
0.16
PRESENTRCP 8.5
2070 - 2100
Draft Future Results – Douglas Fir
Geographic Properties of Areas of Suitable Climate (RCP 8.5)
Prob. Presence > 50% Current 2040 2070 2100
Area 41,191 km2 5,237 km2
(87% reduction)
Mean elevation 2,073 m (6,801 ft)
2,337 m(7,667 ft)
Elevation Range 965 – 3,301 m(3,166 – 10,830 ft)
1,317-3,922 m(4,320 – 12,867 ft)
Examining present day competition
N=454 FIA sites
23 sites WBP only
Examining present day competition with
Douglas firN=60 FIA sites
Examining present day competition with Lodgepole pineN=189 FIA sites
Examining present day competition with
Engelmann spruceN=289 FIA sites
Examining present day competition with
Subalpine firN=331 FIA sites
One way future competition options
• Binary:– WBP in presence of some other species always
loses (i.e. model future WBP absence)
• Continuous:– Use probability of presence of competitors to
“adjust down” probability of presence of WBP
• Other?