Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security

Dimitris KeridisAssociate Professor of International PoliticsPanteion University

From the Arab Springto the Spring of Jihad?

The Problem

After Mosul: the collapse of Syria and Iraq

ISIS and the emergence of a Sunni Caliphate

The Problem

The Framework

External forces: The US intervention in Iraq in 2003

Regional forces: The democratic awakening of the Arab peopleThe Shia-Sunni DivideThe Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry+Turkey, +Russia, +USA

The Framework

Internal forces:

Nouri al-Maliki Bashar Assad The Kurds

Other Factors

Obama’s aloofness after withdrawing from Iraq in 2011

The regional/international constellation

Consequences and prospects

Collapse, re-drawing of borders, protracted civil war

Consequences and prospects

A basis for global jihad

Consequences and prospects

Mass migration

Consequences and prospects

Rapprochement between Iran and the US

Consequences and prospects

The US political polarization: the neo-cons and the rest