Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security
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Transcript of Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security
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Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Security
Dimitris KeridisAssociate Professor of International PoliticsPanteion University
From the Arab Springto the Spring of Jihad?
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The Problem
After Mosul: the collapse of Syria and Iraq
ISIS and the emergence of a Sunni Caliphate
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The Problem
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The Framework
External forces: The US intervention in Iraq in 2003
Regional forces: The democratic awakening of the Arab peopleThe Shia-Sunni DivideThe Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry+Turkey, +Russia, +USA
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The Framework
Internal forces:
Nouri al-Maliki Bashar Assad The Kurds
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Other Factors
Obama’s aloofness after withdrawing from Iraq in 2011
The regional/international constellation
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Consequences and prospects
Collapse, re-drawing of borders, protracted civil war
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Consequences and prospects
A basis for global jihad
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Consequences and prospects
Mass migration
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Consequences and prospects
Rapprochement between Iran and the US
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Consequences and prospects
The US political polarization: the neo-cons and the rest