3
CONSERVATIVE UKIP GOVERNMENT
+4.5%swing from April 2015
+3.5%swing from April 2015
+4.0%swing from April 2015
+7 Net -18 Net -3 NetSATISFIED 49% SATISFIED 29% SATISFIED 43%
DISSATISFIED 42% DISSATISFIED 47% DISSATISFIED 46%
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th June 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOBAS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF UKIP?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
-100
+100
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
4
Satisfaction with Party leaders Feb ‘08 – June ‘15HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS
DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF UKIP?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Fe
b 0
8
Jun
08
Oct
08
Fe
b 0
9
Jun
09
Oct
09
Fe
b 1
0
Jun
10
Oct
10
Fe
b 1
1
Jun
11
Oct
11
Fe
b 1
2
Jun
12
Oct
12
Fe
b 1
3
Jun
13
Oct
13
Fe
b 1
4
Jun
14
Oct
14
Fe
b 1
5
Jun
150%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
49%
29%
CAMERON FARAGE
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
5
Net satisfaction with Prime MinistersHOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th June 2015
6
David Cameron (satisfaction)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
49%
42%
8%
June 2015 May 2006 – June 2015
Ma
y-0
6S
ep
-06
Ap
r-0
7A
ug
-07
Jan
-08
Ma
y-0
8S
ep
-08
Jan
-09
Ma
y-0
9S
ep
-09
Jan
-10
Ma
y-1
0O
ct-1
0F
eb
-11
Jun
-11
Oct
-11
Fe
b-1
2Ju
n-1
2O
ct-1
2F
eb
-13
Jun
-13
Oct
-13
Fe
b-1
4Ju
n-1
4O
ct-1
4F
eb
-15
Jun
-150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 49%
DISSATISFIED 42%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = +7
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Base: 329 Conservative supporters 18+, 14th -16th June 2015
7
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
90%
6%4%
June 2015 May 2006 – June 2015
Ma
y 0
6O
ct 0
6M
ay
07
Se
p 0
7F
eb
08
Jun
08
Oct
-08
Fe
b-0
9Ju
n-0
9O
ct-0
9F
eb
-10
Jun
-10
Jan
-11
Ma
y-1
1S
ep
-11
Jan
-12
Ma
y-1
2S
ep
-12
Jan
-13
Ma
y-1
3S
ep
-13
Jan
-14
Ma
y-1
4S
ep
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 90%
DISSATISFIED 6%
DON’T KNOW 4%
Net = +84
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th June 2015
8
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
50
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
29%
47%
25%
June 2015 March 2013 – June 2015
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 29%
DISSATISFIED 47%
DON’T KNOW 25%
Net = -18
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
9
Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 61 UKIP supporters, 14th -16th June 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
83%
12%5%
June 2015 March 2013 – June 2015
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SATISFIED 83%
DISSATISFIED 12%
DON’T KNOW 5%
Net = +71
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th June 2015
11
Economic Optimism IndexDO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
June 2015
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Fe
b-0
6S
ep
-06
Ma
y-0
7D
ec-
07
Jun
-08
De
c-0
8Ju
n-0
9D
ec-
09
Jun
-10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
7Ja
n-1
2Ju
l-1
2Ja
n-1
3Ju
l-1
3Ja
n-1
4Ju
l-1
4Ja
n-1
50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
IMPROVE 42%
STAY THE SAME 28%
GET WORSE 26%
DON’T KNOW 4%
EOI = +16
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
12
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism IndexDO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Ma
y 1
99
7
De
c 1
99
7
Jul 1
99
8
Fe
b 1
99
9
Se
p 1
99
9
Ap
r 2
00
0
No
v 2
00
0
Jun
20
01
Jan
20
02
Au
g 2
00
2
Ma
r 2
00
3
Oct
20
03
Ma
y 2
00
4
De
c 2
00
4
Jul 2
00
5
Fe
b 2
00
6
Se
p 2
00
6
Ap
r 2
00
7
No
v 2
00
7
Jun
20
08
Jan
20
09
Au
g 2
00
9
Ma
r 2
01
0
Oct
20
10
Ma
y 2
01
1
De
c 2
01
1
Jul 2
01
2
Fe
b 2
01
3
Se
p 2
01
3
Ap
r 2
01
4
No
v 2
01
4
Jun
20
15
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
11
-19-21-27-37-46
-31-30-23-15-6-8-1-43
-12
5
-7
412
-10-5-13-11-14-16-17-13
-6-6-9-2
-29-22
-4
-15
-31
-56
-43
-29-20-21-21
-5
-22-17-27-23-23
-32-40-46-50
-39
-18-24-20-22-26-23-25-27
-20-21-18-22-18-25-22-16
-27-22-26-23-22-19
-11-15-11-20-14-18-25-35-32-27-23
-28-26-29-32-25-33-31
-23-33-27-29-31
-20-20-21-25-33-37
-46-51-47
-60-57-60-57-64-59-58
-35
-51-48-40-40
-29
-2-2
11
-6
16162123
-4
20
671510
-53
-20-21-20-12
-29-37-28
-11-13-23-26-33-32-41-43-48
-35
-22-14-18-23-32-32-27
-9-14-6
-27-22-22-30
-19
-105
202315151819
2523253429253224
1219
51211212616+16
14
Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?
Base: 501 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015
IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2014 June 2015
36%
56%
8%
27%
61%
12%
STAY IN GET OUT DON’T KNOW
15
Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?Trend since 1977IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
Jun
-77
Jun
-79
Jun
-81
Jun
-83
Jun
-85
Jun
-87
Jun
-89
Jun
-91
Jun
-93
Jun
-95
Jun
-97
Jun
-99
Jun
-01
Jun
-03
Jun
-05
Jun
-07
Jun
-09
Jun
-11
Jun
-13
Jun
-15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
26%
60% 63%
52%49%
53%51%
41%
61%65%
29% 27%36% 35% 32%
39%
49%
27%
Base: 501 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
STAY IN GET OUT
16
EU Referendum question:Should the UK remain an EU member?SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Base: 504 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
June 2015
YES NO DON’T KNOW
22%
66%
12%
17
Britain’s future role in EuropeWHICH OF THE OPTIONS BEST DESCRIBES YOUR OWN PREFERENCE FOR BRITAIN'S FUTURE ROLE IN EUROPE?
Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Series1 13%17%
20%23%
19%
33%34%
30%28%28%
31%29%
32%29%
24%
14%14%
13%13%
24%
Britain leaving the European Union altogether
Britain’s relationship with Europe remaining broadly the same as at present
Britain returning to being part on economic community, without political links
Britain and other member states of the European Union moving towards closer political and economic integration
Apr ‘96
Nov ‘12
May ‘14
Oct ‘14
Jun ‘15
Apr ‘96
Nov ‘12
May ‘14
Oct ‘14
Jun ‘15
Apr ‘96
Nov ‘12
May ‘14
Oct ‘14
Jun ‘15
Apr ‘96
Nov ‘12
May ‘14
Oct ‘14
Jun ‘15
18
6%
32%
37%
20%
4%
Confidence in Cameron’s ability to get a good EU deal for BritainPLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?
VERY CONFIDENT
FAIRLY CONFIDENT
NOT VERY CONFIDENT
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT
NO OPINION
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015
November 2014 June 2015
4%
22%
40%
29%
5%
19
Should all cabinet ministers have to keep to the government’s position on the EU referendum?AND STILL THINKING ABOUT A REFERENDUM ON BRITISH MEMBERSHOP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, DO YOU THINK THAT ALL CABINET MINISTERS SHOULD BE REQUIRED TO SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL
GOVERNMENT POSITION ON BRITISH MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, OR SHOULD THEY BE ALLOWED TO CAMPAIGN FOR THE POSITION THEY BELIEVE MOST, EVEN IT IT’S DIFFERENT TO THE GOVERNMENT’S POLICY?
June 2015
THEY SHOULD BE REQUIRED TO SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT POSITION
THEY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO CAMPAIGN FOR THE POSITION THEY BELIEVE MOST DON’T KNOW
74%
19%
7%
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015
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