Ref: 19927-195
Impact on Education and Healthcare Sector Revenue
from a 10% Increase in Broadband Penetration in India
Presentation for GSMA
20 May 2011
2
19927-195
Contents
Approach and Results Summary
Overview of Education Sector and Impact of Broadband
Overview of Healthcare Sector and Impact of Broadband
3
19927-195
Global database for broadband penetration
and sector contribution to GDP
Regression analysis of selected
developing countries to estimate sector spend by penetration levels
Regression analysis using sector spend
per capita ($ PPP) for developing countries
Markets where BB penetration increased by
at least 10% over the last 10 years
Base case projections according
to current / historical growth trends (bottom-up analysis)
Benchmarking analysis of countries
with sector contribution to GDP and BB penetration similar to India
1 2 3
Regression equation to calculate
average spend at each level of broadband penetration
Application of average CAGR of per
capita sector revenues (real terms) and inflation to India scenario
Estimation of real CAGR (for period
when BB penetration increased by 10%) of per capita sector revenue by removing
inflation & exchange rate fluctuations
Growth in Education and Healthcare sector revenue with 10% increase in broadband penetration in India
Estimation of growth in number of units
(students or hospitals) over the next 5 years
Estimation of growth in average revenue
per unit over the next 5 years
We used three approaches to estimate growth in education and
healthcare sector revenue for a 10% increase in BB penetration
Source: Analysys Mason
Overall Approach
4
19927-195
A 10% increase in broadband penetration is expected to result in
a 37% growth in education sector revenues…
Source: Analysys Mason, TRAI
Impact of 10% Increase in Broadband Penetration
on Education Sector Revenue in India1
Tota
l E
ducation S
ecto
r R
eve
nue
3 (IN
R b
n)
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sector Revenue with 10% increase in Broadband
Sector Revenue based on Base Case Analysis
Note: 1. Based on Approach 2: Benchmarking analysis of similar countries; 2. Net growth due to various factors including increase in broadband penetration; 3. Sector revenue have been estimated in INR to avoid exchange rate fluctuations
Summary: Education Sector
Growth rate
124.3%
87.5%
Net Growth2 in Education Sector Revenue: 36.8%
BB
Penetration 0.9% 1.7% 3.5% 6.2% 9.5% 12.5%
Approach 1: Regression analysis of selected
developing countries (on PPP basis)
Growth in education sector revenue 95.6%
Approach 2: Benchmarking analysis of countries
similar to India in terms of sector contribution to GDP
and broadband penetration (using per capita data)
Growth in education sector revenue 124.3%
Approach 3: Base case projections according
to current / historical growth trends
Growth in education sector revenue 87.5%
5
19927-195
… and 42% growth in healthcare sector revenues in India
Source: Analysys Mason, TRAI
Impact of 10% Increase in Broadband Penetration
on Healthcare Sector Revenue in India1
Approach 1: Regression analysis of selected
developing countries (on PPP basis)
Growth in healthcare sector revenue 131.3%
Approach 2: Benchmarking analysis of countries
similar to India in terms of sector contribution to GDP
and broadband penetration (using per capita data)
Growth in healthcare sector revenue 118.4%
Approach 3: Base case projections according
to current / historical growth trends
Growth in healthcare sector revenue 76.4%
Summary: Healthcare Sector
Tota
l H
ealthcare
Secto
r R
eve
nue
3
(IN
R b
n)
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sector Revenue with 10% increase in Broadband
Sector Revenue based on Base Case Analysis
Net Growth2 in Healthcare Sector Revenue: 42%
BB
Penetration 0.9% 1.7% 3.5% 6.2% 9.5% 12.5%
Note: 1. Based on Approach 2: Benchmarking analysis of similar countries; 2. Net growth due to various factors including increase in broadband penetration; 3. Sector revenue have been estimated in INR to avoid exchange rate fluctuations
118.4%
76.4%
Growth rate
6
19927-195
Contents
Approach and Results Summary
Overview of Education Sector and Impact of Broadband
Overview of Healthcare Sector and Impact of Broadband
7
19927-195
Education spend in India has increased from INR 1,147 bn in 2000
to INR 3,810 bn in 2010, and currently contributes to ~5% of GDP
1,147 1,201 1,287 1,340 1,469
1,652 1,854
2,083
2,617
3,210
3,810
5.5% 5.3% 5.2%
4.9%
4.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.2%
4.7%
5.2% 5.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
0
1,800
3,600
5,400
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Education Sector Revenue Contribution to GDP
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor, MHRD, Industry Inputs
• Number of students enrolled in schools /
colleges increased from ~99 mn in 2000 to ~190 mn in 2010
~40% of population between 5-24 years age is
enrolled in 2010, as compared to ~23% in 2000
The government of India aims to increase the
GER in higher education to 20% by 2017 from
current 14%
Spend per student admitted has also increased
from INR 11.6 K in 2000 to INR 20.2 K in 2010
• This growth is primarily driven by public investment in building schools and providing
subsidized education through initiatives such as Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA)
• There has also been an increase in the
number of private schools and colleges, online and correspondence courses and partnerships
with corporate institutes
Education Sector Overview: India
Note: 1. Includes both public and private sector revenue. Private sector revenue covers educational services only. It does not include expenditure on educational materials, such as books and stationery or education support services, such as transport services, catering services and accommodation services etc. It includes education by radio or television broadcasting
Education Sector Revenue1 (INR bn) and
Contribution to GDP in India (%)
Tota
l E
ducation S
ecto
r R
eve
nue in
India
(IN
R b
n)
Contrib
utio
n to
GD
P (%
)
8
19927-195
In majority of global markets where BB penetration has increased
by 10%, the sector contribution to GDP is between 4% and 8%
• Globally, 41 markets
have witnessed at least 10% increase in their broadband
penetration between 1999 and 2010
• In developing countries, current
education spend per capita varies between USD 250 and USD
1000, while in developed countries,
it varies between USD 1,800 and USD 4,000
Education Sector Overview: International Markets
Education Sector Contribution1 to GDP in International Markets (2010)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Isra
el
Latv
ia
Unite
d S
tate
s
Denm
ark
Irel
and
Icela
nd
Canada
Unite
d K
ingdom
Chile
Sw
eden
Aust
ralia
Slo
venia
Pola
nd
Mexi
co
Rom
ania
Arg
ent
ina
Fin
land
Cro
atia
Fra
nce
Belg
ium
Norw
ay
Sw
itzerland
Aust
ria
Neth
erla
nds
Hungar
y
Spain
Japan
Port
uga
l
Gre
ece
Italy
India
Hong K
ong
Bulg
aria
New
Zeala
nd
Cze
ch R
epublic
Germ
any
Russ
ia
Sin
gapore
Bahra
in
Slo
vaki
a
Uru
guay
Unite
d A
rab E
mirate
s
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor
Education S
ecto
r C
ontr
ibution to
GD
P (
%)
Note: 1. Includes both public and private sector revenue
9
19927-195
Regression analysis suggests a 96% growth in education sector
revenue for a 10% increase in broadband penetration
• Out of the 41 countries which had experienced
an increase of 10% broadband penetration over the last 10 years, the education spend per capita of developing countries (19) was
analysed
• A regression analysis was performed on the
data from 12 developing countries (after removing 7 outliers1) to obtain a regression equation to calculate average spend ($ in
PPP) at each level of broadband penetration
• Based on regression analysis, it was observed
that India’s education sector could grow from INR 3,810 bn currently to INR 7,454 bn for a 10% increase in broadband penetration
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor
• Education Sector Revenue Growth: 95.6%
Impact on Education Sector: Regression Analysis
Approach for Regression Analysis of Education
Sector Growth in Selected Developing Countries
Regression equation y = 2,806x + 599
Regression Analysis 1
Note: 1. Outliers includes countries with an already high or low spend on education (by PPP)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%
Ed
uca
tio
n S
pen
d p
er
Ca
pita
($
PP
P)
Broadband penetration (%)
Observed Education Spend per Capita
Predicted Education Spend per Capita
10
19927-195
There are five developing countries which had similar BB
penetration (1%) & sector contribution (5%) parameters as India
• Selected developing
countries are further filtered
to identify countries which
had revenue contribution of
education sector to GDP at
~5% when their broadband
penetration was ~1%
• These countries represent
the impact of broadband on
the education sector at
different stages of
development of broadband
(in terms of technology and
bandwidth availability) and
ICT enabled learning
market
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor
Note: 1. Each country had ~0.9% broadband penetration at different point of time; 2. Duration for a 10% increase in broadband penetrat ion varies for each country
Contribution of Education Sector to GDP at ~1% Broadband
Penetration1 for Selected Developing Countries
Impact on Education Sector: Benchmarking Analysis
Developing countries which have witnessed at least 10% growth in broadband
penetration over 2000-20102
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Isra
el
La
tvia
Port
uga
l
Chile
Pola
nd
Hung
ary
Me
xico
Slo
ven
ia
Cro
atia
Bah
rain
Ind
ia
Cze
ch
Rom
ania
Bulg
aria
Arg
en
tina
Russi
a
Slo
vakia
Uru
gua
y
UA
E
Education S
ecto
r C
ontr
ibution to
GD
P (
%)
Benchmarking Analysis 2
11
19927-195
These countries have witnessed 3% - 19% real CAGR in
education spend with a 10% increase in BB penetration
• Improvement in quality of education through
faculty training and curriculum development
• Increased focus on higher education in terms
of opening of new colleges, universities and improvements in the upper-secondary vocational programs
• Government initiatives such as
decentralization of control as well as introduction of subsidies for private schools
• Emergence of technological upgrades to connect institutions through ICT for better
monitoring and management
• Growth in distance learning and online
universities
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor
CAGR1 of Education Sector Revenue per Capita with
10% increase in Broadband Penetration Education Sector Growth Drivers
• Average nominal CAGR: 16.8%
• Average real growth (after adjustment for inflation and currency exchange rate): 10.5%
Benchmarking Analysis 2
Impact on Education Sector: Benchmarking Analysis
2.7%
4.0%
16.1%
19.4%
CzechRepublic
Bulgaria
Argentina
Romania
Note: 1. CAGR for period when broadband penetration in that country increased by 10%. Includes growth rate of per capita spen d after adjusting for inflation and exchange rate fluctuations. Bahrain is not considered for the analysis due to disproportionate increase in population
CAGR in real education revenue per capita after adjusting for fluctuations in inflation and currency exchange rate
12
19927-195
Based on the analysis of these countries, India’s education
sector can realize 124% growth in education sector revenues
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor, TRAI, Industry Inputs
• Increase in education sector revenue with
increase in broadband penetration will primarily be driven by growth in distance learning and e-learning market
• Number of students enrolled in distance higher education is growing at 35% currently, and is
continue to grow with increased broadband penetration tier 3 and 4 towns
• This growth will be supported by initiatives by
government and private sector for driving adoption of technology enabled learning
Government has been making significant
investments in building National Knowledge
Network to enable effective delivery of distance
education and support advanced research
Similarly, private institutions are adopting ICT to
offer online courses and enable multimedia
based teaching
Growth in Education Sector Revenue (INR bn) with
10% Increase in Broadband Penetration in India
Tota
l S
ecto
r R
eve
nue
(IN
R b
n)
Bro
adband P
enetra
tion (%
)
Growth Rate Calculation (2010 – 2015)
• Real CAGR of per Capita Spend: 10.5%
• Average inflation from 2010 - 2015: 6.2%
Contribution to GDP (2015):
5.8%
3,810
4,480
5,267
6,190
7,274
8,545
0.9%
1.7%
3.5%
6.2%
9.5%
12.5%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Education Sector Revenue Broadband Penetration
Benchmarking Analysis 2
Impact on Education Sector: Benchmarking Analysis
Growth: 124.3%
13
19927-195
Based on current growth trend, education sector revenue in India
is expected to grow to INR 7,145 bn in 2015
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor, UN Data
3,810
4,398
5,049
5,698
6,381
7,145
39.9% 42.9%
46.2% 49.8%
53.7%
58.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Education Sector Revenue
Students Enrolled as % of Addressable Population
Education Sector Revenue (INR bn) and Student
Enrolled as % of Addressable Population1 (%)
Tota
l E
ducation S
ecto
r R
eve
nue in
India
(IN
R b
n)
Stu
dents
Enro
lled a
s %
of A
ddre
ssable
Popula
tion (%
)
Base Case Analysis 3
• Number of students enrolled have increased at
a CAGR of 8% over the last 10 years to reach
188.9mn in 2010
• Student enrolment is assumed to grow at the
same CAGR of 8% from 2010 to 2015
Share of addressable population (between 5
years and 24 years) enrolled in schools and
colleges is expected to grow from ~40% in 2010
to ~58% in 2015
• Revenue per student enrolled is expected to
vary with inflation from 2010 to 2015
Note: 1. Population between age 5 and 24 years
Impact on Education Sector: Base Case Analysis
Growth: 87.5%
14
19927-195
Impact of growth drivers of sector revenue expected to increase
with higher increase in broadband penetration in 5 years
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Growth1: 27.5%
Net Growth1: 36.8%
Net Growth1: 46.7%
Tota
l S
ecto
r R
eve
nue
2
(IN
R b
n)
Note: 1. Net growth due to various factors including increase in broadband penetration; 2. Sector revenue have been estimated in INR to avoid exchange rate fluctuations
Source: Analysys Mason
Growth drivers of education sector revenue, including broadband penetration, are expected to have an
increasing impact on revenue with higher broadband penetration in 5 years
Education Sector: Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sector Revenue with increase in Broadband Sector Revenue based on Base Case Analysis
Scenario 1: Broadband
Penetration in 2015: 11.5%
Scenario 3: Broadband
Penetration after 5 Years: 13.5%
Scenario 2: Broadband
Penetration in 2015: 12.5%
15
19927-195
Contents
Approach and Results Summary
Overview of Education Sector and Impact of Broadband
Overview of Healthcare Sector and Impact of Broadband
16
19927-195
Healthcare spend in India has increased from INR 929 bn in 2000
to INR 2,892 bn in 2010 and currently contributes ~3.8% of GDP
929 1,092 1,143 1,210
1,324 1,501
1,688
1,918
2,186
2,724 2,892
4.3%
4.7% 4.6%
4.3%
4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9%
4.3%
3.8%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Healthcare sector revenue Contribution to GDP
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Industry Inputs
• Healthcare spend per capita has increased at
a CAGR of 10.4% over 2000 and 2010 to grow
from INR 898 to INR 2,408
• As of Sept, 2010, government had established
146,036 health sub-centres, 23,458 primary
health centers and 4,276 Community health
centers in the country
• However, private spending dominates the total
healthcare sector revenue in India,
contributing ~75% of total healthcare sector
revenue
• Private spending accounts for over 75% of the
human resources and advanced medical
technology and 68% of all hospitals (15,097)
• Further, healthcare facilities are limited to top
few cities with 80% of doctors catering to top
20% of population
Healthcare Sector Overview: India
Healthcare Sector Revenue1 (INR bn) and
Contribution to GDP in India (%)
Tota
l H
ealthcare
Secto
r R
eve
nue
in India
(IN
R b
n)
Contrib
utio
n to
GD
P (%
)
Note: 1. Includes both public and private sector revenue
17
19927-195
This is much lower than the contribution of healthcare sector to
overall GDP for a majority of other international markets in 2010
• Developed countries
are characterised by relatively higher spends as % of GDP
and per capita on healthcare
• For developing countries, current
healthcare spend per capita varies between USD 500 and USD
2000, while for developed countries,
it varies between USD 4,000 and USD 6,000
Healthcare Sector Overview: International Markets
Healthcare Sector Contribution1 to GDP in International Markets (2010)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Icela
nd
Unite
d S
tate
s
Fra
nce
Gre
ece
Irel
and
Aust
ria
Belg
ium
Germ
any
Denm
ark
Uru
guay
Port
uga
l
Neth
erla
nds
Spain
Italy
Latv
ia
Slo
vaki
a
Fin
land
Sw
itzerland
Unite
d K
ingdom
Canada
Slo
venia
Cro
atia
Sw
eden
Norw
ay
Arg
ent
ina
Pola
nd
Hungar
y
Bulg
aria
Isra
el
Cze
ch R
epublic
Aust
ralia
New
Zeala
nd
Japan
Russ
ia
Rom
ania
Mexi
co
Chile
Bahra
in
India
Sin
gapore
Unite
d A
rab E
mirate
s
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor
Healthcare
Secto
r C
ontr
ibution t
o G
DP
(%
)
Note: 1. Includes both public and private sector revenue
18
19927-195
Based on the regression analysis, 10% increase in broadband
penetration can lead to a 131% growth in healthcare sector
• Out of the 41 countries which had experienced
an increase of 10% broadband penetration over the last 10 years, the healthcare spend per capita for 19 developing countries was
analysed
• A regression analysis was performed on the
data from 12 developing countries (after removing 7 outliers1) to obtain a regression equation to calculate average spend ($ in
PPP) at each level of broadband penetration
• Based on regression analysis, it was observed
that India’s healthcare sector could grow from INR 2,892 bn currently to INR 6,689 bn over a 10% increase in broadband penetration
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor
• Healthcare Sector Revenue Growth: 131.3%
Impact on Healthcare Sector: Regression Analysis
Approach for Regression Analysis of Healthcare
Sector Growth in Selected Developing Countries
Regression equation y = 5,427x + 741
Regression Analysis 1
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Healthcare
Spend p
er
Capita (
$P
PP
)
Broadband penetration (%)
Observed Healthcare Spend per Capita
Predicted Healthcare Spend Per Capita
Note: 1. Outliers includes countries with an already high or low spend on healthcare (by PPP)
19
19927-195
There are six developing countries which had a contribution of
healthcare to GDP ~4%, when broadband penetration was ~1%
• Among developing
countries, there are six
such countries which, when
at a broadband penetration
of 0.9%, had observed a
c.4% contribution to GDP
by their healthcare sector
• Time taken by these
countries to witness a
c.10% increase in
broadband penetration
varies between 4 to 7 years
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor
Developing countries which have witnessed at least 10% growth in broadband
penetration over 2000-20102
Note: 1. Each country had ~0.9% broadband penetration at different points of time; 2. Duration for 10% increase in broadband penetration could vary for each country
Contribution of Healthcare Sector to GDP at ~1% Broadband
Penetration1 for Selected Developing Countries
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Slo
venia
Uru
guay
Port
uga
l
Isra
el
Arg
ent
ina
Hungar
y
Cze
ch
Bulg
aria
Chile
Cro
atia
Pola
nd
Latv
ia
Mexi
co
Slo
vaki
a
Russ
ia
Rom
ania
Bahra
in
India
UA
EHealthcare
Secto
r C
ontr
ibution t
o G
DP
(%
)
Benchmarking Analysis 2
Impact on Healthcare Sector: Benchmarking Analysis
20
19927-195
These countries have witnessed 5% - 17% real CAGR in
healthcare spend with a 10% increase in BB penetration
• Increase in private investments and industry
consolidation for medical infra, resulting in the establishment of specialty hospitals
• Increasing affluence, rising prevalence of lifestyle diseases, as well as increasing incidence of epidemic outbreaks have
increased out of pocket spend on healthcare
• Rapid medical inflation, especially in the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, organ transplants and specialist services also
contributes to the increase in expenditure
• Governments policy initiatives aim to establish small-scale primary healthcare clinics, national health databases and staff training programs
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor
Healthcare Sector Growth Drivers
• Average nominal growth: 15.5%
• Average real growth (after adjustment for inflation and currency exchange rate): 10%
Benchmarking Analysis 2
Impact on Healthcare Sector: Benchmarking Analysis
Real CAGR1 of Healthcare Sector Revenue per Capita
with 10% increase in Broadband Penetration
4.5%
4.7%
7.8%
10.9%
14.9%
17.0%
UAE
Mexico
Bahrain
Romania
Russia
Slovakia
Note: 1. CAGR for period when broadband penetration in that country increased by 10%. Includes growth rate of per capita spen d after adjusting for inflation and exchange rate fluctuations
CAGR in real healthcare revenue per capita after adjusting for fluctuations in inflation and currency exchange rate
21
19927-195
Based on the growth rate analysis of these countries, India is
expected to witness 118% growth in healthcare sector revenues
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor, Industry Inputs
• Increase in healthcare sector revenue with
increase in Broadband penetration will primarily be driven by growth in telemedicine clinics, mobile health monitoring and survey
data collection
• Further, this growth will be supported by
initiatives by government as well as private players
Policy changes such as allowing FDI for medical
equipment, de-regulation of health insurance and
budgetary considerations for pharmaceutical and
biotech organizations drive growth in this sector
• However, in addition to broadband availability,
reliability of broadband access (uptime of 99%) and reduction in service costs will be required to drive growth of telemedicine
• As per XIth five year plan (2007-12), govt. plans to increase its spend on health sector to
2-3% in 2012
Growth in Healthcare Sector Revenue (INR bn) with
10% Increase in Broadband Penetration in India
2,892
3,377
3,946
4,615
5,398
6,317
0.9%
1.7%
3.5%
6.2%
9.5%
12.5%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Education Sector Revenue Broadband Penetration
Tota
l H
ealthcare
Secto
r R
eve
nue
(IN
R b
n)
Bro
adband P
enetra
tion (%
)
Growth Rate Calculation (2010 – 2015)
• Real CAGR of per Capita Spend: 10.0%
• Average inflation from 2010 - 2015: 6.2%
Contribution to GDP (2015): 4.3%
Benchmarking Analysis 2
Impact on Healthcare Sector: Benchmarking Analysis
Growth: 118.4%
22
19927-195
Based on historical growth trends, healthcare sector revenue in
India is expected to grow by 76% to reach INR 5,102 bn by 2015
Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare
2,892
3,240
3,629
4,066
4,555
5,102
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Healthcare Sector Revenue (INR bn) based on
Historical Growth
Tota
l H
ealthcare
Secto
r R
eve
nue
in India
(IN
R b
n)
• As per base case analysis, the healthcare
sector in India is expected to grow by 76.4%
over 2010-2015 to reach INR 5,102 bn
• According to Ministry of Health and Family
Welfare, there were 1,78,601 public health
institutions (govt. hospitals, HSC, PHC and
CHC) and 10,266 private hospitals in India in
2010
• Revenue per health institution is assumed to
vary with inflation from 2010 to 2015
• By 2015, the number of number of govt. health
institutions are expected to increase to
195,000 while private hospitals are expected
to increase to 15,000 resulting in an increase
of 76.4% in sector revenues
Base Case Analysis 3
Impact on Healthcare Sector: Base Case Analysis
Growth: 76.4%
23
19927-195
Impact of growth drivers of sector revenue expected to increase
with higher increase in broadband penetration in 5 years
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Growth1: 33.2%
Net Growth1: 42.0%
Net Growth1: 51.4%
Tota
l S
ecto
r R
eve
nue
2
(IN
R b
n)
Note: 1. Net growth due to various factors including increase in broadband penetration; 2. Sector revenue have been estimated in INR to avoid exchange rate fluctuations
Source: Analysys Mason
Growth drivers of healthcare sector revenue, including broadband penetration, are expected to have an
increasing impact on revenue with higher broadband penetration in 5 years
Healthcare Sector: Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sector Revenue with increase in Broadband Sector Revenue based on Base Case Analysis
Scenario 1: Broadband
Penetration in 2015: 11.5%
Scenario 3: Broadband
Penetration after 5 Years: 13.5%
Scenario 2: Broadband
Penetration in 2015: 12.5%
24
19927-195
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