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Ref: 19927-195 Impact on Education and Healthcare Sector Revenue from a 10% Increase in Broadband Penetration in India Presentation for GSMA 20 May 2011

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Page 1: Impact on Education and Healthcare Sector Revenue from a ... · Growth in Education and Healthcare sector revenue with 10% increase in broadband penetration in India Estimation of

Ref: 19927-195

Impact on Education and Healthcare Sector Revenue

from a 10% Increase in Broadband Penetration in India

Presentation for GSMA

20 May 2011

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Contents

Approach and Results Summary

Overview of Education Sector and Impact of Broadband

Overview of Healthcare Sector and Impact of Broadband

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Global database for broadband penetration

and sector contribution to GDP

Regression analysis of selected

developing countries to estimate sector spend by penetration levels

Regression analysis using sector spend

per capita ($ PPP) for developing countries

Markets where BB penetration increased by

at least 10% over the last 10 years

Base case projections according

to current / historical growth trends (bottom-up analysis)

Benchmarking analysis of countries

with sector contribution to GDP and BB penetration similar to India

1 2 3

Regression equation to calculate

average spend at each level of broadband penetration

Application of average CAGR of per

capita sector revenues (real terms) and inflation to India scenario

Estimation of real CAGR (for period

when BB penetration increased by 10%) of per capita sector revenue by removing

inflation & exchange rate fluctuations

Growth in Education and Healthcare sector revenue with 10% increase in broadband penetration in India

Estimation of growth in number of units

(students or hospitals) over the next 5 years

Estimation of growth in average revenue

per unit over the next 5 years

We used three approaches to estimate growth in education and

healthcare sector revenue for a 10% increase in BB penetration

Source: Analysys Mason

Overall Approach

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A 10% increase in broadband penetration is expected to result in

a 37% growth in education sector revenues…

Source: Analysys Mason, TRAI

Impact of 10% Increase in Broadband Penetration

on Education Sector Revenue in India1

Tota

l E

ducation S

ecto

r R

eve

nue

3 (IN

R b

n)

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sector Revenue with 10% increase in Broadband

Sector Revenue based on Base Case Analysis

Note: 1. Based on Approach 2: Benchmarking analysis of similar countries; 2. Net growth due to various factors including increase in broadband penetration; 3. Sector revenue have been estimated in INR to avoid exchange rate fluctuations

Summary: Education Sector

Growth rate

124.3%

87.5%

Net Growth2 in Education Sector Revenue: 36.8%

BB

Penetration 0.9% 1.7% 3.5% 6.2% 9.5% 12.5%

Approach 1: Regression analysis of selected

developing countries (on PPP basis)

Growth in education sector revenue 95.6%

Approach 2: Benchmarking analysis of countries

similar to India in terms of sector contribution to GDP

and broadband penetration (using per capita data)

Growth in education sector revenue 124.3%

Approach 3: Base case projections according

to current / historical growth trends

Growth in education sector revenue 87.5%

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… and 42% growth in healthcare sector revenues in India

Source: Analysys Mason, TRAI

Impact of 10% Increase in Broadband Penetration

on Healthcare Sector Revenue in India1

Approach 1: Regression analysis of selected

developing countries (on PPP basis)

Growth in healthcare sector revenue 131.3%

Approach 2: Benchmarking analysis of countries

similar to India in terms of sector contribution to GDP

and broadband penetration (using per capita data)

Growth in healthcare sector revenue 118.4%

Approach 3: Base case projections according

to current / historical growth trends

Growth in healthcare sector revenue 76.4%

Summary: Healthcare Sector

Tota

l H

ealthcare

Secto

r R

eve

nue

3

(IN

R b

n)

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sector Revenue with 10% increase in Broadband

Sector Revenue based on Base Case Analysis

Net Growth2 in Healthcare Sector Revenue: 42%

BB

Penetration 0.9% 1.7% 3.5% 6.2% 9.5% 12.5%

Note: 1. Based on Approach 2: Benchmarking analysis of similar countries; 2. Net growth due to various factors including increase in broadband penetration; 3. Sector revenue have been estimated in INR to avoid exchange rate fluctuations

118.4%

76.4%

Growth rate

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Contents

Approach and Results Summary

Overview of Education Sector and Impact of Broadband

Overview of Healthcare Sector and Impact of Broadband

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Education spend in India has increased from INR 1,147 bn in 2000

to INR 3,810 bn in 2010, and currently contributes to ~5% of GDP

1,147 1,201 1,287 1,340 1,469

1,652 1,854

2,083

2,617

3,210

3,810

5.5% 5.3% 5.2%

4.9%

4.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.2%

4.7%

5.2% 5.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

1,800

3,600

5,400

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Education Sector Revenue Contribution to GDP

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor, MHRD, Industry Inputs

• Number of students enrolled in schools /

colleges increased from ~99 mn in 2000 to ~190 mn in 2010

~40% of population between 5-24 years age is

enrolled in 2010, as compared to ~23% in 2000

The government of India aims to increase the

GER in higher education to 20% by 2017 from

current 14%

Spend per student admitted has also increased

from INR 11.6 K in 2000 to INR 20.2 K in 2010

• This growth is primarily driven by public investment in building schools and providing

subsidized education through initiatives such as Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA)

• There has also been an increase in the

number of private schools and colleges, online and correspondence courses and partnerships

with corporate institutes

Education Sector Overview: India

Note: 1. Includes both public and private sector revenue. Private sector revenue covers educational services only. It does not include expenditure on educational materials, such as books and stationery or education support services, such as transport services, catering services and accommodation services etc. It includes education by radio or television broadcasting

Education Sector Revenue1 (INR bn) and

Contribution to GDP in India (%)

Tota

l E

ducation S

ecto

r R

eve

nue in

India

(IN

R b

n)

Contrib

utio

n to

GD

P (%

)

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In majority of global markets where BB penetration has increased

by 10%, the sector contribution to GDP is between 4% and 8%

• Globally, 41 markets

have witnessed at least 10% increase in their broadband

penetration between 1999 and 2010

• In developing countries, current

education spend per capita varies between USD 250 and USD

1000, while in developed countries,

it varies between USD 1,800 and USD 4,000

Education Sector Overview: International Markets

Education Sector Contribution1 to GDP in International Markets (2010)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Isra

el

Latv

ia

Unite

d S

tate

s

Denm

ark

Irel

and

Icela

nd

Canada

Unite

d K

ingdom

Chile

Sw

eden

Aust

ralia

Slo

venia

Pola

nd

Mexi

co

Rom

ania

Arg

ent

ina

Fin

land

Cro

atia

Fra

nce

Belg

ium

Norw

ay

Sw

itzerland

Aust

ria

Neth

erla

nds

Hungar

y

Spain

Japan

Port

uga

l

Gre

ece

Italy

India

Hong K

ong

Bulg

aria

New

Zeala

nd

Cze

ch R

epublic

Germ

any

Russ

ia

Sin

gapore

Bahra

in

Slo

vaki

a

Uru

guay

Unite

d A

rab E

mirate

s

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor

Education S

ecto

r C

ontr

ibution to

GD

P (

%)

Note: 1. Includes both public and private sector revenue

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Regression analysis suggests a 96% growth in education sector

revenue for a 10% increase in broadband penetration

• Out of the 41 countries which had experienced

an increase of 10% broadband penetration over the last 10 years, the education spend per capita of developing countries (19) was

analysed

• A regression analysis was performed on the

data from 12 developing countries (after removing 7 outliers1) to obtain a regression equation to calculate average spend ($ in

PPP) at each level of broadband penetration

• Based on regression analysis, it was observed

that India’s education sector could grow from INR 3,810 bn currently to INR 7,454 bn for a 10% increase in broadband penetration

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor

• Education Sector Revenue Growth: 95.6%

Impact on Education Sector: Regression Analysis

Approach for Regression Analysis of Education

Sector Growth in Selected Developing Countries

Regression equation y = 2,806x + 599

Regression Analysis 1

Note: 1. Outliers includes countries with an already high or low spend on education (by PPP)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

Ed

uca

tio

n S

pen

d p

er

Ca

pita

($

PP

P)

Broadband penetration (%)

Observed Education Spend per Capita

Predicted Education Spend per Capita

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There are five developing countries which had similar BB

penetration (1%) & sector contribution (5%) parameters as India

• Selected developing

countries are further filtered

to identify countries which

had revenue contribution of

education sector to GDP at

~5% when their broadband

penetration was ~1%

• These countries represent

the impact of broadband on

the education sector at

different stages of

development of broadband

(in terms of technology and

bandwidth availability) and

ICT enabled learning

market

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor

Note: 1. Each country had ~0.9% broadband penetration at different point of time; 2. Duration for a 10% increase in broadband penetrat ion varies for each country

Contribution of Education Sector to GDP at ~1% Broadband

Penetration1 for Selected Developing Countries

Impact on Education Sector: Benchmarking Analysis

Developing countries which have witnessed at least 10% growth in broadband

penetration over 2000-20102

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Isra

el

La

tvia

Port

uga

l

Chile

Pola

nd

Hung

ary

Me

xico

Slo

ven

ia

Cro

atia

Bah

rain

Ind

ia

Cze

ch

Rom

ania

Bulg

aria

Arg

en

tina

Russi

a

Slo

vakia

Uru

gua

y

UA

E

Education S

ecto

r C

ontr

ibution to

GD

P (

%)

Benchmarking Analysis 2

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These countries have witnessed 3% - 19% real CAGR in

education spend with a 10% increase in BB penetration

• Improvement in quality of education through

faculty training and curriculum development

• Increased focus on higher education in terms

of opening of new colleges, universities and improvements in the upper-secondary vocational programs

• Government initiatives such as

decentralization of control as well as introduction of subsidies for private schools

• Emergence of technological upgrades to connect institutions through ICT for better

monitoring and management

• Growth in distance learning and online

universities

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor

CAGR1 of Education Sector Revenue per Capita with

10% increase in Broadband Penetration Education Sector Growth Drivers

• Average nominal CAGR: 16.8%

• Average real growth (after adjustment for inflation and currency exchange rate): 10.5%

Benchmarking Analysis 2

Impact on Education Sector: Benchmarking Analysis

2.7%

4.0%

16.1%

19.4%

CzechRepublic

Bulgaria

Argentina

Romania

Note: 1. CAGR for period when broadband penetration in that country increased by 10%. Includes growth rate of per capita spen d after adjusting for inflation and exchange rate fluctuations. Bahrain is not considered for the analysis due to disproportionate increase in population

CAGR in real education revenue per capita after adjusting for fluctuations in inflation and currency exchange rate

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Based on the analysis of these countries, India’s education

sector can realize 124% growth in education sector revenues

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor, TRAI, Industry Inputs

• Increase in education sector revenue with

increase in broadband penetration will primarily be driven by growth in distance learning and e-learning market

• Number of students enrolled in distance higher education is growing at 35% currently, and is

continue to grow with increased broadband penetration tier 3 and 4 towns

• This growth will be supported by initiatives by

government and private sector for driving adoption of technology enabled learning

Government has been making significant

investments in building National Knowledge

Network to enable effective delivery of distance

education and support advanced research

Similarly, private institutions are adopting ICT to

offer online courses and enable multimedia

based teaching

Growth in Education Sector Revenue (INR bn) with

10% Increase in Broadband Penetration in India

Tota

l S

ecto

r R

eve

nue

(IN

R b

n)

Bro

adband P

enetra

tion (%

)

Growth Rate Calculation (2010 – 2015)

• Real CAGR of per Capita Spend: 10.5%

• Average inflation from 2010 - 2015: 6.2%

Contribution to GDP (2015):

5.8%

3,810

4,480

5,267

6,190

7,274

8,545

0.9%

1.7%

3.5%

6.2%

9.5%

12.5%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Education Sector Revenue Broadband Penetration

Benchmarking Analysis 2

Impact on Education Sector: Benchmarking Analysis

Growth: 124.3%

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Based on current growth trend, education sector revenue in India

is expected to grow to INR 7,145 bn in 2015

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor, UN Data

3,810

4,398

5,049

5,698

6,381

7,145

39.9% 42.9%

46.2% 49.8%

53.7%

58.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Education Sector Revenue

Students Enrolled as % of Addressable Population

Education Sector Revenue (INR bn) and Student

Enrolled as % of Addressable Population1 (%)

Tota

l E

ducation S

ecto

r R

eve

nue in

India

(IN

R b

n)

Stu

dents

Enro

lled a

s %

of A

ddre

ssable

Popula

tion (%

)

Base Case Analysis 3

• Number of students enrolled have increased at

a CAGR of 8% over the last 10 years to reach

188.9mn in 2010

• Student enrolment is assumed to grow at the

same CAGR of 8% from 2010 to 2015

Share of addressable population (between 5

years and 24 years) enrolled in schools and

colleges is expected to grow from ~40% in 2010

to ~58% in 2015

• Revenue per student enrolled is expected to

vary with inflation from 2010 to 2015

Note: 1. Population between age 5 and 24 years

Impact on Education Sector: Base Case Analysis

Growth: 87.5%

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Impact of growth drivers of sector revenue expected to increase

with higher increase in broadband penetration in 5 years

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net Growth1: 27.5%

Net Growth1: 36.8%

Net Growth1: 46.7%

Tota

l S

ecto

r R

eve

nue

2

(IN

R b

n)

Note: 1. Net growth due to various factors including increase in broadband penetration; 2. Sector revenue have been estimated in INR to avoid exchange rate fluctuations

Source: Analysys Mason

Growth drivers of education sector revenue, including broadband penetration, are expected to have an

increasing impact on revenue with higher broadband penetration in 5 years

Education Sector: Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sector Revenue with increase in Broadband Sector Revenue based on Base Case Analysis

Scenario 1: Broadband

Penetration in 2015: 11.5%

Scenario 3: Broadband

Penetration after 5 Years: 13.5%

Scenario 2: Broadband

Penetration in 2015: 12.5%

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Contents

Approach and Results Summary

Overview of Education Sector and Impact of Broadband

Overview of Healthcare Sector and Impact of Broadband

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Healthcare spend in India has increased from INR 929 bn in 2000

to INR 2,892 bn in 2010 and currently contributes ~3.8% of GDP

929 1,092 1,143 1,210

1,324 1,501

1,688

1,918

2,186

2,724 2,892

4.3%

4.7% 4.6%

4.3%

4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9%

4.3%

3.8%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Healthcare sector revenue Contribution to GDP

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Industry Inputs

• Healthcare spend per capita has increased at

a CAGR of 10.4% over 2000 and 2010 to grow

from INR 898 to INR 2,408

• As of Sept, 2010, government had established

146,036 health sub-centres, 23,458 primary

health centers and 4,276 Community health

centers in the country

• However, private spending dominates the total

healthcare sector revenue in India,

contributing ~75% of total healthcare sector

revenue

• Private spending accounts for over 75% of the

human resources and advanced medical

technology and 68% of all hospitals (15,097)

• Further, healthcare facilities are limited to top

few cities with 80% of doctors catering to top

20% of population

Healthcare Sector Overview: India

Healthcare Sector Revenue1 (INR bn) and

Contribution to GDP in India (%)

Tota

l H

ealthcare

Secto

r R

eve

nue

in India

(IN

R b

n)

Contrib

utio

n to

GD

P (%

)

Note: 1. Includes both public and private sector revenue

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This is much lower than the contribution of healthcare sector to

overall GDP for a majority of other international markets in 2010

• Developed countries

are characterised by relatively higher spends as % of GDP

and per capita on healthcare

• For developing countries, current

healthcare spend per capita varies between USD 500 and USD

2000, while for developed countries,

it varies between USD 4,000 and USD 6,000

Healthcare Sector Overview: International Markets

Healthcare Sector Contribution1 to GDP in International Markets (2010)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Icela

nd

Unite

d S

tate

s

Fra

nce

Gre

ece

Irel

and

Aust

ria

Belg

ium

Germ

any

Denm

ark

Uru

guay

Port

uga

l

Neth

erla

nds

Spain

Italy

Latv

ia

Slo

vaki

a

Fin

land

Sw

itzerland

Unite

d K

ingdom

Canada

Slo

venia

Cro

atia

Sw

eden

Norw

ay

Arg

ent

ina

Pola

nd

Hungar

y

Bulg

aria

Isra

el

Cze

ch R

epublic

Aust

ralia

New

Zeala

nd

Japan

Russ

ia

Rom

ania

Mexi

co

Chile

Bahra

in

India

Sin

gapore

Unite

d A

rab E

mirate

s

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor

Healthcare

Secto

r C

ontr

ibution t

o G

DP

(%

)

Note: 1. Includes both public and private sector revenue

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Based on the regression analysis, 10% increase in broadband

penetration can lead to a 131% growth in healthcare sector

• Out of the 41 countries which had experienced

an increase of 10% broadband penetration over the last 10 years, the healthcare spend per capita for 19 developing countries was

analysed

• A regression analysis was performed on the

data from 12 developing countries (after removing 7 outliers1) to obtain a regression equation to calculate average spend ($ in

PPP) at each level of broadband penetration

• Based on regression analysis, it was observed

that India’s healthcare sector could grow from INR 2,892 bn currently to INR 6,689 bn over a 10% increase in broadband penetration

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor

• Healthcare Sector Revenue Growth: 131.3%

Impact on Healthcare Sector: Regression Analysis

Approach for Regression Analysis of Healthcare

Sector Growth in Selected Developing Countries

Regression equation y = 5,427x + 741

Regression Analysis 1

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Healthcare

Spend p

er

Capita (

$P

PP

)

Broadband penetration (%)

Observed Healthcare Spend per Capita

Predicted Healthcare Spend Per Capita

Note: 1. Outliers includes countries with an already high or low spend on healthcare (by PPP)

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There are six developing countries which had a contribution of

healthcare to GDP ~4%, when broadband penetration was ~1%

• Among developing

countries, there are six

such countries which, when

at a broadband penetration

of 0.9%, had observed a

c.4% contribution to GDP

by their healthcare sector

• Time taken by these

countries to witness a

c.10% increase in

broadband penetration

varies between 4 to 7 years

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor

Developing countries which have witnessed at least 10% growth in broadband

penetration over 2000-20102

Note: 1. Each country had ~0.9% broadband penetration at different points of time; 2. Duration for 10% increase in broadband penetration could vary for each country

Contribution of Healthcare Sector to GDP at ~1% Broadband

Penetration1 for Selected Developing Countries

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Slo

venia

Uru

guay

Port

uga

l

Isra

el

Arg

ent

ina

Hungar

y

Cze

ch

Bulg

aria

Chile

Cro

atia

Pola

nd

Latv

ia

Mexi

co

Slo

vaki

a

Russ

ia

Rom

ania

Bahra

in

India

UA

EHealthcare

Secto

r C

ontr

ibution t

o G

DP

(%

)

Benchmarking Analysis 2

Impact on Healthcare Sector: Benchmarking Analysis

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These countries have witnessed 5% - 17% real CAGR in

healthcare spend with a 10% increase in BB penetration

• Increase in private investments and industry

consolidation for medical infra, resulting in the establishment of specialty hospitals

• Increasing affluence, rising prevalence of lifestyle diseases, as well as increasing incidence of epidemic outbreaks have

increased out of pocket spend on healthcare

• Rapid medical inflation, especially in the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, organ transplants and specialist services also

contributes to the increase in expenditure

• Governments policy initiatives aim to establish small-scale primary healthcare clinics, national health databases and staff training programs

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor

Healthcare Sector Growth Drivers

• Average nominal growth: 15.5%

• Average real growth (after adjustment for inflation and currency exchange rate): 10%

Benchmarking Analysis 2

Impact on Healthcare Sector: Benchmarking Analysis

Real CAGR1 of Healthcare Sector Revenue per Capita

with 10% increase in Broadband Penetration

4.5%

4.7%

7.8%

10.9%

14.9%

17.0%

UAE

Mexico

Bahrain

Romania

Russia

Slovakia

Note: 1. CAGR for period when broadband penetration in that country increased by 10%. Includes growth rate of per capita spen d after adjusting for inflation and exchange rate fluctuations

CAGR in real healthcare revenue per capita after adjusting for fluctuations in inflation and currency exchange rate

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Based on the growth rate analysis of these countries, India is

expected to witness 118% growth in healthcare sector revenues

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor, Industry Inputs

• Increase in healthcare sector revenue with

increase in Broadband penetration will primarily be driven by growth in telemedicine clinics, mobile health monitoring and survey

data collection

• Further, this growth will be supported by

initiatives by government as well as private players

Policy changes such as allowing FDI for medical

equipment, de-regulation of health insurance and

budgetary considerations for pharmaceutical and

biotech organizations drive growth in this sector

• However, in addition to broadband availability,

reliability of broadband access (uptime of 99%) and reduction in service costs will be required to drive growth of telemedicine

• As per XIth five year plan (2007-12), govt. plans to increase its spend on health sector to

2-3% in 2012

Growth in Healthcare Sector Revenue (INR bn) with

10% Increase in Broadband Penetration in India

2,892

3,377

3,946

4,615

5,398

6,317

0.9%

1.7%

3.5%

6.2%

9.5%

12.5%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Education Sector Revenue Broadband Penetration

Tota

l H

ealthcare

Secto

r R

eve

nue

(IN

R b

n)

Bro

adband P

enetra

tion (%

)

Growth Rate Calculation (2010 – 2015)

• Real CAGR of per Capita Spend: 10.0%

• Average inflation from 2010 - 2015: 6.2%

Contribution to GDP (2015): 4.3%

Benchmarking Analysis 2

Impact on Healthcare Sector: Benchmarking Analysis

Growth: 118.4%

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Based on historical growth trends, healthcare sector revenue in

India is expected to grow by 76% to reach INR 5,102 bn by 2015

Source: Analysys Mason, Euromonitor, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare

2,892

3,240

3,629

4,066

4,555

5,102

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Healthcare Sector Revenue (INR bn) based on

Historical Growth

Tota

l H

ealthcare

Secto

r R

eve

nue

in India

(IN

R b

n)

• As per base case analysis, the healthcare

sector in India is expected to grow by 76.4%

over 2010-2015 to reach INR 5,102 bn

• According to Ministry of Health and Family

Welfare, there were 1,78,601 public health

institutions (govt. hospitals, HSC, PHC and

CHC) and 10,266 private hospitals in India in

2010

• Revenue per health institution is assumed to

vary with inflation from 2010 to 2015

• By 2015, the number of number of govt. health

institutions are expected to increase to

195,000 while private hospitals are expected

to increase to 15,000 resulting in an increase

of 76.4% in sector revenues

Base Case Analysis 3

Impact on Healthcare Sector: Base Case Analysis

Growth: 76.4%

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Impact of growth drivers of sector revenue expected to increase

with higher increase in broadband penetration in 5 years

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net Growth1: 33.2%

Net Growth1: 42.0%

Net Growth1: 51.4%

Tota

l S

ecto

r R

eve

nue

2

(IN

R b

n)

Note: 1. Net growth due to various factors including increase in broadband penetration; 2. Sector revenue have been estimated in INR to avoid exchange rate fluctuations

Source: Analysys Mason

Growth drivers of healthcare sector revenue, including broadband penetration, are expected to have an

increasing impact on revenue with higher broadband penetration in 5 years

Healthcare Sector: Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sector Revenue with increase in Broadband Sector Revenue based on Base Case Analysis

Scenario 1: Broadband

Penetration in 2015: 11.5%

Scenario 3: Broadband

Penetration after 5 Years: 13.5%

Scenario 2: Broadband

Penetration in 2015: 12.5%

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