Demography, Trends and Texas
Implications of the Changing Character of the United States and Texas
Christy Woodward Kaupert, Assoc. Prof., Political ScienceUMSC Hot Potato October 6, 2009
What is demography?
Demography is the study of the
determinants and consequences of the demographic processes (fertility, mortality and migration)and of the size, distribution, and composition of the population.
Population Change then reflects:
Pt2 =Pt1 + Bt1- Bt2- Dt1- Dt2 + Mt1- Mt2
The US Population
Year Size
1815 8.3 Million
1865 35.2 Million
1935 127.1 Million
1975 214.3 Million
2000 281.4 Million
2050 439 Million
What our population looks like?
How did it turn into a dome?
Percent of popu-lation
0-2425-4445-6465+
What we know----
The white population is aging and fertility rates are lower.
The minority population is growing, both by virtue of increased migration and higher fertility rates
Lower mortality rates among the white population, increases in the youthful population among minorities present competing challenges
What are the implications?
Dr. Steve Murdock, Texas’ former state demographer says:
“As Texas goes, so goes the rest of the nation”
The reality is, the numbers drive the reality.
Hispanics are the fastest growing minority in America.
Hispanic OriginMexican
Puerto Rican
Cuban
Dominican
Central American
South Amer-ican
Other
How diverse is your state?
Concentration of White Population Concentration of
African American Population
Concentration of Hispanic Population
What are the implications for our new reality?
There are abundant policy implications in several areas:◦ Financial◦ Educational Attainment◦ Labor Force◦ Housing◦ Health
Change in Texas Household Income 2000 to 2040
Projected Enrollment in “Welfare” programs
Enrollment in “Welfare” Programs by Ethnicity
Education K-12 By Ethnicity
Ethnicity by Enrollment in Higher Educational Institutions
Labor Force by Educational Attainment
Housing
Ethnicity Renter Owner
2000 2040 2000 2040
Anglo/White 49.7 21.1 68.1 33.4
African American 17 11.9 8.2 7.4
Hispanic 29.4 57.3 21.3 50.3
Other 3.9 9.7 2.4 8.9
Percent of All Households by Tenure
Percent change in selected health care issues 2000 to 2040
Questions?
As Dr. Murdock implored us to do over a decade ago, we must be mindful of our changing population and the implication those changes will present.
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