Demography, Trends and Texas

Implications of the Changing Character of the United States and Texas

Christy Woodward Kaupert, Assoc. Prof., Political ScienceUMSC Hot Potato October 6, 2009

What is demography?

Demography is the study of the

determinants and consequences of the demographic processes (fertility, mortality and migration)and of the size, distribution, and composition of the population.

Population Change then reflects:

Pt2 =Pt1 + Bt1- Bt2- Dt1- Dt2 + Mt1- Mt2

The US Population

Year Size

1815 8.3 Million

1865 35.2 Million

1935 127.1 Million

1975 214.3 Million

2000 281.4 Million

2050 439 Million

What our population looks like?

How did it turn into a dome?

Percent of popu-lation

0-2425-4445-6465+

What we know----

The white population is aging and fertility rates are lower.

The minority population is growing, both by virtue of increased migration and higher fertility rates

Lower mortality rates among the white population, increases in the youthful population among minorities present competing challenges

What are the implications?

Dr. Steve Murdock, Texas’ former state demographer says:

“As Texas goes, so goes the rest of the nation”

The reality is, the numbers drive the reality.

Hispanics are the fastest growing minority in America.

Hispanic OriginMexican

Puerto Rican

Cuban

Dominican

Central American

South Amer-ican

Other

How diverse is your state?

Concentration of White Population Concentration of

African American Population

Concentration of Hispanic Population

What are the implications for our new reality?

There are abundant policy implications in several areas:◦ Financial◦ Educational Attainment◦ Labor Force◦ Housing◦ Health

Change in Texas Household Income 2000 to 2040

Projected Enrollment in “Welfare” programs

Enrollment in “Welfare” Programs by Ethnicity

Education K-12 By Ethnicity

Ethnicity by Enrollment in Higher Educational Institutions

Labor Force by Educational Attainment

Housing

Ethnicity Renter Owner

2000 2040 2000 2040

Anglo/White 49.7 21.1 68.1 33.4

African American 17 11.9 8.2 7.4

Hispanic 29.4 57.3 21.3 50.3

Other 3.9 9.7 2.4 8.9

Percent of All Households by Tenure

Percent change in selected health care issues 2000 to 2040

Questions?

As Dr. Murdock implored us to do over a decade ago, we must be mindful of our changing population and the implication those changes will present.