HARNESSING THE FUTURE:A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE ON SOCIAL PROTECTION
DEVELOPMENT IN EAST AFRICA
Alexander Pick, OECD Development Centre
Food Crisis Prevention Network,13 December 2016
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Social protection at the heart of Africa’s development strategy (Agenda 2063) •
• As of today, there has been a major expansion of social protection although large gaps in coverage remain
• Looking forward, several emerging trends are likely to bring additional threats to human well-being and confront Africa’s vision for social protection
• Identifying possible futures and exploring new paths for action is essential for tackling today’s social protection challenges and preparing for those of tomorrow
13-Dec-2016
Background
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• What will be the demographic, environmental, social and economic trends over the next 50 years in East Africa?
• How will these trends affect the evolving needs and conditions for social protection in the region?
• How can countries in the region adapt to these challenges while achieving Africa’s vision for social protection?
• How can social protection influence key trends?
13-Dec-2016
Key questions
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• UN projections for population growth– Up to 2100, most reliable over 30-40 years– Reliant on census data– Includes international migration
• UN projections for urbanisation– Up to 2050– Beware definitional problems
• Health projections
• Climate models
13-Dec-2016
Building a long-term projection – Demographic and environmental trends
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• Estimate long-term productivity growth• Project gross national income, reflecting productivity and
population growth
• A projection is not a forecast but a means of seeing how key variables interact within a coherent and plausible framework
13-Dec-2016
Building a long-term projection – Economic and social trends
Project long-term poverty rates assuming current level of inequality
Project structural change and implications for structure of employment
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Strong prospects for economic growth
Average annual and per capita GDP growth, 2015-
2065
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Slow structural change, persistent rural and informal employment
Employment by sector of new labour force entrants, 2015-2065
Composition of output, 2000, 2010 & 2065
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Seven grand challenges for social protection in East Africa:
1. Solving the last mile problem2. Promoting social insurance in a context of high
informality3. Confronting the employment challenge 4. Rapid urbanisation5. Climate change6. Increasing financing for social protection7. Harnessing the demographic dividend
13-Dec-2016
The way forward
THANK YOU
Alexander PICKFiscal Economist, Social Protection TeamOECD Development [email protected]+33 1 45 24 87 27
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