EXPORTING EUROPOLITICS TO THE EASTERN
NEIGHBOURHOOD:
Elections in the post-Soviet area and the regional
activity of Europarties
Angelos-Stylianos Chryssogelos (University of Limerick)
Antonios A. Nestoras (European Parliament)
EUDO Dissemination Conference, 2013
European University Institute, Florence
Introduction: Discussing ‘crisis’ in post-
Soviet states
• A crisis of state and national identities
• A crisis of international orientation
• Party politics in a little-studied region
• Transnational party cooperation as one
(among many) link between Europe and
national politics
• The ‘limited impact of Europe’ on national party systems
a) Format � Consolidation?
b) Mechanics � Polarisation?
• Europarties in the EU political system
a) Transnational actors � Link the supranational with the national
b) Main functions: Bring together likeminded actors from multiple levels of
policymaking � Coordination, exchange of information
c) Interest in establishing contacts in as many national arenas as possible �
non-EU states as well
Some theoretical propositions
• An inverse relationship between the impact of Europarties and a state’s
degree of integration in the EU:
a) Minimum effect on existing EU members
b) Significant effect on programmatic and organizational profile of parties
ahead of country’s EU accession � ‘Shadow accession process’
c) Systemic effects in countries where relationship with Europe is contested
� Europarty affiliation consequential for parties that have a strong
stance on ‘Europe’
The argument: How do Europarties matter
in national politics?
• Weakly institutionalized parties
• Lack of properly structured cleavages (even though there exist social
divisions)
• Elite-oligarchy driven parties (personal agendas)
• Semi-authoritarian political systems
• Programmatic and organizational ‘thinness’
• Party ‘non-systems’ � Main line of competition: Pro/Anti-regime
Party systems in the post-Soviet area:
General characteristics
• Eastern Partnership: Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia,
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus
• The effect of democratic revolutions:
a) ‘Democracy’ becomes a stake of competition
b) Competition remains elite-driven but…
c) Pro/anti-regime competition � post-
revolutionary/post-authoritarian competition
• Georgia – Rose Revolution (2003), Ukraine – Orange
Revolution (2004), Moldova – Twitter Revolution (2009)
Party systems in the post-Soviet area:
Signs of change
2004
Ukr-Pr
2010
Ukr-
Pr
2012
Ukr-
Parl
2009
Mold-
Parl
2010
Mold-
Parl
2008
Geo-
Pr
2012
Geo-
Parl
2013
Geo-
Pr
Post-
Revolutionaries
52% 45% 49% 52% 54% 55% 40% 22%
Post-
Authoritarians
44% 49% 43% 45% 39% 26% 55% 62%
• In the ‘shadow of Europe’: Eastern enlargement (2004-2007) and Eastern
Partnership (2008-2009)
• ‘Europe’ absorbed and instrumentalized into the post-rev./post-auth. dimension of
competition
• Particularly useful for post-revolutionary elites � Increase of polarization against
post-authoritarians – Overlap of ‘democracy’ with ‘Europe’
• More consistent expression of social divisions through parties
Party systems in the post-Soviet
area: Signs of change
• Vet potential associates
• Encourage cooperation of pro-European or likeminded forces
• Promote programmatic streamlining � Oligarchic parties acquire ideological
credentials
• Effects:
a) Important advantage for associated parties in competition with likeminded
parties � Increase chances of consolidation (format)
b) Signal associates parties’ ‘Europeanism’ � Amplify capacities for polarization
(mechanics)
What Europarties (can) do
• Three degrees of membership (for EaP: observer parties)
• Own historical experience � Encouragement to merge-consolidate / Tempted by strength
• Ukraine: Amplified the process of post-Orange consolidation around Yulia Tymoshenko �
Contributes to polarization by supporting her through her prosecution
• Georgia: Associated with Saakashvili’s UNM � Important support after loss of power �
Improves prospects for survival in opposition
• Moldova: Association with PLDM � Elite-driven party with strong electoral presence. EPP
association increases its ideological credentials and access to resources
The regional activity of Europarties:
The European People’s Party
2002 2006 2007 2012
Yushchenko 24.5% 13.9% 14.2% 1.1%
Tymoshenko 7.5% 22.3% 30.7% 25.6%
UDAR - - - 14.0%
2004 2008 2012
Winning party
(vote % and no. of
seats)
UNM
67%
135/235
UNM
59%
119/150
Georg. Dream
55%
85/150
Main opposition
(vote % and no. of
seats)
Rightists
7.6%
15/235
Untd. Oppos.
17.7%
17/150
UNM
40%
65/150
EPP-close party results in Ukraine – Parliamentary elections
Party-Opposition balance of power in Georgia – Parliamentary elections
• Three degrees of membership (for EaP: observer parties)
• Generally supportive of post-revolutionaries during democratization
• Tempted by the prospect of competing with EPP
• Ukraine: Initial contacts with post-authoritarian Party of the Regions
• Moldova: Association with PDM (pro-European party started by an authoritarian
defector and championed by an oligarch)
• Georgia: Interest in association with post-post-authoritarian Georgian Dream
• May serve as initiator of reform and ‘normalization’ of post-authoritarian parties
The regional activity of Europarties:
The Party of European Socialists
• Support for pro-European coalitions � Contributes to polarization
• One degree of membership � EaP parties full members!
• Attracts more principled ideological partners
• Moldova: PL initial exponent of post-revolutionary tradition, has lost power,
split
• Georgia: Two small parties within the Georgian Dream coalition � ALDE
became the most vocal opponent of Saakashvili � Direct attacks on EPP
The regional activity of Europarties:
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe
• Allies: Initially contribute to polarization by uniting behind post-revolutionaries
• Contribute to consolidation (fewer parties) by offering ideological, organizational
and political resources to associates (amplifying > primary influence)
• Competitors: Support of different sides of the post-rev/post-auth divide
(Georgia, almost Ukraine) / Fragmentation of post-rev coalitions (Moldova)
• Consolidation of partisan corporate identities, some ideological streamlining of
elite-oligarchic projects
General conclusions:
The role of Europarties in EaP countries
• Crucial indicator: Strength of parties in opposition (Ukraine yes, Georgia
possibly, Moldova uncertain)
• Polarization-consistency of party competition:
pro/anti-regime < post-rev/post-auth < Europeanist/non-Europeanist
• Evidence of consolidation of partisan labels
• Parties still elite projects. Some programmatic, little organizational progress
• Next electoral cycles (Moldova 2014, Ukraine 2015, Georgia 2016) crucial
General conclusions:
Prospects for EaP party systems
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