Exit, Voice and Loyalty: Migration, crisis and the
‘discourses of discontent’ in post-communist society
Charles WoolfsonREMESO, Institute for Research on
Migration, Ethnicity and Society, Linköping University
Structure of Presentation
1. ‘Exit’, ‘voice’ and ‘loyalty’
2. The crisis of post-communist neo-liberalism
3. Responses to the crisis - ‘discourses of discontent’
4. Failure of ‘voice’ and renewed ‘exit’ –
a ‘second surge’ of migration from East to West?
Exit,Voice and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and
States Albert O. Hirschman, 1970.
• Disappointment of expectations as the quality of services in an organisation deteriorates
• ‘Exit’ – leave the organisation • ‘Voice’ - expression of dissatisfaction - ‘general
protest addressed to anyone who cares to listen’• ‘Loyalty’ - confounding factor– tends to delay
‘exit’ and legitimise ‘voice’• Both ‘exit’ and ‘voice’ can be ‘recuperative
mechanisms’ allowing organisational recovery• ‘Voice’ and ‘exit’ can also work together to
reinforce organisational failure rather than recovery
Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) 2008
• Lithuania’s economic miracle continues unabated. With one of the highest growth rates in Europe and a marked decrease in unemployment, the country now enjoys the benefits of reforms implemented during the 1990s.
• EU accession in 2004 further bolstered the country’s continuing economic miracle.
Source http://www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de/fileadmin/pdf/Gutachten_BTI_2008/ECSE/Lithuania.pdf
Corporate taxes in the selected countries, 2004: 11 lowest rates of
taxation (percent)
Source: UNCTAD 2004, World Investment Report 2003, Geneva 78
Loans to non-financial enterprises and households
Source: Bank of Lithuania, Financial Stability Review, 2006 from Rainer Kattel Financial Fragility in the Baltic States
GDP 2009 % change compared with the same
quarter of the previous year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Estonia -15.0 -16.1 -15.6 -9.5
Latvia -18.5 -17.0 -19.2 -17.1
Lithuania -15.3 -16.6 -14.7 -13.2
source: Eurostat PEEIs http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-07042010-BP/EN/2-07042010-BP-EN.PDF
Construction output 2009 – annual variation % change compared with the same quarter of the previous year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Estonia -31.3 -28.3 -28.5 -25.7
Latvia -29.7 -32.4 -36.8 -38.5
Lithuania -42.8 -48.0 -49.3 -52.3
Volume of retail trade Sep 09 – Feb 10 % change compared with the same month of
the previous year Sept 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan10
Feb10
Estonia -21.3 -18.6 -21.2 -16.0 -9.0 -7.2
Latvia -30.5 -28.6 -30.1 -30.1 -16.0 -13.3
Lithuania -25.6 -24.7 -27.5 -26.7 -16.8 -17.1
Household consumption expenditure 2009 % change compared to same quarter of
2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Estonia -16.5 -19.4 -19.9 -18.2
Latvia -18.3 -23.5 -25.6 -21.7
Lithuania -14.5 -16.9 -17.7 -19.0
Source: Eurostat PEEIs http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-17032010-AP/EN/3-17032010-AP-EN.PDF
Total hourly labour costs Q4 2009 compared to same quarter of 2008
Unemployment in the Baltic States: by quarter 2009/2010
source: Statistics Lithuania http://www.stat.gov.lt/en/news/view?id=8612&PHPSESSID=b76ba862ad603ba09ac9822e498ca4ec
IMF Global Economic Outlook April 2010
• Economies that faced the crisis with unsustainable domestic booms that had fueled excessively large current account deficits (Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania) and those with vulnerable private or public sector balance sheets (Hungary, Romania, Baltics) are expected to recover more slowly.
‘Voice’• Unfolding ‘narratives of resistance’ or
‘discourses of discontent’ from below• Addressed to ruling authorities and posing
incompatible (?) questions about the new social order (post-communism).
• A condensed ‘telegraphy of protest’ - news reports, slogans on banners and placards, protest manifestos and declarations, voices on the street.
• Issues of fairness and social justice and perceived betrayal of expectations
Discourses of discontent
Why are you unhappy?
‘I paid so much taxes that this is all I have left’ – holds up plastic bag of white ‘cent’ coins.
‘This is not what we imagined. We imagined a completely different Lithuania. All people want justice.
Cumulative outflows of EU8 citizens into EU15 Member States (2004-2007)
% of Working Age Population of Individual EU8 Countries
Source: Francesca D'Auria, Kieran Mc Morrow and Karl Pichelmann, Economic impact of migration flows following the 2004 EU enlargement process: A model based analysis.
Emigration and Immigration 1990-2006
Source: International Migration of Lithuanian Population 2006, Statistics Lithuania
Lithuania official migration statistics 2001-2008
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
7 253 7 086 11 032 15 165 15 571 12 602 13 853 17 015
Source: Statistics Lithuania
NB. 60% underestimate of true figure suggests that actual figure for 2008 equals the peak the 2005 post-EU accession surge.
“In the spiritual sense, we have a lot of people disappointed with their authorities and the state, citizens who believe in nothing, and we must breathe self-confidence and trust in a common Lithuanian future into these citizens”. A. Kubilius, Prime Minister of Lithuania, April 2009.
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/22716/
The end of ‘loyalty’
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