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Figure 1
THE SYMBOLIC CAPITAL OF KAZAKH AND TURKISH DIPLOMACIES
FROM MIDDLE EAST TO CENTRAL ASIA
ERI PUBLICATIONS2(2013)
Dr. Murat EMREK
Eurasian Research Institute (ERI) Director
Daniyar KOSNAZAROV
Eurasian Research Institute (ERI) Expert
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THE SYMBOLIC CAPITAL OF KAZAKH AND TURKISH
DIPLOMACIES FROM MIDDLE EAST TO CENTRAL ASIAWHILE TURKISH-KAZAKH RELATIONS EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE KAZAKH PRESIDENT
NURSULTAN NAZARBAYEVS VISIT TO TURKEY WILL THERE BE A NEW VENUE FOR THE KAZAKH-TURKISHCOOPERATION IN DIPLOMACY. PROBABLY WE WILL BE ABLE TO RECEIVE TANGIBLE ANSWERS TO OUR QUESTIONS
IN THE FORTHCOMING DAYS.
It is the utmost importance to comprehend the
domestic politics in its relations with the
international system especially in regard to
Kazakhstan and Turkey. It is also for sure that
within the international system, the negotiations
occupy more attention than the space they
occupy in the world politics. Experiencing
negotiations come forward within the political
economy of foreign policy making vis--vis theinternational organizations as in the case of
Turkeys longstanding negotiations with the
European Union (EU) or Tajikistans
negotiations with the World Trade Organization
(WTO) having resulted in the formers
membership on March 2, 2013.
Kazakhstans active negotiation process within
the frame of the Eurasian Customs Union serves
another example. However, as the Arab-Israeli
conflict has shown that negotiations do not need
to follow peaceful means or reach peaceful
ends always since peace talks could rather
exacerbate the situation.
To begin with, domestic problems deriving from
conflicts often shape the negotiation agenda with
the participation of international organizations,
foreign states, civil society organizations and
even some various movements. If one pays
attention to Afghanistan, a hot topic since 9/11in the international politics, especially the
Central Asian leaders started to figure out what
will happen next and how it will affect their rule.
The USA, the UK and Pakistan do strongly
assert that Taliban has recently begun to
negotiate with the Afghan officials intensely.
During the last February meeting on Afghanistan
peace process in the UK, three aforementioned
states urged Taliban decide within six months
who should represent the movement in these
talks.
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The 2015 road map drafted by the Afghan
High Peace Council, leaked somehow on the
internet, emphasizes the role not only of Pakistan
as an indispensable part of the peace process, but
also stresses on beginning negotiations with the
Taliban as a key solution to the several decades
old problems. In this context there was a recent
decision to open representative body of
Taliban in Qatar having depicted a paradigm
shift in the orientation of not only in Kabul but
also in Washington towards the Taliban.
Moreover, it seems that Taliban has changed a
lot in time since it has lost government but not
the whole power following the invasion of
Afghanistan by the coalition forces led by the
US. We see more lines in the papers regarding
the diplomatic side of the organization than its
military aspect. However, it is not clear yet what
results to be awaited from this initiative and whatcould be accomplished in time.
Needless to say mediation is still a very crucial
asset for the states trying to play larger role on
world stage they own as in the cases of Turkey
and Kazakhstan. Turkey, has transformed its
foreign policy understanding from freezing the
international status quo intact through just
keeping especially its borders unchanged to
multi-dimensional perspective via proactive and
rhythmic diplomacy. Turkey has also appearedan ambitious state competing for an opportunity
to host an office for the Taliban. Moreover,
Turkey clearly declared its frustration with
results of the negotiation processes with Brussels
on its EU membership bid as the PM Recep
Tayyip Erdoan quite recently expressed
Turkeys willingness to enter into the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO). This brought a
huge discussion if Turkey is just bluffing or
really maneuvering its steer from the West to
East.
Turkey is not alone in such indecisiveness as its
brother Kazakhstan gives confusing messages
where to settle itself between the East and the
West while trying to receive a bigger share in theshowoff politics as it will host the Expo 2017
and welcomed the negotiations between Iran and
the P5+1/EU3+3 (USA, France, Great Britain,
China, Russia and Germany) on 25-26 of
February and 56 April 2013 twice about the
formers nuclear issue which has become a
global security threat for the Western world.
As many experts have previously assumed the
first Almaty Round did not fruit with the
productive outcome. However, all sides agreed
to meet again in Almaty during 5-6 April 2013.
In particular, six states and Iran decided to
hold technical expertise meeting of in Istanbul in
mid-March permitting a venue for Turkey to
keep itself within this process still. However the
second round of nuclear talks ended with the
agreement that the parties do not agree on
anything which is not an agreement at the lastinstance. This indecisiveness though has not
overshadowed the Kazakh hospitality but
cracked its further thoughts of hosting further
such meetings.
If one considers previous three rounds of
international talks on Irans nuclear issue took
place once in Turkey, Iraq and Russia beside
three gatherings in Geneva at the highest level,
decision to host talks in Kazakhstan for a second
time indicates the advantages of Astana in beingfar more neutral than the former three countries.
Maybe just for that particular reason both Iran
and P5+1/EU3+3 officials stated that Almaty
talks in general was a positive step despite
various provocative statements in before and
after the negotiations in Almaty.
One should not forget that Turkey, Iraq and
Russia have already represented their own
interests in these peace talks with Iran. Russia is
among the six negotiators due to its seat in the
Security Council of the UN. As for Iraq, one
NEEDLESS TO SAY MEDIATION IS STILL A VERY
CRUCIAL ASSET FOR THE STATES TRYING TO PLAY
LARGER ROLE ON WORLD STAGE THEY OWN AS IN THE
CASES OF TURKEY AND KAZAKHSTAN.
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could not probably fully understand Iraqs
position while neglecting the Sunni-Shia rivalry,
which has come to the picture after Malikis
government in the last decade following the end
of the Saddam Husseins dictatorship. Regarding
Turkey, any Turkish-Iranian cooperation vis--
vis the separatist Kurdish PJAK (for Iran) or
PKK (for Turkey) is crucial. Moreover, Ankara
had more pragmatic concerns of oil and gas
imports from Iran and trade in general beside
ages long Turkish-Persian rivalry in the larger
region from the Middle East to Central Asia.
As for Kazakhstan, its gains will be more less
than each of any aforementioned states.
However, if to comprehend the priority given to
the boosting of international image of
Kazakhstan, Irans nuclear talks do really matter.
Moreover, the Almaty rounds helped relatively
Kazakh interests about forming available
conditions to establish a nuclear bank in
Kazakhstan.
AS ONE BUNDLE
It is necessary to remind that the decision on
Kazakhstan as the most convenient place for the
fourth round of Iran-P5+1/EU3+3 negotiationswas not a random one since alternatives such as
Egypt and Turkmenistan were already on the
table. However, Catherine Ashton, the High
Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and
Security Policy, made in favor of Kazakhstan. It
was significant for the EU to provide this
opportunity for Kazakhstan due to its symbolic
capital of its anti-nuclear stand as a country
having given up its nuclear arsenal after the end
of the Soviet rule.
However Kazakhstan was also valuable due to
the forthcoming withdrawal of coalition forcesfrom Afghanistan. It is well known that military
equipment will be transferred as through
Pakistan employing the Central Asian corridor.
Moreover, French transitional point has recently
started functioning in southern part of
Kazakhstan. Besides, Europeans keep their
desire to tap energy resources via pipelines to
bypass Russia. Alternative sources claim that EU
is forming new strategy on Central Asia for
2014-2020. In this respect, the level of trust
gained on these stages, will allow Brusselsfurther build and strengthen its relations with
Central Asian states after withdrawal of forces
from Afghanistan. However, the complete
withdrawal is less than expected since Pentagon
considers opportunity of later maintenance of the
US troops within three to nine thousand soldiers
on the Afghan land.
Stemming from this fact, various international
processes should be considered as interconnected
entities. It is known that Iran and Hezbollahprovide financial support and have ties with the
military groups in Syria. Thus, Iran nuclear issue
to be solved might have contributed to the
resolution of conflicts and normalization of
certain Middle Eastern states as well as
consolidating the Arab Spring. At the same time
continuing sanctions against Iran negatively
affect natural resource importing states including
China and the EU countries.
IT WAS SIGNIFICANT FOR THE EU TO PROVIDE THIS
OPPORTUNITY FORKAZAKHSTAN DUE TO ITSSYMBOLIC CAPITAL OF ITS ANTI-NUCLEAR STAND AS A
COUNTRY HAVING GIVEN UP ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL
AFTER THE END OF THE SOVIET RULE
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IMPORTANT: WHAT IS INSIDE?
There is an interactive relation between foreign
and domestic policies of every country since the
international politics is very shaped by the
domestic politics and the concomitant
considerations. For instance, negotiating with the
Taliban could not be easily comprehended
without considering 2014 as the year for the
coalition forces to withdraw from Afghanistan as
well as the presidential elections there. The
current Afghan President Khamid Karzai cannot
be re-elected for his third term consecutively,
however successful negotiation with Taliban will
certainly strengthen the position of new
candidate backed by him.
For Obama administration Afghanistan is
important in terms of the US domestic policysince he harshly criticized the Republicans about
their policy in Afghanistan which even brought
him the 2009 Noble Prize for peace as a
motivating gesture in relation to end of the war.
For the Democrats it is significant to end the war
before Obama leaves the office.
Afghanistan is not alone when it comes to the
issue of elections since Iran will hold the next
presidential elections in 2013 June. Thus nuclearprogram in terms of rhetoric consolidates not
only society as a nation in Iran but also Iranian
political elite at least shadowing the struggle and
fragmentation among themselves. Thus, it will
be futile to anticipate concrete decisions from the
Iranian side on its nuclear issue before the
elections.
The international negotiations regarding
Afghanistan and Iran seem to shape world
politics in the close future. In this sense,
Kazakhstan needs to structure its relations with
international partners taking these issues into
account. Importantly, these negotiations could
affect the power transition within Kazakhstan to
a certain extent. It is more than ever important to
build an international consensus with regard to
succession of power in Kazakhstan in order to
make it happen smoothly.
Consequently, taking all these aspects into
consideration, Astana is eagerly active about
mediation and negotiation facilities in order to
become the so-called bridge between the East
and the West that we were used to hear a lot
about Turkish foreign policy before the Justice
and Development Party (JDP) era which changedits rhetorical position from bridge to center.
It is also necessary to mention that Almaty will
hold an event on issue of Afghanistan within
frame of Istanbul Process.
Thus, one should also ask whether these Kazakh
diplomatic efforts will lead to a new round of
talks with the Taliban on Kazakh soil? While
Turkish-Kazakh relations experience further
improvement following the Kazakh President
Nursultan Nazarbayevs visit to Turkey willthere be a new venue for the Kazakh-Turkish
cooperation in diplomacy. Probably we will be
able to receive tangible answers to our questions
in the forthcoming days.
*This article previously was published in
Todays Zaman Think Tanks section.
CONSEQUENTLY, TAKING ALL THESE ASPECTS INTO
CONSIDERATION,ASTANA IS EAGERLY ACTIVE ABOUT
MEDIATION AND NEGOTIATION FACILITIES IN ORDER TO
BECOME THE SO-CALLED BRIDGE BETWEEN THE EAST
AND THE WEST THAT WE WERE USED TO HEAR A LOT
ABOUT TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY BEFORE THE JUSTICE
AND DEVELOPMENT PARTY (JDP) ERA WHICH CHANGED
ITS RHETORICAL POSITION FROM BRIDGE TO
CENTER.
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DANIYARKOSNAZAROV
EURASIAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ERI)EXPERT
GRADUATE STUDENT OF SPECIAL MASTER'S PROGRAM FORCENTRAL ASIAN
COUNTRIES,UNIVERSITY OF TSUKUBA,JAPAN
DR.MURAT EMREK
EURASIAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ERI)DIRECTOR
DEAN OF THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS DEPARTMENT OF SELCUKUNIVERSITY,
TURKEY
PHD IN POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION,
BILKENT UNIVERSITY,TURKEY
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