ERI Publications №2: The Symbolic Capital of Kazakh and Turkish Diplomacies from Middle East to...

7/30/2019 ERI Publications 2: The Symbolic Capital of Kazakh and Turkish Diplomacies from Middle East to Central Asia

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Figure 1

THE SYMBOLIC CAPITAL OF KAZAKH AND TURKISH DIPLOMACIES

FROM MIDDLE EAST TO CENTRAL ASIA

ERI PUBLICATIONS2(2013)

Dr. Murat EMREK

Eurasian Research Institute (ERI) Director

Daniyar KOSNAZAROV

Eurasian Research Institute (ERI) Expert


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THE SYMBOLIC CAPITAL OF KAZAKH AND TURKISH

DIPLOMACIES FROM MIDDLE EAST TO CENTRAL ASIAWHILE TURKISH-KAZAKH RELATIONS EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE KAZAKH PRESIDENT

NURSULTAN NAZARBAYEVS VISIT TO TURKEY WILL THERE BE A NEW VENUE FOR THE KAZAKH-TURKISHCOOPERATION IN DIPLOMACY. PROBABLY WE WILL BE ABLE TO RECEIVE TANGIBLE ANSWERS TO OUR QUESTIONS

IN THE FORTHCOMING DAYS.

It is the utmost importance to comprehend the

domestic politics in its relations with the

international system especially in regard to

Kazakhstan and Turkey. It is also for sure that

within the international system, the negotiations

occupy more attention than the space they

occupy in the world politics. Experiencing

negotiations come forward within the political

economy of foreign policy making vis--vis theinternational organizations as in the case of

Turkeys longstanding negotiations with the

European Union (EU) or Tajikistans

negotiations with the World Trade Organization

(WTO) having resulted in the formers

membership on March 2, 2013.

Kazakhstans active negotiation process within

the frame of the Eurasian Customs Union serves

another example. However, as the Arab-Israeli

conflict has shown that negotiations do not need

to follow peaceful means or reach peaceful

ends always since peace talks could rather

exacerbate the situation.

To begin with, domestic problems deriving from

conflicts often shape the negotiation agenda with

the participation of international organizations,

foreign states, civil society organizations and

even some various movements. If one pays

attention to Afghanistan, a hot topic since 9/11in the international politics, especially the

Central Asian leaders started to figure out what

will happen next and how it will affect their rule.

The USA, the UK and Pakistan do strongly

assert that Taliban has recently begun to

negotiate with the Afghan officials intensely.

During the last February meeting on Afghanistan

peace process in the UK, three aforementioned

states urged Taliban decide within six months

who should represent the movement in these

talks.


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The 2015 road map drafted by the Afghan

High Peace Council, leaked somehow on the

internet, emphasizes the role not only of Pakistan

as an indispensable part of the peace process, but

also stresses on beginning negotiations with the

Taliban as a key solution to the several decades

old problems. In this context there was a recent

decision to open representative body of

Taliban in Qatar having depicted a paradigm

shift in the orientation of not only in Kabul but

also in Washington towards the Taliban.

Moreover, it seems that Taliban has changed a

lot in time since it has lost government but not

the whole power following the invasion of

Afghanistan by the coalition forces led by the

US. We see more lines in the papers regarding

the diplomatic side of the organization than its

military aspect. However, it is not clear yet what

results to be awaited from this initiative and whatcould be accomplished in time.

Needless to say mediation is still a very crucial

asset for the states trying to play larger role on

world stage they own as in the cases of Turkey

and Kazakhstan. Turkey, has transformed its

foreign policy understanding from freezing the

international status quo intact through just

keeping especially its borders unchanged to

multi-dimensional perspective via proactive and

rhythmic diplomacy. Turkey has also appearedan ambitious state competing for an opportunity

to host an office for the Taliban. Moreover,

Turkey clearly declared its frustration with

results of the negotiation processes with Brussels

on its EU membership bid as the PM Recep

Tayyip Erdoan quite recently expressed

Turkeys willingness to enter into the Shanghai

Cooperation Organization (SCO). This brought a

huge discussion if Turkey is just bluffing or

really maneuvering its steer from the West to

East.

Turkey is not alone in such indecisiveness as its

brother Kazakhstan gives confusing messages

where to settle itself between the East and the

West while trying to receive a bigger share in theshowoff politics as it will host the Expo 2017

and welcomed the negotiations between Iran and

the P5+1/EU3+3 (USA, France, Great Britain,

China, Russia and Germany) on 25-26 of

February and 56 April 2013 twice about the

formers nuclear issue which has become a

global security threat for the Western world.

As many experts have previously assumed the

first Almaty Round did not fruit with the

productive outcome. However, all sides agreed

to meet again in Almaty during 5-6 April 2013.

In particular, six states and Iran decided to

hold technical expertise meeting of in Istanbul in

mid-March permitting a venue for Turkey to

keep itself within this process still. However the

second round of nuclear talks ended with the

agreement that the parties do not agree on

anything which is not an agreement at the lastinstance. This indecisiveness though has not

overshadowed the Kazakh hospitality but

cracked its further thoughts of hosting further

such meetings.

If one considers previous three rounds of

international talks on Irans nuclear issue took

place once in Turkey, Iraq and Russia beside

three gatherings in Geneva at the highest level,

decision to host talks in Kazakhstan for a second

time indicates the advantages of Astana in beingfar more neutral than the former three countries.

Maybe just for that particular reason both Iran

and P5+1/EU3+3 officials stated that Almaty

talks in general was a positive step despite

various provocative statements in before and

after the negotiations in Almaty.

One should not forget that Turkey, Iraq and

Russia have already represented their own

interests in these peace talks with Iran. Russia is

among the six negotiators due to its seat in the

Security Council of the UN. As for Iraq, one

NEEDLESS TO SAY MEDIATION IS STILL A VERY

CRUCIAL ASSET FOR THE STATES TRYING TO PLAY

LARGER ROLE ON WORLD STAGE THEY OWN AS IN THE

CASES OF TURKEY AND KAZAKHSTAN.


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could not probably fully understand Iraqs

position while neglecting the Sunni-Shia rivalry,

which has come to the picture after Malikis

government in the last decade following the end

of the Saddam Husseins dictatorship. Regarding

Turkey, any Turkish-Iranian cooperation vis--

vis the separatist Kurdish PJAK (for Iran) or

PKK (for Turkey) is crucial. Moreover, Ankara

had more pragmatic concerns of oil and gas

imports from Iran and trade in general beside

ages long Turkish-Persian rivalry in the larger

region from the Middle East to Central Asia.

As for Kazakhstan, its gains will be more less

than each of any aforementioned states.

However, if to comprehend the priority given to

the boosting of international image of

Kazakhstan, Irans nuclear talks do really matter.

Moreover, the Almaty rounds helped relatively

Kazakh interests about forming available

conditions to establish a nuclear bank in

Kazakhstan.

AS ONE BUNDLE

It is necessary to remind that the decision on

Kazakhstan as the most convenient place for the

fourth round of Iran-P5+1/EU3+3 negotiationswas not a random one since alternatives such as

Egypt and Turkmenistan were already on the

table. However, Catherine Ashton, the High

Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and

Security Policy, made in favor of Kazakhstan. It

was significant for the EU to provide this

opportunity for Kazakhstan due to its symbolic

capital of its anti-nuclear stand as a country

having given up its nuclear arsenal after the end

of the Soviet rule.

However Kazakhstan was also valuable due to

the forthcoming withdrawal of coalition forcesfrom Afghanistan. It is well known that military

equipment will be transferred as through

Pakistan employing the Central Asian corridor.

Moreover, French transitional point has recently

started functioning in southern part of

Kazakhstan. Besides, Europeans keep their

desire to tap energy resources via pipelines to

bypass Russia. Alternative sources claim that EU

is forming new strategy on Central Asia for

2014-2020. In this respect, the level of trust

gained on these stages, will allow Brusselsfurther build and strengthen its relations with

Central Asian states after withdrawal of forces

from Afghanistan. However, the complete

withdrawal is less than expected since Pentagon

considers opportunity of later maintenance of the

US troops within three to nine thousand soldiers

on the Afghan land.

Stemming from this fact, various international

processes should be considered as interconnected

entities. It is known that Iran and Hezbollahprovide financial support and have ties with the

military groups in Syria. Thus, Iran nuclear issue

to be solved might have contributed to the

resolution of conflicts and normalization of

certain Middle Eastern states as well as

consolidating the Arab Spring. At the same time

continuing sanctions against Iran negatively

affect natural resource importing states including

China and the EU countries.

IT WAS SIGNIFICANT FOR THE EU TO PROVIDE THIS

OPPORTUNITY FORKAZAKHSTAN DUE TO ITSSYMBOLIC CAPITAL OF ITS ANTI-NUCLEAR STAND AS A

COUNTRY HAVING GIVEN UP ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL

AFTER THE END OF THE SOVIET RULE


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IMPORTANT: WHAT IS INSIDE?

There is an interactive relation between foreign

and domestic policies of every country since the

international politics is very shaped by the

domestic politics and the concomitant

considerations. For instance, negotiating with the

Taliban could not be easily comprehended

without considering 2014 as the year for the

coalition forces to withdraw from Afghanistan as

well as the presidential elections there. The

current Afghan President Khamid Karzai cannot

be re-elected for his third term consecutively,

however successful negotiation with Taliban will

certainly strengthen the position of new

candidate backed by him.

For Obama administration Afghanistan is

important in terms of the US domestic policysince he harshly criticized the Republicans about

their policy in Afghanistan which even brought

him the 2009 Noble Prize for peace as a

motivating gesture in relation to end of the war.

For the Democrats it is significant to end the war

before Obama leaves the office.

Afghanistan is not alone when it comes to the

issue of elections since Iran will hold the next

presidential elections in 2013 June. Thus nuclearprogram in terms of rhetoric consolidates not

only society as a nation in Iran but also Iranian

political elite at least shadowing the struggle and

fragmentation among themselves. Thus, it will

be futile to anticipate concrete decisions from the

Iranian side on its nuclear issue before the

elections.

The international negotiations regarding

Afghanistan and Iran seem to shape world

politics in the close future. In this sense,

Kazakhstan needs to structure its relations with

international partners taking these issues into

account. Importantly, these negotiations could

affect the power transition within Kazakhstan to

a certain extent. It is more than ever important to

build an international consensus with regard to

succession of power in Kazakhstan in order to

make it happen smoothly.

Consequently, taking all these aspects into

consideration, Astana is eagerly active about

mediation and negotiation facilities in order to

become the so-called bridge between the East

and the West that we were used to hear a lot

about Turkish foreign policy before the Justice

and Development Party (JDP) era which changedits rhetorical position from bridge to center.

It is also necessary to mention that Almaty will

hold an event on issue of Afghanistan within

frame of Istanbul Process.

Thus, one should also ask whether these Kazakh

diplomatic efforts will lead to a new round of

talks with the Taliban on Kazakh soil? While

Turkish-Kazakh relations experience further

improvement following the Kazakh President

Nursultan Nazarbayevs visit to Turkey willthere be a new venue for the Kazakh-Turkish

cooperation in diplomacy. Probably we will be

able to receive tangible answers to our questions

in the forthcoming days.

*This article previously was published in

Todays Zaman Think Tanks section.

CONSEQUENTLY, TAKING ALL THESE ASPECTS INTO

CONSIDERATION,ASTANA IS EAGERLY ACTIVE ABOUT

MEDIATION AND NEGOTIATION FACILITIES IN ORDER TO

BECOME THE SO-CALLED BRIDGE BETWEEN THE EAST

AND THE WEST THAT WE WERE USED TO HEAR A LOT

ABOUT TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY BEFORE THE JUSTICE

AND DEVELOPMENT PARTY (JDP) ERA WHICH CHANGED

ITS RHETORICAL POSITION FROM BRIDGE TO

CENTER.


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DANIYARKOSNAZAROV

EURASIAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ERI)EXPERT

GRADUATE STUDENT OF SPECIAL MASTER'S PROGRAM FORCENTRAL ASIAN

COUNTRIES,UNIVERSITY OF TSUKUBA,JAPAN

DR.MURAT EMREK

EURASIAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ERI)DIRECTOR

DEAN OF THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS DEPARTMENT OF SELCUKUNIVERSITY,

TURKEY

PHD IN POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION,

BILKENT UNIVERSITY,TURKEY

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