Economic & Industry Update March 8, 2011 Bob Costello Chief
Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations
Slide 2
Sources: Federal Reserve & ATA Manufacturing Output
Seasonally Adjusted Level of Output; Index (2007=100) 2000-2013
Forecast (annual average) 4.7% 3.2% 3.8%
Slide 3
Sources: Census Bureau & ATA Retail Sales Seasonally
Adjusted Annual Rates; Billions of Dollars 2000-2013 Forecast
(annual average) Billions 3.5% 3.0% 2.6%
Slide 4
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and ATA Wages Fell, but
are Rising Again Private wages & salary disbursements; billions
US$, annual rate
Slide 5
Sources: Federal Reserve and ATA Household Net Worth Millions
1980 Q3: 2010
Slide 6
Sources: Federal Reserve and ATA Household Debt Service Ratio
Percentage of Disposable Personal Income 1980 Q3 2010
Slide 7
Sources: Census Bureau & ATA Housing Starts Seasonally
Adjusted Annual Rates 2000-2013 Forecast (annual average) Millions
16% 61% 31%
Slide 8
Sources: Census Bureau and ATA Total Business
Inventories-to-Sales Ratio (Includes retail, wholesale, and
manufacturing; Through December 2010)
Slide 9
Sources: Department of Labor and ATA Retail Inflation Measures
Seasonally Adjusted; Year-over-Year Percent Change Through January
2011 Inflation is not a near-term threat, but something to watch in
the longer-run.
Slide 10
Sources: Federal Reserve and ATA Businesses are Cash Rich
Percentage of Liquid Assets to Total Assets Liquid Assets Millions
1952 Q3 2010
Slide 11
(Real GDP, Annual percent change, 2005 dollars) Real Gross
Domestic Product Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA 2008 2011
Long-run Average (3%) Annual GDP Numbers 2009:-2.6% 2010:+2.9%
2011:+3.2% 2012:+2.9%
Slide 12
Slide 13
Source: Wall Street Journal Oil Prices (WTI) Price Per
Barrel
Slide 14
Source: Energy Information Administration On-Highway Diesel
Prices Price Per Gallon
Slide 15
Sources: ATA, EIA, and Highway Statistics Industry Diesel
Expense Forecasts are derived from EIA diesel price forecasts and
ATA truck freight volume forecasts. Forecast Billions
Slide 16
Motor Carrier Trends Demand Demand
Slide 17
Source: ATAs Monthly Truck Tonnage Report For-Hire Truck
Tonnage Annual Percent Change Includes TL & LTL
Slide 18
Source: ATAs Monthly Truck Tonnage Report ATAs For-Hire Truck
Tonnage Index Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100 Through
January2011
Source: ATAs Trucking Activity Report ATAs For-Hire TL Loads
Index Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100 Through December 2010
Slide 21
Source: ATAs Trucking Activity Report Loads by TL Sector 2010
Compared with 2009
Slide 22
ATAs For-Hire TL & LTL Revenue Indexes Seasonally Adjusted;
2000 = 100 Through December 2010 TL average Revenue/Mile Source:
ATAs Trucking Activity Report LTL average Revenue/Ton
Slide 23
Motor Carrier Trends Supply Capacity Additions or
Replacements?
Slide 24
Sources: ACT Research & ATA U.S. Class 8 Trucks Average Age
1995-2010
Slide 25
Source: Wards U.S. Class 8 Truck Sales Monthly Retail Sales;
Through January 2011 Annual Figures 2005:253k 2006:284k 2007:151k
2008:133k 2009: 95k 2010:106k 2011:111k (rate from Jan only)
Slide 26
Source: ATA Illustration: Trade Cycle of a 2005 OTR Tractor
Normal Mileage vs Actual and Projected Mileage Trade Point: 550,000
Miles Normal Mileage: 115,000/Year Actual Mileage based on average
miles per truck per year from fleet surveys. Projected Mileage:
100,000 in 2010 and 115,000 in 2011.
Slide 27
Sources: TMC, Motor Carrier Annual Reports, and ATA Maintenance
Costs per Mile
Slide 28
Financing Required $45,000 Used Truck Value $50,000 New Truck
Price $95,000 Financing Required $75,000 Used Truck Value $45,000
New Truck Price $120,000 Truck Purchase Decision This example is
for illustration purposes only. Actual numbers may vary.
20062010
Slide 29
Source: Avondale Partners, LLC Trucking Failures Failures only
includes fleets with at least five trucks
Slide 30
Source: ATA For-Hire TL Supply vs Demand 2005 = 100 Through
December 2010 TL Loads Index TL Tractor Count Index Oversupply
Slide 31
Tires Regulations Equipment Fuel Driver Wages Cost Pressures
from All Directions