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Economic & Industry Update March 8, 2011 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations

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Sources: Federal Reserve & ATA Manufacturing Output Seasonally Adjusted Level of Output; Index (2007=100) 2000-2013 Forecast (annual average) 4.7% 3.2% 3.8%

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Sources: Census Bureau & ATA Retail Sales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates; Billions of Dollars 2000-2013 Forecast (annual average) Billions 3.5% 3.0% 2.6%

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Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and ATA Wages Fell, but are Rising Again Private wages & salary disbursements; billions US$, annual rate

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Sources: Federal Reserve and ATA Household Net Worth Millions 1980 Q3: 2010

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Sources: Federal Reserve and ATA Household Debt Service Ratio Percentage of Disposable Personal Income 1980 Q3 2010

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Sources: Census Bureau & ATA Housing Starts Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates 2000-2013 Forecast (annual average) Millions 16% 61% 31%

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Sources: Census Bureau and ATA Total Business Inventories-to-Sales Ratio (Includes retail, wholesale, and manufacturing; Through December 2010)

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Sources: Department of Labor and ATA Retail Inflation Measures Seasonally Adjusted; Year-over-Year Percent Change Through January 2011 Inflation is not a near-term threat, but something to watch in the longer-run.

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Sources: Federal Reserve and ATA Businesses are Cash Rich Percentage of Liquid Assets to Total Assets Liquid Assets Millions 1952 Q3 2010

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(Real GDP, Annual percent change, 2005 dollars) Real Gross Domestic Product Sources: IHS Global Insight and ATA 2008 2011 Long-run Average (3%) Annual GDP Numbers 2009:-2.6% 2010:+2.9% 2011:+3.2% 2012:+2.9%

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Source: Wall Street Journal Oil Prices (WTI) Price Per Barrel

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Source: Energy Information Administration On-Highway Diesel Prices Price Per Gallon

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Sources: ATA, EIA, and Highway Statistics Industry Diesel Expense Forecasts are derived from EIA diesel price forecasts and ATA truck freight volume forecasts. Forecast Billions

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Motor Carrier Trends Demand Demand

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Source: ATAs Monthly Truck Tonnage Report For-Hire Truck Tonnage Annual Percent Change Includes TL & LTL

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Source: ATAs Monthly Truck Tonnage Report ATAs For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100 Through January2011

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Source: ATAs Trucking Activity Report For-Hire TL Loads Annual Percent Change

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Source: ATAs Trucking Activity Report ATAs For-Hire TL Loads Index Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100 Through December 2010

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Source: ATAs Trucking Activity Report Loads by TL Sector 2010 Compared with 2009

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ATAs For-Hire TL & LTL Revenue Indexes Seasonally Adjusted; 2000 = 100 Through December 2010 TL average Revenue/Mile Source: ATAs Trucking Activity Report LTL average Revenue/Ton

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Motor Carrier Trends Supply Capacity Additions or Replacements?

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Sources: ACT Research & ATA U.S. Class 8 Trucks Average Age 1995-2010

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Source: Wards U.S. Class 8 Truck Sales Monthly Retail Sales; Through January 2011 Annual Figures 2005:253k 2006:284k 2007:151k 2008:133k 2009: 95k 2010:106k 2011:111k (rate from Jan only)

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Source: ATA Illustration: Trade Cycle of a 2005 OTR Tractor Normal Mileage vs Actual and Projected Mileage Trade Point: 550,000 Miles Normal Mileage: 115,000/Year Actual Mileage based on average miles per truck per year from fleet surveys. Projected Mileage: 100,000 in 2010 and 115,000 in 2011.

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Sources: TMC, Motor Carrier Annual Reports, and ATA Maintenance Costs per Mile

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Financing Required $45,000 Used Truck Value $50,000 New Truck Price $95,000 Financing Required $75,000 Used Truck Value $45,000 New Truck Price $120,000 Truck Purchase Decision This example is for illustration purposes only. Actual numbers may vary. 20062010

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Source: Avondale Partners, LLC Trucking Failures Failures only includes fleets with at least five trucks

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Source: ATA For-Hire TL Supply vs Demand 2005 = 100 Through December 2010 TL Loads Index TL Tractor Count Index Oversupply

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Tires Regulations Equipment Fuel Driver Wages Cost Pressures from All Directions

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Thanks!Questions?