DudLess deja vu’s the Derby card(Long two Jorge Navarro entrants @ 14-1 and 13-1)
DudLess
May 2016
Recitals – Race 7 – 2016 Churchill Downs Stakes
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Whereas,
9 thoroughbreds competed in the 2016 Churchill Downs Stakes, a Grade II stakes
race on the Kentucky Derby undercard
2016 Churchill Downs Stakes - Final odds
Horse # Horse name Post-takeout implied win %
1 Kobe's Back 3.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 4.6 21.7%
2 Squadron A 39.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 40.1 2.5%
3 Calculator 6.2 to 1.0 1.0 in 7.2 13.9%
4 Barbados 15.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 16.1 6.2%
5 Limousine Liberal 4.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 5.7 17.5%
6 Speightster 3.0 to 1.0 1.0 in 4.0 25.0%
7 Holy Boss 8.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 9.4 10.6%
8 Salutos Amigos 4.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 5.6 17.9%
9 Catalina Red 14.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 15.1 6.6%
Source: Equibase Check 122.0%
Takeout
18.0%
Horse # Horse name Bettor-implied win probability
1 Kobe's Back 4.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 5.6 17.8%
2 Squadron A 47.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 48.9 2.0%
3 Calculator 7.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 8.8 11.4%
4 Barbados 18.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 19.6 5.1%
5 Limousine Liberal 6.0 to 1.0 1.0 in 7.0 14.4%
6 Speightster 3.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 4.9 20.5%
7 Holy Boss 10.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 11.5 8.7%
8 Salutos Amigos 5.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 6.8 14.6%
9 Catalina Red 17.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 18.4 5.4%
Source: Equibase, analyst adjustments Check 100.0%
Actual odds on win bet Implied win probability
0% takeout odds on win bet Implied win probability
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Whereas,
One horse, Catalina Red (9), was entered by trainer Jorge Navarro, whose 2016
win rate of 31% was higher than every trainer with entrants in the race and all but
two trainers in the United States with more than 100 starts
While it’s true trainers and
jockeys don’t win races, we
do put horses in positions to
win races. In that regard, I’ve
been among the very best
trainers in the US in 2016.
Source: Equibase (link)
https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=264779https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=264779https://www.equibase.com/stats/View.cfm?tf=year&tb=trainer&rbt=TB
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Whereas,
Bettors bid up Catalina Red’s win bet odds to 14-1 (17-1 pre-takeout), which
implied the Navarro-entered horse had a far lower ~5% chance to win, meaning
bettors collectively believed clearly superior horses to Catalina Red were entered
Horse # Horse name Bettor-implied win probability
6 Speightster 3.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 4.9 20.5%
1 Kobe's Back 4.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 5.6 17.8%
8 Salutos Amigos 5.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 6.8 14.6%
5 Limousine Liberal 6.0 to 1.0 1.0 in 7.0 14.4%
3 Calculator 7.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 8.8 11.4%
7 Holy Boss 10.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 11.5 8.7%
9 Catalina Red 17.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 18.4 5.4%
4 Barbados 18.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 19.6 5.1%
2 Squadron A 47.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 48.9 2.0%
Source: Equibase, analyst adjustments Check 100.0%
0% takeout odds on win bet Implied win probability
Of every 100 bananas bet to
win, Catalina Red took only 5.4.
Prior to race start, bettors
believed 6 other horses had a
better chance to win.
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Whereas,
None of the other horses’ past performances suggested they were clearly superior
to Catalina Red
Bettors likely avoided Catalina Red because he had earned the lowest top
Beyer Speed Figure in the field. However, he’d earned it in a win after an
extended layoff, was racing for a 31% trainer for the first time since being
transferred from a 13% trainer and had J. Castellano up (1 of 3 jockeys in the
race with 20%+ win rates). Could a warmup race, the Navarro effect, an elite
jockey and a demonstrated will to win bridge a 2-4 length speed gap?
Horse # Horse namePost-takeout
win bet final odds
Pre-takout
win bet final odds
Bettor-implied win
probability
Highest 2016
Beyer Speed Figure Will to win?* Potential winner?
6 Speightster 3.0 3.9 20.5% NA, last start Jul. 2015Questionable, won last 3 starts but no
starts in 10 months due to injury?
1 Kobe's Back 3.6 4.6 17.8% 101 Yes, won last 2 starts this year Yes
8 Salutos Amigos 4.6 5.8 14.6% 104 Yes, won last 2 starts this year Yes
5 Limousine Liberal 4.7 6.0 14.4% 100Yes, won last start this year in first start
as 4-year old after 5-month layoffYes
3 Calculator 6.2 7.8 11.4% 102Questionable, 1 of 3 this year but 0 for 2
in last 2 startsYes
7 Holy Boss 8.4 10.5 8.7% 100No, had not won in 4 starts run over the
last 9 months?
9 Catalina Red 14.1 17.4 5.4% 96Yes, won last start this year in first start
as 4-year old after 6-month layoffYes
4 Barbados 15.1 18.6 5.1% 100Questionable, 1 of 2 this year but win
came in a slow race (88 BSF)?
2 Squadron A 39.1 47.9 2.0% 96 No, no wins 2015-2016 No
Source: Equibase, Daily Racing Form
*Some fast horses seemingly lack the will to run in front of other horses.
Considering the foregoing
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
DudLess questions the consensus
The 5 banana win bet paid 75.5
bananas (30.2 / 2 x 5) and the 5
banana place bet paid 34.5 bananas
(13.8 / 2 x 5)
Catalina Red (9)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uqejqlQaHghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uqejqlQaHg
Outstanding question
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Bet every Navarro entrant at 10-to-1 odds or higher?
Not exactly sure
This 12 banana exacta bet won if
any combination of the 3,4,8 or 9
horses finished 1st and 2nd.
1 banana on the winning
combination paid 107.5 bananas.
Catalina Red (9)Calculator (3)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uqejqlQaHghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uqejqlQaHg
Recitals – Race 10 – 2016 Pat Day Mile Stakes
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Whereas,
14 thoroughbreds competed in the 2016 Pat Day Mile Stakes, a Grade III stakes
race on the Kentucky Derby undercard
2016 Pat Day Mile Stakes - Final odds
Horse # Horse name Post-takeout implied win %
1 Discreetness 28.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 29.5 3.4%
2 Ralis 30.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 31.6 3.2%
3 Torrontes 61.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 62.9 1.6%
4 Gray Sky 29.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 30.8 3.2%
5 Imperial Hint 7.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 8.6 11.6%
6 Sharp Azteca 13.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 14.1 7.1%
7 Forevamo 8.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 9.5 10.5%
8 American Dubai 61.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 62.8 1.6%
9 Fellowship 6.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 7.9 12.7%
10 Cocked and Loaded 7.2 to 1.0 1.0 in 8.2 12.2%
11 American Freedom 1.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 2.4 41.7%
12 Unbridled Outlaw 17.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 18.4 5.4%
13 Star Hill 14.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 15.7 6.4%
14 Lookin for a Kiss 55.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 56.7 1.8%
Source: Equibase Check 122.3%
Takeout
18.2%
Horse # Horse name Bettor-implied win probability
1 Discreetness 35.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 36.1 2.8%
2 Ralis 37.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 38.7 2.6%
3 Torrontes 75.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 76.9 1.3%
4 Gray Sky 36.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 37.7 2.7%
5 Imperial Hint 9.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 10.5 9.5%
6 Sharp Azteca 16.2 to 1.0 1.0 in 17.2 5.8%
7 Forevamo 10.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 11.6 8.6%
8 American Dubai 75.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 76.8 1.3%
9 Fellowship 8.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 9.7 10.3%
10 Cocked and Loaded 9.0 to 1.0 1.0 in 10.0 10.0%
11 American Freedom 1.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 2.9 34.1%
12 Unbridled Outlaw 21.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 22.5 4.4%
13 Star Hill 18.2 to 1.0 1.0 in 19.2 5.2%
14 Lookin for a Kiss 68.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 69.4 1.4%
Source: Equibase, analyst adjustments Check 100.0%
Actual odds on win bet Implied win probability
0% takeout odds on win bet Implied win probability
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Whereas,
One horse, Sharp Azteca (6), was entered by trainer Jorge Navarro, whose 2016
win rate of 31% was higher than every other trainer with entrants in the race and all
but two trainers in the United States with more than 100 starts
While it’s true trainers and
jockeys don’t win races, we
do put horses in positions to
win races. In that regard, I’ve
been among the very best
trainers in the US in 2016.
Source: Equibase (link)
https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=264779https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=264779https://www.equibase.com/stats/View.cfm?tf=year&tb=trainer&rbt=TB
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Whereas,
Bettors bid up Sharp Azteca’s win bet odds to 13-1 (16-1 pre-takeout), which
implied the Navarro-entered horse had a far lower ~6% chance to win, meaning
bettors collectively believed clearly superior horses to Sharp Azteca were entered
Horse # Horse name Bettor-implied win probability
11 American Freedom 1.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 2.9 34.1%
9 Fellowship 8.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 9.7 10.3%
10 Cocked and Loaded 9.0 to 1.0 1.0 in 10.0 10.0%
5 Imperial Hint 9.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 10.5 9.5%
7 Forevamo 10.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 11.6 8.6%
6 Sharp Azteca 16.2 to 1.0 1.0 in 17.2 5.8%
13 Star Hill 18.2 to 1.0 1.0 in 19.2 5.2%
12 Unbridled Outlaw 21.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 22.5 4.4%
1 Discreetness 35.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 36.1 2.8%
4 Gray Sky 36.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 37.7 2.7%
2 Ralis 37.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 38.7 2.6%
14 Lookin for a Kiss 68.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 69.4 1.4%
8 American Dubai 75.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 76.8 1.3%
3 Torrontes 75.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 76.9 1.3%
Source: Equibase, analyst adjustments Check 100.0%
0% takeout odds on win bet Implied win probability
Of every 100 bananas bet to win,
Sharp Azteca took only 5.8. Prior
to race start, bettors believed 5
other horses had a better chance
to win, with 1 of those 5
overwhelmingly favored.
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Whereas,
None of the other horses’ past performances suggested they were clearly superior
to Sharp Azteca
American Freedom’s speed was notable but a win bet was overvalued at 1.4-to-1 (favorites win 1 in 3
races, so should not be bet below 2-to-1 odds). Imperial Hint and Sharp Azteca had lower Beyer Speed
Figures but had earned them in easy wins, which suggested they may run faster if put to a tougher test.
Horse # Horse namePost-takeout
win bet final odds
Pre-takout
win bet final odds
Bettor-implied win
probability
Highest 2016
Beyer Speed Figure Will to win?* Potential winner?
11 American Freedom 1.4 1.9 34.1% 98 Yes, won only start Yes
9 Fellowship 6.9 8.7 10.3% 87 No, 2 of 11 lifetime, lost last 6 starts ?
10 Cocked and Loaded 7.2 9.0 10.0% 82Questionable, 3rd in only start this year,
last win 7 months and 3 starts backNo
5 Imperial Hint 7.6 9.5 9.5% 93Yes, won last 2 starts this year by 6 3/4 and
4 1/4 lengthsYes
7 Forevamo 8.5 10.6 8.6% 89No, 1 of 7 lifetime, placed in 2 of last 4
starts but had not won in ~5 months ?
6 Sharp Azteca 13.1 16.2 5.8% 88Yes, won last 2 starts this year by 7 1/2 and
4 lengthsYes
13 Star Hill 14.7 18.2 5.2% 88Questionable, won 3 months and 3 starts
back, finished 3rd and 5th in last 2?
12 Unbridled Outlaw 17.4 21.5 4.4% 88 No, 1 of 6 lifetime, lost last 4 starts No
1 Discreetness 28.5 35.1 2.8% 86Questionable, won 2 by a neck and a nose
4 months back, lost last 3 badlyNo
4 Gray Sky 29.8 36.7 2.7% 84 No, 1 of 9 lifetime, lost last 4 starts No
2 Ralis 30.6 37.7 2.6% 80 No, 2 of 9 lifetime, lost last 4 badly No
14 Lookin for a Kiss 55.7 68.4 1.4% 77Questionable, 1 of 3 lifetime, lost last
start badly after drop to low win % trainerNo
8 American Dubai 61.8 75.8 1.3% 88No, 1 of 3 lifetime, lost last 4 starts with
regression, lost last 2 by 13+ lengthsNo
3 Torrontes 61.9 75.9 1.3% 83Questionable, 2 of 6 lifetime, won last
start, lost 2 previous starts badlyNo
Source: Equibase, Daily Racing Form
*Some fast horses seemingly lack the will to run in front of other horses.
Considering the foregoing
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
DudLess questions the consensus
The 10 banana win bet paid 141
bananas (28.2 x 5) and the 10
banana place bet paid 66 bananas
(13.2 x 5).
Sharp Azteca (6)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y0lWTHuJmwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y0lWTHuJmw
Outstanding question
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
Bet every Navarro entrant at 10-to-1 odds or higher?
Not exactly sure
Sharp Azteca (6)Forevamo (7)
This 10 banana exacta bet won if
the 5 or 6 horse finished 1st and
any of the 5,6,7,11,12 or 13 horses
finished 2nd. 1 banana on the
winning combination paid 94.6
bananas.
This 12 banana exacta bet won if
any combination of the 5,6 or 7
horses finished 1st and 2nd.
2 bananas on the winning
combination paid 189.2 bananas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y0lWTHuJmwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y0lWTHuJmw
sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt
DudLess
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