DudLess deja vu’s the Derby cardd284f45nftegze.cloudfront.net/BenetBennett/DudLess deja vus the...

DudLess deja vu’s the Derby card(Long two Jorge Navarro entrants @ 14-1 and 13-1)

DudLess

May 2016

Recitals – Race 7 – 2016 Churchill Downs Stakes

sholker [printed: August 29, 2007 8:03 AM] [saved: August 29, 2007 8:19 AM] C:\Documents and Settings\sholker\Desktop\Sholk\Presentation\Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt

Whereas,

9 thoroughbreds competed in the 2016 Churchill Downs Stakes, a Grade II stakes

race on the Kentucky Derby undercard

2016 Churchill Downs Stakes - Final odds

Horse # Horse name Post-takeout implied win %

1 Kobe's Back 3.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 4.6 21.7%

2 Squadron A 39.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 40.1 2.5%

3 Calculator 6.2 to 1.0 1.0 in 7.2 13.9%

4 Barbados 15.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 16.1 6.2%

5 Limousine Liberal 4.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 5.7 17.5%

6 Speightster 3.0 to 1.0 1.0 in 4.0 25.0%

7 Holy Boss 8.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 9.4 10.6%

8 Salutos Amigos 4.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 5.6 17.9%

9 Catalina Red 14.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 15.1 6.6%

Source: Equibase Check 122.0%

Takeout

18.0%

Horse # Horse name Bettor-implied win probability

1 Kobe's Back 4.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 5.6 17.8%

2 Squadron A 47.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 48.9 2.0%

3 Calculator 7.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 8.8 11.4%

4 Barbados 18.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 19.6 5.1%



7 Holy Boss 10.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 11.5 8.7%



Source: Equibase, analyst adjustments Check 100.0%

Actual odds on win bet Implied win probability

0% takeout odds on win bet Implied win probability


Whereas,

One horse, Catalina Red (9), was entered by trainer Jorge Navarro, whose 2016

win rate of 31% was higher than every trainer with entrants in the race and all but

two trainers in the United States with more than 100 starts

While it’s true trainers and

jockeys don’t win races, we

do put horses in positions to

win races. In that regard, I’ve

been among the very best

trainers in the US in 2016.

Source: Equibase (link)

https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=264779https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=264779https://www.equibase.com/stats/View.cfm?tf=year&tb=trainer&rbt=TB


Whereas,

Bettors bid up Catalina Red’s win bet odds to 14-1 (17-1 pre-takeout), which

implied the Navarro-entered horse had a far lower ~5% chance to win, meaning

bettors collectively believed clearly superior horses to Catalina Red were entered



1 Kobe's Back 4.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 5.6 17.8%



3 Calculator 7.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 8.8 11.4%

7 Holy Boss 10.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 11.5 8.7%


4 Barbados 18.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 19.6 5.1%

2 Squadron A 47.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 48.9 2.0%



Of every 100 bananas bet to

win, Catalina Red took only 5.4.

Prior to race start, bettors

believed 6 other horses had a

better chance to win.


Whereas,

None of the other horses’ past performances suggested they were clearly superior

to Catalina Red

Bettors likely avoided Catalina Red because he had earned the lowest top

Beyer Speed Figure in the field. However, he’d earned it in a win after an

extended layoff, was racing for a 31% trainer for the first time since being

transferred from a 13% trainer and had J. Castellano up (1 of 3 jockeys in the

race with 20%+ win rates). Could a warmup race, the Navarro effect, an elite

jockey and a demonstrated will to win bridge a 2-4 length speed gap?

Horse # Horse namePost-takeout

win bet final odds

Pre-takout

win bet final odds

Bettor-implied win

probability

Highest 2016

Beyer Speed Figure Will to win?* Potential winner?

6 Speightster 3.0 3.9 20.5% NA, last start Jul. 2015Questionable, won last 3 starts but no

starts in 10 months due to injury?

1 Kobe's Back 3.6 4.6 17.8% 101 Yes, won last 2 starts this year Yes

8 Salutos Amigos 4.6 5.8 14.6% 104 Yes, won last 2 starts this year Yes

5 Limousine Liberal 4.7 6.0 14.4% 100Yes, won last start this year in first start

as 4-year old after 5-month layoffYes

3 Calculator 6.2 7.8 11.4% 102Questionable, 1 of 3 this year but 0 for 2

in last 2 startsYes

7 Holy Boss 8.4 10.5 8.7% 100No, had not won in 4 starts run over the

last 9 months?

9 Catalina Red 14.1 17.4 5.4% 96Yes, won last start this year in first start

as 4-year old after 6-month layoffYes

4 Barbados 15.1 18.6 5.1% 100Questionable, 1 of 2 this year but win

came in a slow race (88 BSF)?

2 Squadron A 39.1 47.9 2.0% 96 No, no wins 2015-2016 No

Source: Equibase, Daily Racing Form

*Some fast horses seemingly lack the will to run in front of other horses.

Considering the foregoing


DudLess questions the consensus

The 5 banana win bet paid 75.5

bananas (30.2 / 2 x 5) and the 5

banana place bet paid 34.5 bananas

(13.8 / 2 x 5)

Catalina Red (9)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uqejqlQaHghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uqejqlQaHg

Outstanding question


Bet every Navarro entrant at 10-to-1 odds or higher?

Not exactly sure

This 12 banana exacta bet won if

any combination of the 3,4,8 or 9

horses finished 1st and 2nd.

1 banana on the winning

combination paid 107.5 bananas.

Catalina Red (9)Calculator (3)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uqejqlQaHghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uqejqlQaHg

Recitals – Race 10 – 2016 Pat Day Mile Stakes


Whereas,

14 thoroughbreds competed in the 2016 Pat Day Mile Stakes, a Grade III stakes

race on the Kentucky Derby undercard

2016 Pat Day Mile Stakes - Final odds

Horse # Horse name Post-takeout implied win %

1 Discreetness 28.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 29.5 3.4%

2 Ralis 30.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 31.6 3.2%

3 Torrontes 61.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 62.9 1.6%

4 Gray Sky 29.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 30.8 3.2%

5 Imperial Hint 7.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 8.6 11.6%

6 Sharp Azteca 13.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 14.1 7.1%

7 Forevamo 8.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 9.5 10.5%

8 American Dubai 61.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 62.8 1.6%

9 Fellowship 6.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 7.9 12.7%

10 Cocked and Loaded 7.2 to 1.0 1.0 in 8.2 12.2%

11 American Freedom 1.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 2.4 41.7%

12 Unbridled Outlaw 17.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 18.4 5.4%

13 Star Hill 14.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 15.7 6.4%

14 Lookin for a Kiss 55.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 56.7 1.8%

Source: Equibase Check 122.3%

Takeout

18.2%



2 Ralis 37.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 38.7 2.6%

3 Torrontes 75.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 76.9 1.3%

4 Gray Sky 36.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 37.7 2.7%



7 Forevamo 10.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 11.6 8.6%


9 Fellowship 8.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 9.7 10.3%




13 Star Hill 18.2 to 1.0 1.0 in 19.2 5.2%



Actual odds on win bet Implied win probability



Whereas,

One horse, Sharp Azteca (6), was entered by trainer Jorge Navarro, whose 2016

win rate of 31% was higher than every other trainer with entrants in the race and all

but two trainers in the United States with more than 100 starts

While it’s true trainers and

jockeys don’t win races, we

do put horses in positions to

win races. In that regard, I’ve

been among the very best

trainers in the US in 2016.

Source: Equibase (link)

https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=264779https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=People&searchType=T&eID=264779https://www.equibase.com/stats/View.cfm?tf=year&tb=trainer&rbt=TB


Whereas,

Bettors bid up Sharp Azteca’s win bet odds to 13-1 (16-1 pre-takeout), which

implied the Navarro-entered horse had a far lower ~6% chance to win, meaning

bettors collectively believed clearly superior horses to Sharp Azteca were entered



9 Fellowship 8.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 9.7 10.3%



7 Forevamo 10.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 11.6 8.6%


13 Star Hill 18.2 to 1.0 1.0 in 19.2 5.2%



4 Gray Sky 36.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 37.7 2.7%

2 Ralis 37.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 38.7 2.6%



3 Torrontes 75.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 76.9 1.3%



Of every 100 bananas bet to win,

Sharp Azteca took only 5.8. Prior

to race start, bettors believed 5

other horses had a better chance

to win, with 1 of those 5

overwhelmingly favored.


Whereas,

None of the other horses’ past performances suggested they were clearly superior

to Sharp Azteca

American Freedom’s speed was notable but a win bet was overvalued at 1.4-to-1 (favorites win 1 in 3

races, so should not be bet below 2-to-1 odds). Imperial Hint and Sharp Azteca had lower Beyer Speed

Figures but had earned them in easy wins, which suggested they may run faster if put to a tougher test.

Horse # Horse namePost-takeout

win bet final odds

Pre-takout

win bet final odds

Bettor-implied win

probability

Highest 2016

Beyer Speed Figure Will to win?* Potential winner?

11 American Freedom 1.4 1.9 34.1% 98 Yes, won only start Yes

9 Fellowship 6.9 8.7 10.3% 87 No, 2 of 11 lifetime, lost last 6 starts ?

10 Cocked and Loaded 7.2 9.0 10.0% 82Questionable, 3rd in only start this year,

last win 7 months and 3 starts backNo

5 Imperial Hint 7.6 9.5 9.5% 93Yes, won last 2 starts this year by 6 3/4 and

4 1/4 lengthsYes

7 Forevamo 8.5 10.6 8.6% 89No, 1 of 7 lifetime, placed in 2 of last 4

starts but had not won in ~5 months ?

6 Sharp Azteca 13.1 16.2 5.8% 88Yes, won last 2 starts this year by 7 1/2 and

4 lengthsYes

13 Star Hill 14.7 18.2 5.2% 88Questionable, won 3 months and 3 starts

back, finished 3rd and 5th in last 2?

12 Unbridled Outlaw 17.4 21.5 4.4% 88 No, 1 of 6 lifetime, lost last 4 starts No

1 Discreetness 28.5 35.1 2.8% 86Questionable, won 2 by a neck and a nose

4 months back, lost last 3 badlyNo

4 Gray Sky 29.8 36.7 2.7% 84 No, 1 of 9 lifetime, lost last 4 starts No

2 Ralis 30.6 37.7 2.6% 80 No, 2 of 9 lifetime, lost last 4 badly No

14 Lookin for a Kiss 55.7 68.4 1.4% 77Questionable, 1 of 3 lifetime, lost last

start badly after drop to low win % trainerNo

8 American Dubai 61.8 75.8 1.3% 88No, 1 of 3 lifetime, lost last 4 starts with

regression, lost last 2 by 13+ lengthsNo

3 Torrontes 61.9 75.9 1.3% 83Questionable, 2 of 6 lifetime, won last

start, lost 2 previous starts badlyNo

Source: Equibase, Daily Racing Form

*Some fast horses seemingly lack the will to run in front of other horses.

Considering the foregoing


DudLess questions the consensus

The 10 banana win bet paid 141

bananas (28.2 x 5) and the 10

banana place bet paid 66 bananas

(13.2 x 5).

Sharp Azteca (6)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y0lWTHuJmwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y0lWTHuJmw

Outstanding question


Bet every Navarro entrant at 10-to-1 odds or higher?

Not exactly sure

Sharp Azteca (6)Forevamo (7)


the 5 or 6 horse finished 1st and

any of the 5,6,7,11,12 or 13 horses

finished 2nd. 1 banana on the

winning combination paid 94.6

bananas.


any combination of the 5,6 or 7

horses finished 1st and 2nd.

2 bananas on the winning

combination paid 189.2 bananas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y0lWTHuJmwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y0lWTHuJmw


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