1 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
Don’t believe everything you read in the media
about the Vietnam Property Market
Presented by: Mr. Marc Townsend,
Managing Director, CBRE Vietnam
19th January 2017
HO CHI MINH CITY
2 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
REAL ESTATE DASHBOARD
(*) Current lending rate is the average lending rate surveyed at ten banks, and only applicable for home loan. However, the back-dated numbers were the average rate
announced publicly at that point of time, applied for all sectors and all banks. The average lending rate is for reference only.
(**) Deposit rate is the average deposit rate from a sample comprised of ten banks, in which the rates are announced publicly on their websites and can be tracked backwards.
ECONOMIC
INDICATORS 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current
CPI (%) y-o-y 1.8 0.6 1.7 1.9 4.5 4.7
Trade balance
(US$, bil) (1.1) (0.6) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (0.3)
Retail & services
Turnover (VND, tril) 273.3 294.7 295.8 294.4 302.9 320.2
BANKING & FINANCE 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current
VN-Index 576.1 545.3 652.2 682.3 663.5 681.3
USD/VND (inter-bank) 21,458 21,881 21,862 22,156 22,156 22,161
Local gold (VND mil/tael) 35.4 32.8 36.8 35.8 36.1 36.7
Lending Rate (%)* 8.8% 7.6% 7.0% 7.3% 7.7% 8.4%
Deposit rate (%)**
(1-year term) 6.4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.7% 6.5% 6.6%
REAL ESTATE INDEX 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current
Real Estate Holding &
Development Listed
Companies
48.60 45.22 51.00 47.24 45.63 46.55
Real Estate Services
Listed Companies 52.8 41.3 28.3 30.89 26.98 27.06
Source: Stockbiz, Jan 2017
Source: GSO, Dec, 2016
Source: GSO, SBV, SJC & HSX, Jan, 2017
NEW LAUNCHES 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current
HCMC New launches
(unit) 70,902 37,278 21,088 11,926 6,272 3,957
HN New launches (unit) 45,921 25,485 17,460 10,409 5,712 2,712
Source: CBRE, Dec 2016
3 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
BCI NUMBERS
All Future
Projects
(2017-2030)
HCMC Hanoi Da
Nang
Can
Tho
Nha
Trang
Vung
Tau
Hai
Phong
Office 253 247 53 33 20 36 47
Retail 164 132 66 5 22 11 11
Hospitality
and SA 60 31 76 4 56 17 6
Residential 404 188 42 13 13 22 10
Total 881 598 237 55 111 86 74
Projects
Under
Construction
HCMC Hanoi Da
Nang
Can
Tho
Nha
Trang
Vung
Tau
Hai
Phong
Office 142 161 27 20 13 16 29
Retail 100 81 47 2 14 6 8
Hospitality
and SA 35 16 55 4 35 10 3
Residential 286 105 22 8 23 13 8
Total 563 363 151 34 85 45 48
Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017. Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017.
Projects under construction, y-o-y change All future projects (2016 – 2030), y-o-y change
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
HCMC Hanoi DaNang
CanTho
KhanhHoa
VungTau
HaiPhong
Perc
en
tag
e c
han
ge
2017 YTD vs 2016 2016 vs 2015
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
HCMC Hanoi DaNang
CanTho
KhanhHoa
VungTau
HaiPhong
Perc
en
tag
e c
han
ge
2017 YTD vs 2016 2016 vs 2015
4 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Challenges from drought, flood and others
More than 200 tons of died fish
collected in Westlake, Hanoi
5 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
URBAN MIGRATION AND ITS NET EFFECT
159,501 Passenger Cars Sold in 2016
(up 36% y-o-y)
3,121,023 Motorbikes Sold in 2016
(up 9.5% y-o-y)
8,000 motorbikes/day
6 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
HCMC METRO LINES PLAN
Line Route Length
1 Ben Thanh – Suoi Tien 19.7 km
2 An Suong – Cat Lai 11.3 km
3 Tan Kien – Hiep Binh Phuoc 31.9km
4 Nguyen Van Linh – Thanh
Xuan
41.2 km
5 Saigon Bridge – Can Giuoc
Coach Station
23.4 km
6 Ba Queo – Phu Lam
Intersection
6.4 km
SUOI TIEN
NGUYEN VAN LINH
AN SUONG
CAT LAI
PHU LAM
TAN KIEN
HIEP BINH PHUOC
BA QUEO
6
CAN GIUOC
5
SAI GON BRIDGE
THANH XUAN
1
2
2
4
3
3
BEN THANH HUB
Under Construction Metro Lines
Under Planning Metro
Lines
2 km Scale:
Metro Line no. 1 is under construction to
be completed by 2018.
Metro Line no. 2 is now pending
Other lines are still calling for
investments.
Current situation
Funding Process
The city also plans three monorail routes
totaling 37km by 2030.
Future Plan
7 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
MEANWHILE IN BANGKOK
8 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
Increasing tourist arrivals, new international flights open
HOSPITALITY MARKET
Lead the top guest
arrivals (2.7 mil arrivals in 2016)
Number of Tourist Arrivals in 2016 (millions)
Tourists to Ba Na Hill (Da Nang) in 2016
90% Local
4% South Korean
3% Chinese
3% Other countries
(2 million visits in total)
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
0
2
4
6
8
10
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Gro
wth
Rate
(%
)
Arr
ivals
(M
illio
n p
ers
ons)
International arrival Growth rate
9 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
Oversupply concern
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
Hot launches near Thu Thiem
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2015 2016Ne
w la
un
ch
su
pp
ly (
un
its)
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Foreign buyers at CBRE
147 deals closed from July 2015 up to December 2016
Some projects in Thao Dien already reached the 30%
threshold of foreign buyers
Main groups of foreign buyers in 2016:
Singapore: 18%
Japan/Hong Kong/Europe: 16% each
Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016
New launch supply (units)
10 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
PropTech, RETech, Co-working space
DISRUPTIVE TECH & ENTRENEURSHIP
11 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
THE MAIN NEW FOCUSES… ANYTHING BUT TPP
Forget TPP, The Focus is now on
RCEP
12 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
THE ONE BIG MANUFACTURER
Source: Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment.
US$ 36.4 billion
9.3% y-o-y
Top FDI Investors, US$ million, 2016
7,036
2,590
2,419
1,875
1,860
South Korea
Japan
Singapore
China
Taiwan
13 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
THAT ONE BIG DEVELOPER
14 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
2 completed, 4 under construction
HCMC 20 GOLDEN SITES
Source: CBRE Vietnam.
VINHOMES GOLDEN RIVER
UNION SQUARE
SAIGON MELINH TOWER
THE SPIRIT OF SAIGON
SJC
VINCOM CENTER DONG KHOI 3
16
7
2
1
9
20
5
17
4
6 13 8
18 19
12 14
15
11
15 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
Busy Construction Activity in District 1 and District 3
WALKABOUT IN HCMC
95 projects
found on 132 streets
in District 1 15 Cleared Sites
5 Public Projects
7 Hotels
6 Residential
2 Retail
33 Offices
45 projects
found on 24 streets
in District 3
18 Offices
2 SAs
2 Residential
8 Private Use
2 Hotels
10 Unknown
3 Others
Only 2 Grade A
16 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 Fortune Companies in Vietnam
218 companies in 2015 230 companies in 2016
Source: CBRE Vietnam.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Food
& D
rug
Sto
res
Tele
com
mun
ication
s
App
are
l
Tra
nspo
rtation
Chem
ical
Techn
olo
gy
Ene
rgy
Eng
inee
ring
& C
on
str
uctio
n
House
hold
pro
du
cts
Busin
ess S
erv
ice
Mo
tor
Ve
hic
les &
Pa
rts
Reta
iling
Wh
ole
sa
lers
Fin
ance
Health
Ca
re
Ind
ustr
ials
Food
, B
eve
rag
es &
To
ba
cco
Ho
tels
, R
esta
ura
nts
&…
Aeo
rosp
ace
s &
De
fen
se
Ma
teri
als
Me
dia
No. of com
panie
s
2015
2016
17 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
Weaker rental growth is expected
APAC OFFICE RENTAL
Tenant - Driven Landlord – Driven
Shanghai
Shenzhen
Brisbane
Guangzhou
Ho Chi Minh City
Mumbai
Beijing
Hong Kong
New Delhi
Auckland
Bangkok
Taipei
Tokyo
Melbourne
Sydney
Bangalore
Hanoi
Perth
Seoul
Singapore
Source: CBRE Research, January 2017.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sydney
Bangalo
re
Melb
ourn
e
Bangkok
Guangzhou
Gurg
aon
Auckla
nd
Tokyo
Brisbane
Mum
bai
Hanoi
Ho C
hi M
inh C
ity
Taip
ei
De
lhi
Seoul
Hong K
ong
Shanghai
Shenzhen
Pert
h
Beiji
ng
Jakart
a
Sin
gapore
Gra
de A
Eff
ecti
ve R
en
tal G
row
th
(%)
2016F 2017F
Bottoming
Out
Peaking
Source: CBRE Research, December 2016.
18 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
Yield spread (Office vs. 10-year Gov’ Bond) Continues at Low
levels
APAC CAPITAL MARKET
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Pe
rth
Ha
no
i
Brisb
an
e
Tokyo
Au
ckla
nd
Ho
Chi M
inh C
ity
Ba
ng
kok
Melb
ourn
e
Se
ou
l
Syd
ne
y
Mu
mb
ai
Ku
ala
Lum
pur
Taip
ei
Be
ijin
g
Sh
an
gh
ai
Ne
w D
elh
i
Gu
an
gzh
ou
Ba
ng
alo
re
Sin
ga
po
re
Sh
en
zhe
n
Hong K
ong
Off
ice Y
ield
Sp
read
Yield spread narrowed
to
100 bps or below
Source: CBRE Research, December 2016.
Ten Year High
2017F
Ten Year Low
19 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
A YEAR OF M&A
Source: RCA.
International Centre Keppel Land Ltd.
►►VinaCapital
@ US$ 13.8 mil.
Office
Hanoi
20 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM
Growing Hospitality Market
Issuance of 06/2016/NHNN Circular
The end of 30.000 billion VND package
Public announcement of mortgaged projects
Name projects that are unqualified for Fire Safety
Active M&A market
Trend of “green” in buildings development
The growth of affordable segment
Renovation of old apartments
The entrance of non-real estate players
TOP 10 REAL ESTATE STORIES
All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.
For more information regarding this presentation please contact: CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting T +84 8 3824 6125
F +84 8 3823 8418
Email: [email protected]
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