HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2014 - CBRE Vietnam€¦ · HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2014 Thursday, ... 9...

HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2014

Thursday, October 09, 2014

2 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

9M 2014 9M 2013 Y-o-Y

Real GDP growth rate (%) 5.6% 5.1%

CPI (% y-o-y, e-o-p) 4.6% 6.3%

Exchange rate (USD/VND, e-o-p) 21,246 21,246 ↔

Export (% growth y-o-y) 14.1% 15.7%

Import (% growth y-o-y) 11.1% 15.5%

FDI Registered (US$ Billion) 11.2 15.0 FDI Implemented (US$ Million) 8.9 9.3 International Tourist Arrivals (% growth y-o-y) 10.4% 9.9% Retail and Services Turnover (% growth y-o-y) 11.1% 12.5%

FDI: Foreign Direct Investment

Y-o-Y: year on year; Q-o-Q: quarter on quarter

E-o-p: end of period

Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office


MONEY FLOWS INTO REALTY Asian investors are still keen

Real Estate Ranked Second in terms of FDI, 9M 2014

Projects Location US$

million Investors

Smart

Complex

Thu Thiem,

HCMC 2,000

Lotte

(Korea)

Vinhomes

Tan Cang HCMC 1,500

VinGroup

(Vietnam)

Amata City

Long

Thanh

Long Thanh

District 530

Amata

(Thailand)

Hanoi

Westgate

Quoc Oai

District 140

Keppel Land

(Singapore)

Large Invested Real Estate Projects

Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment, September 2014. Source: Stockbiz, September 2014.

US$1.2

billion


VIETNAM STILL ON THE RADAR Focusing on market growth and business climate will be beneficial

Announced greenfield FDI in APAC 2013

Vietnam ranks 3rd in value and 2nd in percentage of GDP

Source: FDI Intelligence, Financial Times

US$1.2

billion

$64

$16

$15

$13

$10

$5

$5

China

India

Vietnam

Myanmar

Indonesia

Thailand

MalaysiaUnit: US$ billion

Motives for FDI, ranked by importance

45%

33%

21% 18%

8%

2%

Ma

rket g

row

th

Pro

xim

ity t

o m

ark

ets

Busin

ess c

lima

te

Skill

ed

work

er

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Low

co

sts

Vietnam’s strength Vietnam’s weakness


Sep

-13

Oct-

13

Nov-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Fe

b-1

4

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Apr-

14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Realty Stocks are Leading HCMC Market

RALLY STOCK MARKET

Source: Stockbiz, FPTS.

Realty stocks

VNIndex:514

VNIndex: 640

605


INTEREST RATES

Lower Lending Rates

Source: Smartfinance.

(*) Current lending rate is the average lending rate surveyed at ten banks, applied for home loan only. However, the back-dated numbers are the average rate

which was announced publicly at that point of time, applied for all sectors and all banks . The average lending rate is for reference only.

(**) Deposit rate is the average deposit rate of a sample of ten banks in which the rates are announced publicly on their websites and can be tracked backwards.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Ja

nF

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

nJu

lA

ug

Se

pO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

nF

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

nJu

lA

ug

Se

pO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

nF

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

nJu

lA

ug

Se

pO

ct

No

vD

ec

Ja

nF

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

nJu

lA

ug

2011 2012 2013 2014

Inte

rest ra

te

Deposit rate (1 year term) Lending rate

13%

7%

Some banks offers lending rates of 7.5%

- 8.5% for the first few months only.


CREDIT GROWTH

Reported Number in August 2014

Target for 2014

By the end of August 2014, credit to real estate market has

expanded 9.85% against the beginning of this year, higher

than the credit growth of the whole economy (5.82%) and

other sectors’.

Source: State Bank of Vietnam, August 2014.

“ Poor credit growth is more about sentiment than a real problem.

” Pham Hong Hai, Head of Global Banking at HSBC, HCMC *All the above articles were retrieved in September 2014.


Positively Correlated with the Stock Market

RECOVERING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

ANZ – Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence Index Expectation of Vietnam economic condition

Source: ANZ - Roy Morgan

Expectation of personal and family’s financial

condition


New modern highways

INFRASTRUCTURE

Hanoi – Lao Cai Highway

(245 km) Completed: September 2014

Modern highway, considerablely

shorten travelling time from Hanoi to

provinces in the North and Northwest

Hai Duong

Hanoi-Haiphong new

Highway (105 km) Total investment: US$1.1 billion.

Width: 100m, 2x4 lanes

Expected completion: end of 2015

Hanoi

Phu Tho

Yen Bai

Lao Cai

Sapa

Vinh Phuc

Hanoi

Hai Phong

National Road no. 5

(60km/h max speed)

Hanoi-Hai Phong new Highway

(120km/h max speed)

Dinh Vu Port

Nhat Tan Bridge Total investment: VND13.6 trillion.

Length: 8.3km

Expected completion: Q4 2014


Hanoi Metro lines have seen progress, but increased costs

INFRASTRUCTURE

Line Cat Linh – Ha Dong

(13.5km)

299/419 piers, 7/12 stations

completed

Investment costs rise to US$

891 mil (60% increase)

Expected completion: 2016.

Line Nhon – Hanoi Station

(12.5km)

Package 1: 4/6 piers

completed, Cau Giay cross

road is under construction

Package 4: 90% completed

1

2

3

1

2

3 4 4


Improved infrastructure paving the way for new investment in Eastern provinces

INFRASTRUCTURE IN EASTERN PROVINCES

New Hanoi – Hai Phong

National Highway • Investment capital: US$1.1 bil

• Progress: 65%

• Est. completion: end of 2015

Cat Bi Int’l Airport Upgrade • Investment capital: US$170 mil

• Est. completion: end of 2015

• Exp. Volume: 2 mil pessengers &

20,000 tons of cargo by 2015

• Exp. Routes to Japan, Korea, China,

Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand,

Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia

Lach Huyen Deep Water Port • Est. completion: end of 2016 (1st phase)

• To be the first deep water int’l port in the

North connecting directly to North America,

Europe, Japan, Korea.

o To facilitate port activities

o To attract further FDI into manufacturing and trading to Hai

Phong and Quang Ninh

o To ultimately boost economic growth in Hai Phong and Quang

Ninh

RESIDENTIAL MARKET Hanoi Q3 2014


Active launches even during

‘ghost month’

New launches from 6

projects (2,202 units)

Most re-launches in mid-

end segment

Most of the new launches

are from the low-end

segment

Active Launches and Re-launch Activities

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE

Diamond Blue – Thanh Xuan

(Foundation)

Green House – Long Bien

(Topped out)

HH4 Linh Dam – Hoang Mai

(Superstructure)

Green Star – Cau Giay

(Foundation)

Thang Long Victory – Hoai Duc

(Superstructure)

Mulberry Lane (Block B, D) – Ha Dong


A Busy ‘Ghost Month’ Quarter

RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Active launches and re-

launches from developers

Slight increase in launch

price and resale price

More promotion on offer

at bigger value

Deferred payment

becomes popular

Banks are busy competing

for mortgage customers

Buyers are busy shopping for

their dream houses too!

Launches Promotions Project Visiting

Mortgage Credit Growth


New Launches in Q3 2014


Green Star

North Tu Liem District, 864

units

by An Binh Star

@ from $993 psm

Green House

Long Bien District, 650 units

by HUD

@ from $941 – 1,035 psm

HH4 Linh Dam

Hoang Mai District, 700 units

by Dien Bien No. 1

@ from $659 psm

Thang Long Victory

Hoai Duc District, 440 units

by Phuc Ha JSC

@ from $552 psm

Mulberry Lane (Block B, D)

Ha Dong District, 1,478 units

by CapitaLand

@ from $1,400 psm

Diamond Blue

Thanh Xuan District, 440 units

by Traco & HT Land

@ from $800 psm


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Units

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Whole year

Launch supply in 9 months 2014 surpassed whole year 2013


Hanoi accumulated supply –

128,433 units

- Affordable: <US$800 psm

- Mid-end: US$800 – 1,500 psm

- High-end: US$1,500 - $2,500 psm

- Luxury: >US$2,500 psm

2%

16%

61%

21% Luxury

High-end

Mid-end

Low-end

Total new launches in 9 months 2014 surpassed

whole year 2013

(*) Accumulated since 1997

6,829

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.

YTD

New Launches by Year Supply by Segment


Projects more frequently advertised


Note: Selected newspapers include Dau Tu Bat Dong San, Thoi bao kinh te Vietnam, The gioi thong tin bat dong san, CafeF, Tap chi dau tu

bat dong san, Vietnamnet, Thi truong Bat dong san & Tai san, Nguoi dua tin


18%

16%

23%

7%

3%

13%

5%

6%

8%

Tu Liem

Thanh Xuan

Ha Dong

Cau Giay

Tay Ho

Hoang Mai

Hoai Duc

Hai Ba Trung

Others

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2013 2014

Nu

mb

er

of

ad

ve

rtis

em

en

t

Nu

mb

er

of

pro

jec

ts

Number of projects Number of Advertisements

Advertised by District, Hanoi, 2014 YTD Advertised by Quarter, Hanoi


Apsorption Rates Improving


-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Newlaunches

Sales

Luxury High-end Mid-end Low-end

Q3 2014 9 months 2014


Sales are catching up with

new launches with

absorption rates improving

for the quarter and YTD

Sales New

Launches Sales New

Launches

Sales Volume = 116%

New Launches

Sales Volume = 96%

New Launches


Improving Sales in Mid-end Segment


An estimate of 2,553 units sold in the quarter, up 61% y-o-y

Sales improves in mid-end segment.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012 2013 2014


Sold Units by Year and by Segment, Hanoi

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14

Nu

mb

er

of

un

its


Unsold stock, Hanoi

22,311



Primary prices slightly increase in the mid- and low-end projects


More promotions of bigger values are on offer

Increase in indicated tag prices seen in mid- and low-end projects Developers

appear more confident in market and project positioning

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

High-end Mid-end Low-end


Primary price


Increasing secondary prices with improvement in most segments


Increase in most segments, with strongest increase in mid-end segment (1.8% q-o-q)

Resale buyers are coming back to apartments with more reasonable prices

-10%

-6%

-2%

2%

6%

10%

14%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3/2014


Q-o-Q changes in Secondary prices


More Discerning Buyers


2009 -

2010

Buyers at Le Van Luong Residentials

At Thang Long No. 1

At CT5 Tan Trieu

At Starcity

2013 -

2014

At Hoa Binh Green City At Dang Xa

Hanoi

Calmer and more organized buyers at sales launches in 2013 – 2014

period


Loosen conditions of eligibility for

entitlement to VND30 trillion

package (Resolution No. 02)

Policy Update


Foreign ownership: Still far?

6% 7% 8%

10%

11%

13% 14%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14

Disbursement ratio Commitment ratio

Resolution No. 02

Source: Ministry of Construction

Disbursement rate of the VND30 trn package


Buy vs. Rent

RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Inde-pendent lifestyle

Greater privacy

Buying is preferred to renting

Com-munity

ties

Home-ownership

pride

Less free-dom

Less privacy

Rent perception

Insecurity and

instability

Rental is a wasted expense

“However, an emerging

group of young people

in both cities are joining

the rental market.”

Source: CBRE Special Report, Sep 2014


Renting to Become a Trend with Rapid Urbanization

RESIDENTIAL MARKET

HANOI

HCMC

“Housing demand is great in Vietnam,

especially in Hanoi and HCMC,

Vietnam’s biggest cities which are the

location for most of the country’s

economic activities and are

experiencing rapid urbanization.

“

URBANISATION

GROWTH

(population in million)

HOUSING DEMAND AVG. INCOME PER CAPITA

GROWTH

(2008-2012)

7.1 million persons

Population growth

2.0%*

7.8 million persons

Population growth

2.7%*

25.4 Year

2009

29.8 Year

2014

39.7 Year

2024

14.9 mil.

peopl

e 6.1 Mil.

emplo

yed

600,000** (155,800

household)

need

housing

14.15%

Min. 0% Max.

20%

HCMC

18.89%

Min. 0% Max.

20%

HANOI

Source: CBRE Special Report, Sep 2014

HANOI

“For buyers with over 56%

down-payment, buying is

better. For those with less,

renting is better.”

HCMC

“Buying is better than renting.”


Outlook for Hanoi


More stock expected to be released till year-end to capture slowly revived purchase momentum

More cash expected to flow to the market by year-end

Demand would increase for mid- and high-end projects as prices more reasonable, projects completed or close to completion

Rental market is expected to expand along with the urbanization process.

COMMERCIAL MARKETS Hanoi Q3 2014


Impact of the latest office entry

OFFICE

Source: CBRE

Grade A Asking Rents Grade A Supply by Location

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012 2013 2014

CBD Midtown West

Grade A rentals:

• Midtown: +12.79% - Lotte Center Hanoi’s

asking rent higher than Midtown average

• CBD: -4.36%

• West: -6.7%

Grade A supply:

• Marketwide: increased 10% q-o-q

• Midtown: increased 70% q-o-q

New project in the quarter: Lotte Center Hanoi (Grade A, Ba Dinh, 36,872 sqm NLA)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012 2013 2014

sq

m

CBD Midtown West


Vacancy Rate/ Asking Rent

OFFICE

Source: CBRE

AVERAGE ASKING RENT

(US$/sm/month) VACANCY RATE

(%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Va

ca

ncy r

ate

(%)

Grade A Grade B

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Ave

rag

e a

skin

g r

en

ts (

US

$/s

qm

/mth

)

Grade A Grade B

Vacancy rate of Grade A is now higher than that

of Grade B

Total vacant space is near 340,000 sqm, 60%

of which belongs to Grade B

Downward trend in asking rents of both Grade

A and Grade B:

• Grade A: -1.28% q-o-q

• Grade B: -1.16% q-o-q


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Ma

nila

Sin

ga

po

re

Ho

Chi M

inh C

ity

New

De

lhi

Kua

la L

um

pur

Ta

ipei

Seo

ul

Auckla

nd

Ban

gkok

Sha

ngh

ai

Gua

ngzh

ou

Beiji

ng

Sydn

ey

To

kyo

Ho

ng

Kon

g

Me

lbou

rne

Hano

i

Mu

mb

ai

Brisb

an

e

Rental Growth, H1 2014 Forecast Rental Growth, 2014

APAC Rental Growth

OFFICE

(*) Forecasted at the end of 2013

Source: CBRE Research, August 2014.

Better than expected In line with expectations Lagging behind expectations

*


-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2011 2012 2013 2014

Ne

t a

bso

rptio

n (

sq

m)

Grade A Grade B

Grade A: +8,731 sqm

The new entrance of Lotte Center

Hanoi is attracting big companies,

banks and embassies.

Grade B: +23,767 sqm

Positive take-up by large corporations

in several office buildings in non-CBD

locations.

Net Absorption: improved both q-o-q and y-o-y

OFFICE

Source: CBRE

Grade A & B new net absorption, Q3 2014

Net absorption per quarter

3-year average


OFFICE

Source: CBRE

Number is calculated based on CBRE’s

enquiries only

Tenants preference by location

30%

48%

22%

Q3/2013

28%

39%

33%

Q2/2014

CBD Midtown West

36%

27%

37%

Q3/2014

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Q3/2013 Q2/2014 Q3/2014

Area < 100 100 - 300 300 - 1000 > 1000

Tenants preference by space (sqm)


Future supply

OFFICE

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Grade A Grade B

• Limited supply in the last quarter of 2014

• Total supply is projected to reach 1.3 mil sqm by Q4/2015

Forecast


Outlook

OFFICE

“Future-Proofing”

as older buildings

take action to

renovate facilities

and keep up with

newer offerings

MNCs who

downgraded to low

B or C Grade

properties will look

to upgrade

Lotte Center

Hanoi leads the

pack as Mid-town

emerges as 2nd

CBD

Average rent will

slightly decrease till

the end of the year.


The opening of 1st Lotte Department Store in Hanoi

RETAIL

Retail space: 21,480 sqm

Location: Basement 1, 1st – 6th floor

Anchor tenant: Lotte Mart

Rental: Turnover Share


Rental drops have occurred across CBD and non-CBD

RETAIL

AVERAGE RENTS DECLINED ACROSS CBD AND NON-CBD Q-O-Q (13.9% and 2.0%

respectively)

The closing of a shopping center in CBD lowered rentals of the whole market as this

offers the highest rental in this segment

Certain retail podiums in CBD are offering softer rents, yet rentals in the CBD are still

perceived to be too high for many retailers. -101030507090

2011 2012 2013 2014

US

$/s

m/m

on

th

Shopping Centre Retail Lobby Department Store

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2011 2012 2013 Q3/2014

US

$/s

m/m

onth

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

2011 2012 2013 Q3/2014

US

$/s

m/m

onth

Retail Ground Floor Asking Rents – CBD Retail Ground Floor Asking Rents – non-CBD


Average vacancy increased in both CBD and non-CBD

RETAIL

Vacancy increased 5.2 ppt and 5.1 ppt in the CBD and non-CBD respectively

Market average vacancy was 22.2%, increased by 5.3 ppt.

Market average vacancy on the rise despite new entry with high occupancy.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2011 2012 2013 Q3/2014

CBD non-CBD

Retail Vacancy by Location


Retailer entries & expansions

RETAIL

Topshop Topman: 1st store in Hanoi

Oasis: 1st store in Hanoi

Warehouse: 3rd store in Hanoi

Starbucks: 3 stores opened within 10 days.

All are located in prime CBD.

More to open in the coming months.


Retail neighborhoods shaping up Hanoi retail landscape

RETAIL

BA DINH

TAY HO

HOAN KIEM

DONG DA

HAI BA TRUNG

LONG BIEN

CAU GIAY

TU LIEM

DONG ANH

WESTLAKE

Trung Hoa – Nhan Chinh – a growing “Koreatown”

Tay Ho – a new food, fashion and creative quarter

CBD – the Tradional Fine Dining

and Boutique Center


Upcoming Developments

RETAIL

Ho Guom Plaza

Shopping Center

• Ha Dong District

• GFA: 23,400 sm

• 4 floors

• Completed & open for

lease

• Anchor tenant: Tran

Anh, HG Supermarket

Expect to open in 2014

Shopping Center in Hoa

Binh Green City

• Hai Ba Trung District

• GFA: 25,000 sm

• 4 floors

• Completed & open for

lease

• Offering free rental for

local retailers

Expect to open in 2015 & 2016

Aeon mall

• Long Bien district

• GFA: 108,000 sm

• 4 floors

• Under construction

• Expected to open in

Q4/2015

Vincom Center Nguyen

Chi Thanh

• Dong Da

• GFA: 65,400 sm

• Under construction

• Expected to open in

Q4/2016


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

To

kyo

Ban

gkok

Beiji

ng

Kua

la L

um

pur

Ne

w D

elh

i

She

nzhe

n

Ha

no

i

Gua

ngzh

ou

Sha

ngh

ai

Sydn

ey

Sin

ga

po

re

Ma

nila

Me

lbou

rne

Ja

kart

a

Brisbane

Mu

mb

ai

Ho

Chi M

inh C

ity

Ade

laid

e

Ho

ng

Kon

g

Pert

h

Ta

ipei

Auckla

nd

We

lling

ton

De

ve

lop

me

nt P

ipe

line

(‘0

00

sm

) 2015 2014

APAC Development Pipeline

RETAIL

Development Pipeline, Q3 2014

Source: CBRE Research Q2 2014.


APAC Prime Retail Rent

RETAIL

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

US

$/s

qu

are

fo

ot/

an

nu

m

Prime Retail Rent, Q3 2014

Beijing

Guangzhou

Shanghai

Kuala Lumpur

Singapore

Shenzen

New Delhi

Mumbai

Manila

Bangkok

HCMC

Hanoi

Source: CBRE Research Q2 2014.


VIETNAM IN THE ASIA PACIFIC'S TOP 500 RETAILERS

5 retailers in the top 500, 2014 10 retailers in the top 500, 2013


Outlook

RETAIL

F&B and supermarket are necessary elements in any modern

shopping center

Luxury shopping centers should create better tenant mix and offer more

professional services to serve sophisciated and discerning customers

Street front shops and boutiques continue to maintain their uniqueness and attractiveness

Retail space in the CBD is in high demand in spite of high rents due to big retailers

preferences, particularly new entries


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Un

its

Vavancy r

ate

(%

)

Supply Vacancy rate

SERVICED APARTMENTS

All rents are quoted inclusive of VAT and service charge.

Source: CBRE

Lotte Center Hanoi

Serviced Residence

~ 258 Units

Supply:

8.3% q-o-q

Hanoi Serviced Apartment Supply


Vacancy Rate/ Asking Rent

SERVICED APARTMENTS

Source: CBRE

AVERAGE RENT

(US$/sm/month)

VACANCY RATE

(%)

Grade A witnessed slight increase in asking rents 1% q-o-q owing to new entry of Lotte

Center Hanoi

Grade B saw vacancy decrease 3.99pp q-o-q.

Vacant units are mostly Studio, 1BR and 4BR types.

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Grade A Grade B

Askin

g r

en

t (U

S$/p

sm

/mth

)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Grade A Grade B


Buy to let trend

SERVICED APARTMENTS

“In order to attract more buyers, developers of newly

built building in Hanoi are also offering more

incentives, including being prepared to take on newly-

bought apartments and putting them out to lease.”

Vietnam Investment Review


Total supply up by 3.3% q-o-q and

11.8% y-o-y.

5-star hotels supply further increased

HOTEL

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1995 20002005 2010 2011 2012 2013Q3 14

No. o

f hote

ls N

o.

of ro

om

s

5 star 4 star 3 star Number of hotels

Hotel Supply in Hanoi

The opening of Lotte Hotel added

318 rooms to the market


Low season: ADR lowered to maintain occupancy

HOTEL PERFORMANCE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Dec 2013 Mar 2014 June 2014 August 2014

Occu

pa

ncy (

%)

AD

R &

RevP

AR

(U

S$/r

m/n

ight)

ADR (LHS) RevPAR (LHS) Occupancy (RHS)

Performances of monitored projects, including eleven 5-star hotels, six 4-star hotels and one 3-star hotel in Hanoi.


Int’l tourist arrivals to Hanoi reached 1.5 million in 9M/2014, up 17.1% y-o-y,

while domestic arrivals decreased 0.6% y-o-y.

Tourist arrivals

HOTEL

Source: GSO

Number of Arrivals to Hanoi by Year

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2011 2012 2013 2014

Arr

iva

ls

Domestic International

Leisure traveler

80.4%

16.4%

Business traveler

16.3%

20.4%

Others

International travelers by purpose


AEON BINH TAN

• Address: International Hi-tech

Healthcare Park, Binh Tan, HCMC

• Scale: 4.7 ha

• Price: $8.7 million

• Seller: Aseana Properties JV Hoa Lam

• Buyer: Aeon Mall

STORY ON THE MARKET, Q2 2014

Source: RCA, retrieved July 1, 2014

HANOI TIMES TOWER(*)

• Address: Van Phu, Ha Dong, Hanoi

• Scale: 1.3 ha

• Amount: $15.4 million

• Investor/Lender: Ocean Bank

• Owner: Petro Vietnam

*Refinancing transaction

INDOCHINE PARK TOWER

• Address: 1 Le Quy Don, D1, HCMC

• Scale: 55 units serviced apartments

• Price: $14.3 million

• Seller: Mulpha International Bhd

• Buyer: Lemongrass Master Fund

DEVELOPMENT SITE

KHU ĐẤT DỰ ÁN


INVESTMENT - STORY ON THE MARKET, Q3 2014

Source: RCA, retrieved September 29, 2014 and newspapers.

DIAMOND PLAZA

NBB GARDEN III NBB GARDEN II CITY GATE TOWERS

• Location: HCMC

• Seller: POSCO

• Buyer: Lotte Shopping

• Property type: Retail

• Amount: n/a

• Location: HCMC

• Owner: NBB

• Refinanciar: CREED

• Property type: Dev. Site


• Location: HCMC

• Seller: NBB

• Buyer: CREED


• Amount: n/a

• Location: HCMC

• Seller: NBB

• Buyer: CREED



CORNER STONE THE ESTELLA

• Location: Hanoi

• Seller: VIB

• Buyer: Daibiru

• Property type: Office


• Location: HCMC

• Seller: Tien Phuoc

• Buyer: Keppel Land



METRO CASH & CARRY

• Location: Vietnam

• Seller: Metro Cash & Carry Vietnam

• Buyer: Berli Jucker


• Amount: $877 million

OCEAN MART


• Owner: Ocean Group

• Buyer: Vingroup


http://www.google.com.vn/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=nZGHmSchc3NPWM&tbnid=t8_JxQNs-qOGxM:&ved=0CAgQjRw&url=http://www.vir.com.vn/news/en/property/cornerstone-proves-a-grade-a-business-milestone.html&ei=h_8jVNLrJJTU8gXo7YDIAQ&psig=AFQjCNEnfHgQm92SWgKoqY_FkVZVQfXpRQ&ust=1411731719689797

http://www.google.com.vn/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=9L5fANBxVAIuzM&tbnid=TdkwLj4xActDDM:&ved=0CAgQjRw&url=http://www.vatgia.com/raovat/10494/7904602/an-cu-tai-the-estella-trai-nghiem-tien-ich-cua-khu-resort-phong-cach-singapore-ngay-tai-trung-tam-tp.html&ei=eAAkVNrXIobg8AXe7ILoCw&psig=AFQjCNEjJ6Hz7eY3iPpVq8lINm42QfHCEQ&ust=1411731960673616

http://www.google.com.vn/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=LWSN1Uk6i3xj9M&tbnid=EKTeqdk29RPjKM:&ved=0CAgQjRw&url=http://www.vasep.com.vn/Tin-Tuc/53_2865/Metro-Cash-Carry-Viet-Nam-Xay-dung-tieu-chuan-Metro-Requirements-ve-thuc-hanh-nong-nghiep-tot-cho-nganh-thuy-san.htm&ei=xwMpVPJSjuzwBdq1grgH&psig=AFQjCNH8ktltRtQD2c4tGhHgBLch2x5sDg&ust=1412060487116745

http://www.google.com.vn/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=JYOweI6juQajXM&tbnid=WlpAAwpezBXdEM:&ved=0CAgQjRw&url=http://batdongsan.com.vn/city-gate-towers-pj470&ei=K3kyVJTaEpL88AXD0YCACg&psig=AFQjCNH1DHU5aXSMUAxEZ_yhUOR7WVJiSA&ust=1412680363373484


Thai Groups Expand Business in Vietnam

INVESTMENT

METRO CASH & CARRY


• Seller: Metro Cash & Carry Vietnam

• Buyer: Berli Jucker


• Amount: $877 million

http://www.google.com.vn/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=LWSN1Uk6i3xj9M&tbnid=EKTeqdk29RPjKM:&ved=0CAgQjRw&url=http://www.vasep.com.vn/Tin-Tuc/53_2865/Metro-Cash-Carry-Viet-Nam-Xay-dung-tieu-chuan-Metro-Requirements-ve-thuc-hanh-nong-nghiep-tot-cho-nganh-thuy-san.htm&ei=xwMpVPJSjuzwBdq1grgH&psig=AFQjCNH8ktltRtQD2c4tGhHgBLch2x5sDg&ust=1412060487116745


Thai groups expand business to Vietnam

Koreans are active in both selling (Kumho Asiana,

Daewoo) and buying (Lotte, CJ, Asiana Airlines).

Singaporeans have become active buyers

(Keppel, Mapletree, Capitaland, Ascott).

Domestic Players Dominate both Buyers and Sellers

INVESTMENT

Domestic 63%

Japan 6%

Korea 13%

Offshore 4%

Singapore 8%

Taiwan 2%

Thailand 4%

Domestic 54%

Hong Kong 15%

Japan 2%

Korea 13%

Malaysia 3%

Netherlands 5%

Offshore 8%

Sellers Domestic

Hong Kong

Japan

Korea

Malaysia

Netherlands

Offshore

(blank)

Data recorded during the period of 2011- YTD 2014

Source: RCA, retrieved Sep 2014

BUYERS SELLERS

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

Every week – NEWSPAPER UPDATES

Every month – DASHBOARD

Every quarter – QUARTERLY REPORT

At CBRE, we live and breathe

the business of real estate

© 2014 CBRE (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CBRE (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. We obtained some of the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified the accuracy of the information which we obtained from other sources and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates which are made with careful consideration of factors known to us for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CBRE clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.

For more information regarding this presentation please contact: CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. Research & Consulting T +84 4 2220 0220

F +84 4 2220 0210

[email protected]

HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2014 - CBRE Vietnam€¦ · HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2014 Thursday, ... 9...

Documents

Transcript of HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2014 - CBRE Vietnam€¦ · HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2014 Thursday, ... 9...