Disruptive Futures: Core Forces of Technological, Economic and Social Change
Reshaping the Property Sector
Cityscape Global 15
Dubai
September 5th 2016
Rohit Talwar
CEO
Fast Future
Tomorrow’s Agenda
[email protected] www.fastfuturepublishing.com
What is the Prize we are Playing for?
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Build Mindset, Talent, Agility and Innovation Culture
‘Future Proofed’ Organisations Work on
3 Horizons in Parallel
4-10+ Years
Understand
Future
Drivers
1-3 Years
Search for
Growth
1-12 Months
Operational
Excellence
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How will we Change our DNA?
Play by the
Rules of the
Game
Create a
New Game
Every Sector will Transform by 2020
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10 Key Disruptions are Shaping the Global Business
Environment, Driving Change and Creating Opportunity
1. Shift from Physical to Digital Mindsets
2. Exponential Science and Technology
Developments – e.g. Internet of Things, Big Data,
Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
3. Linear Versus Exponential Business Thinking
4. Human Versus Machine
5. Potential for Major Shifts in Employment Patterns
6. ‘Financial Stress’ Driving New Economic Thinking
7. Migration from Central Control to Distributed -
Digital Currencies, Blockchain and CryptoContracts
8. New Industries are Emerging
9. Desire for Trust and Transparency
10. Social Structures and Political Governance Models
at the Crossroads
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Social and Political Governance Models at
the Crossroads
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Construction Megatrends
• Market and Customers
• Sustainability and
Resilience
• Society and Workforce
• Politics and Regulation
Global Construction Industry
Worth $10 Trillion by 2020?
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Megatrends Driving Real Estate
When Two
Worlds CollideA
Digitized
Society With a
Global BrainA
Physical
& Local
World
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What’s Next in ICT - we can Anticipate at
Least 60%of the Technology Timeline
It is Key to Understand the Core Trends…[email protected] www.fastfuturepublishing.com
A Continuous Technology Evolution in Power,
Performance and Size - from the Mainframe...
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…to the Desktop…
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...Portable and Mobile ...
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...Wearable...
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...Embedded...
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... Hyperconnected to a Multi-Sensory
‘Internet of Humanity’…
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The Power of Exponential Growth
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Pursuit of Exponential Growth
AirBnB Hotels 90x more listings per employee
GitHub Software 109x more repositories per employee
Local Motors
Automotive
1000x cheaper to develop a new car model
5-22x faster to manufacture a car
Quirky Consumer Goods 10x faster product development (29 vs 300 days)
Google Ventures
Investments
2.5x more investments in early stage start-ups
10x faster through design process
Valve Gaming 30x more market cap per employee
Tesla Automotive 30x more market cap per employee
Tangerine (formerly ING Direct
Canada) Banking
7x more customers per employee
4x more deposits per customer
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Strati – First 3D Printed Car (Local Motors)
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Exponential Market Cap ImprovementAge (yrs) 2011 valuation 2016 valuation Increase
Haier 31 $19 billion $60 billion (2014) 3x
Valve 19 $1.5 billion $4.5 billion (2014) 3x
Google 18 $150 billion $533.4 billion 3.6x
Uber 8 $2 billion $62.5 billion 31x
AirBnB 7 $2 billion $25.5 billion 12.8x
Github 7 $ 500 million (est.) $2 billion 4x
Waze 7 $ 25 million $1.15 billion (sold to
Google in 2013)
46x
Qirky 6 $ 50 million Closed 40x at peak
Snapchat 4 0 $16 billion 16,000x +
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Nanotechnology /
Atomically Precise
Manufacturing3D / 4D
Printing
New Computing
Architectures
Hyperconnected
Internet of
Humanity
Immersivity /
Mixed Reality
Living
Food Chain
Transformation
Energy
Innovation
Robotics /
Drones
Brain
Uploading
Exponential
Science and Technology
Developments
Blockchain
Technology
Healthcare
Transformation
Artificial
Intelligence /
Conscious
Technology
Synthetic
BiologyHuman
Augmentation
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Artificial Intelligence –
What’s all the Fuss About?
Artificial intelligence (AI) is an area of
computer science that emphasizes the
creation of intelligent machines that
work and react like humans. E.g.
Speech recognition, visual perception,
learning, reasoning, inference,
strategising, planning, intuition,
decision-making, and language
translation.
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Artificial General Intelligence and the
Prospect of Super Intelligence
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A FinTech Investment Explosion – Real Tech will Follow
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Rapid Modular Construction – 57 Storeys, 19 Days
Vertical Cities
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Zhuoda (Xi’an) - 3D Printed Homes –
Assembly in Under 3 Hours (US$483 / SQM)
$483 U.S
3D Printing
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3D Printed Office Buildings
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Flexible, Modular, Multi-Use
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Google’s Reconfigurable, See-Through HQ
Co-Living and Working Spaces
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Radical Concepts
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‘Robot Builders' – e.g. Hadrian X
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Integrated Systems
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Drones
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Robot Spiders and ‘Swarm Construction’
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3d-printed Bricks Filled With Water
Could Help Regulate Temperatures
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Future Materials - Self-Healing, Permeable
Concrete / Plant Based Foam / CO2 Carbonates
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Recycled Ocean Plastic
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Sand Based Construction System - low-cost refugee schools
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Scaling Up Alternative Energy
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City-Scale Batteries
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Hyper-Connected via the Internet of Things
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AI and BIM (Building Information Modeling)
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Blockchain
Blockchain was created
for Bitcoin
Eliminates central
clearing mechanisms by
distributing transaction
ledgers across the web
securely
All parties involved
remain anonymous
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Ethereum and Smart Contracts
• Ethereum - platform to
create private blockchains
and smart contracts
• Goldman Sachs Estimates:
– Legal savings of $US11
- 12 billion per year from
streamlining clearing
and settlement of cash
securities
– $US2 - 4 billion annual
legal saving on moving
real estate titles to
distributed ledgers.
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So How do we Start the Journey?
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Build Key Muscles:
Flexibility,
Experimentation,
Prototyping and
Rapid
Innovation
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Deep Dives, Client Events and Research
e.g. Science Labs, VC Investments, Crowdfunding
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Rapid Action Teams (Internal and Client)
Prototypes, Rapid Launch, Refine in Use
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First they ignore you,
then they laugh at you,
then they fight you,
then you win.
Mahatma Gandhi
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