Cattle and Beef Market Outlook
Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
Oklahoma State University
2015 Market Setting
• Global • U.S. Economy • Agriculture • Cattle Industry
Major Beef Market Factors
• Cattle Inventory and Beef Production • Beef Demand • International Trade • Feed and Input Markets • Forage Conditions
C-P-49A10/26/15
120
170
220
270
320
370
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES 400-500 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-P-4910/26/15
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES 700-800 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain October 28, 2015, El Reno, Oklahoma
Weight (lbs)
Average Price ($/cwt.)
Total Value ($/hd)
VOG 400 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.)
VOG 450 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb
VOG 500 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.)
VOG 550 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.)
VOG 600 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.)
VOG 650 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.)
400 $258.86 $1,035 450 $239.56 $1,078 $0.85 500 $225.82 $1,129 $0.94 $1.02 550 $214.83 $1,182 $0.97 $1.04 $1.05 600 $208.21 $1,249 $1.07 $1.14 $1.20 $1.35 650 $203.91 $1,325 $1.16 $1.24 $1.31 $1.44 $1.52 700 $199.70 $1,398 $1.21 $1.28 $1.34 $1.44 $1.49 $1.45 750 $197.07 $1,478 $1.26 $1.33 $1.40 $1.48 $1.53 $1.53 800 $193.80 $1,550 $1.29 $1.35 $1.40 $1.48 $1.51 $1.50 850 $190.67 $1,621 $1.30 $1.36 $1.40 $1.46 $1.49 $1.48 900 $186.51 $1,679 $1.29 $1.33 $1.37 $1.42 $1.43 $1.41
JANUARY 1 BEEF COW INVENTORYU.S., Annual
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Mil. Head
Analysis by Derrell Peel Data Source: USDA-NASS
24 Dec 2014
U.S. Cattle Inventory July 1
2014 2015 % Change
1000 Head 1000 Head
All Cattle and Calves 96300 98400 +2.2
Beef Cows 29750 30500 +2.5
Dairy Cows 9250 9300 +0.5
Beef Replacements 4600 4900 +6.5
Dairy Replacements 4100 4200 +2.4
Other Heifers (500+ lbs.) 6900 6800 -1.4
Steers (500+ lbs.) 13700 14100 +2.9
Bulls (500+ lbs.) 1900 1900 0.0
Calves (<500 lbs.) 26100 26700 +2.3
Calf Crop 33900 34300 +1.2
Cattle on Feed 11900 12100 +1.7
Feeder Supply 34871 35500 +1.8
C-N-3707/24/15
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Mil. Head
HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS July 1, U.S.
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
+6.5 %
C-N-3207/24/15
30
35
40
45
50
55
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Mil. Head
JULY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-N-1010/23/15
9.5
9.7
9.9
10.1
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.9
11.1
11.3
11.5
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Head
CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly
Avg. 2009/13 2014 2015
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
HEIFERS ON FEEDQuarterly
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
1000 HeadAvg.2006/102011
2012
2013
2014
2015
M-S-0108/28/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
STEERS ON FEEDQuarterly
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
7200
7400
7600
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
1000 HeadAvg.2006/102011
2012
2013
2014
2015
M-S-0108/28/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Steer to Heifer Slaughter Ratio 12 month MA
1.401.501.601.701.801.902.002.102.202.30
01/0
1/70
01/0
1/72
01/0
1/74
01/0
1/76
01/0
1/78
01/0
1/80
01/0
1/82
01/0
1/84
01/0
1/86
01/0
1/88
01/0
1/90
01/0
1/92
01/0
1/94
01/0
1/96
01/0
1/98
01/0
1/00
01/0
1/02
01/0
1/04
01/0
1/06
01/0
1/08
01/0
1/10
01/0
1/12
01/0
1/14
C-N-0810/23/15
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Head
FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly
Avg. 2009/13 2014 2015
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Monthly Placements and F.I. Steer and Heifer Slaughter 12 Month Moving Ave.
170018001900200021002200230024002500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,00
0 H
ead
Plcmts Sltr
Cattle Slaughter Federally Inspected, 1000 Head
2014 % Change 2013 to
2014
% Change YTD
2014 to 2015
Most Recent 4 Weeks
YOY
Steers 15378 -3.9 -2.0 +7.8
Heifers 8378 -8.3 -13.2 -16.0
Dairy Cows 2816 -9.9 +3.7 +6.1
Beef Cows 2565 -18.1 -14.9 -3.1
Bulls 548 -1.7 -15.5 -8.1
Total 29684 -7.1 -5.9 -0.5
Data through October 17, 2015
C-S-1810/23/15
810
830
850
870
890
910
930
950
JAN APR JUL OCT
Pounds
STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly
Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Steer and Bull Carcass Weights, lbs.
750775800825850875900925950975
1000
Bull Steer
C-P-5210/26/15
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
175
185
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES Southern Plains, Weekly
Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-P-6210/26/15
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice 600-900 Lbs., Carcass, Weekly
Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
RETAIL BEEF PRICEMonthly
350375400425450475500525550575600625650
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Per Cwt
All Fresh
Choice
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
U.S. Beef Exports 2014
(1000 lbs.) % Change 2013
to 2014 % Change YTD 2014 to 2015
Japan 662460 -1.3 -12.3 Mexico 435137 +7.9 -22.6 Hong Kong 415895 +16.0 -29.6 Canada 364374 -22.2 -12.8 S. Korea 301257 +19.2 +9.7
Total 2572740 -0.7 -11.8
*January-August
U.S. Beef Imports 2014
(1000 lbs.) % Change 2013
to 2014 % Change YTD 2014 to 2015*
Australia 1082554 +73.5 +53.1 Canada 602063 +11.9 +6.2 New Zealand 596939 +13.5 +17.0 Mexico 310236 +23.3 +34.6 Nicaragua 139028 +52.1 +3.1
Total 2946827 +31.0 +31.9
*January-August
Meat Production and Consumption
Production Consum. Per Capita
Consum. Change
2013 2014 2015 2014-2015
2016 2015- 2016
2015 2014-2015
Million lbs.
Million lbs.
Million lbs.
% Change
Million lbs.
% Change
Retail Lbs. %
Beef 25720 24252 23740 -2.1 24577 +3.5 54.8 +1.1 Pork 23187 22843 24555 +7.5 24565 0.0 49.7 +6.4 Broilers 37425 38137 39871 +4.5 40823 +2.4 88.9 +6.7
BEEF PRODUCTION vs. BEEF COW INVENTORY
Inventory on January 1, U.S.
28293031323334353637
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Mil. Head
22
23
24
25
26
27
28Bil. Pounds
Commercial Beef Production
Beef Cow Inventory
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC and Derrell Peel
2015-2017 Forecast
C-P-0610/05/15
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$ Per Cwt
AVERAGE ANNUAL CATTLE PRICES Southern Plains
500-600lb Steer Calves 700-800lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
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