Clarify Decisions. Manage Risk.

The State-Of-The-Art In Probabilistic Risk Analysis And Decision Strategy For Complex Long-Term Projects

• Createsasingleintegratedmodelthatsimulatesallrelationshipsandrisksourcesovertheprojectlifespan

• Identifies,quantifiesandanalyzesalluncertaintiesandconsequencesaffectingprojectsuccessorfailure

• Incorporatesriskassessmentintothefinancialdecisionprocess

• Representsuncertaintyinstochasticprocesses,parametersandfutureoruncertaineventsexplicitly

• Simulatesuncertaintyin“soft”elementssuchapoliticalactions,publicacceptance,stakeholderreactionsandregulatoryoutcomes

• Assesseslikelihoodofoccurrenceandprobableconsequences

• Indicatesinterdependenciesautomatically

• Facilitatesthereuseandsharingofmodelingacrossanorganization

• Identifiesanddevelopsappropriateprioritizationandmitigationstrategies

• Providesaneasilyunderstoodcommunicationtoolforgainingfinancial,regulatory,politicalandpublicsupport

• Instantlyresponsivetohigh-level“whatif”questions

• Linksallrelatedfindingsanddocumentsinsupportanddefenseofdecisions

• Movesfromariskassessmenttoaprojectmanagementtoolastheprojectmovespastthedecisionprocessintoprojectimplementation

• Resultsinsignificantprojectcostsavings

PredicusLLC22500SE64thPlaceSuite240Issaquah,WA98027-8111USA

Telephone:+12063255490Email:info@predicusconsulting.comWebsite:www.predicusconsulting.com

©2011PredicusLLC Allrightsreserved

Bringing Clarity To

Decision-Making

For Complex,

High-Risk Projects

Risk-Informed Decision-Making Thrives On Clear, Defensible Information That Is Easily Communicated

Predicusdeliversacomprehensiveunderstandingofrisk,freeofbiasandnaïveté.Modelingofprobableoutcomesisquantitative,holisticanddetailedandquicklyresponsivetoinputchangesinrealtime.Combiningindustryandriskanalysisexpertisewithsuperiortools,ourprocessresultsinsignificanttimeandcostsavingsforourclients.

Revealingcomprehensiveriskassessmentandmitigationstrategieswithunrivaledclarity,Predicuselicitation,modelingandsimulationbecomeindispensabletomanagement—frominitialinvestmentdecisionsupporttothemanagementofcomplexprojectsovertheirentirelifespan.

Project Decisions Are Getting Tougher With Increased Complexity And Multiplied Uncertainties

Decisionsregardingcapitalinvestmentinlarge,long-termprojectscanbeveryriskyduetobroaduncertaintiesthatextendfarbeyondtheobviousissues.Asstrategicdecisionsupportspecialists,Predicusguidesastate-of-the-artprobabilisticriskanalysisprocessthatuniquelyenhancesexecutive-leveldecision-making.

Setting the standard for contemporary due diligencePredicusfacilitatesanarigorousapproachtomanageuncertaintyandriskinexecutive-leveldecision-makingandprojectmanagement.GoingfarbeyondtraditionalIRRandNPVanalysis,ourprocessnotonlyrevealsbutalsoquantifiesthefullconsequencesofinvestmentandmanagementdecisions.

Moving decision support beyond spreadsheets and bias The Predicus Process

Step 1: Definition

• Defineprojectgoalsthroughdialoguewithclient’sprojectteam

• Definesuccessfulprojectoutcomesandmeasuresofsuccess

• Assessavailabilityofrelevantandcurrentdata

• AssemblePredicusteamexpertise—purpose-builtforthespecificproject

Step 2: Vision

• ConductaSuccessPrecedenceDiagram(SPD)workshopledbythePredicusteamtodeveloptheproject’sbasiclogicsequence

• Confirmvisionofsuccessfuloutcomesincollaborationwithclientpersonnel

Step 3: Elicitation

• CreatetheinitialshelloftheholisticprojectmodelbasedonSPDinput

• MapareasoffocusforPredicusexpertelicitationprocess

• Conductelicitationworkshopsincollaborationwithclientpersonnelinatechnical,financialandpoliticalriskdiscoveryprocess

Step 4: Modeling

• Developadynamicgraphicalprojectmodelbaseduponelicitationinputandriskevaluations

• Assessprobabilityofsuccessforallprojectscenariosandoptions

• Determinepotentialbenefitsofreducinguncertaintiesthatimpactkeyprojectobjectives

Step 5: Simulation

• Presentsimulationstoclientmanagement—holisticallyandmodularly

• Conductinteractivemodelrefinementsincollaborationwithmanagement

• Presentthepotentialbenefitsofreducingspecificuncertainties

• Evaluateandadjustmitigationstrategies

The Predicus Mission

Bringexperiencedexecutivesandtechnicalspecialiststogetherwithstate-of-the-artsimulationtechnologytoclarifythemosteffectivedecisionpathformanagementoflarge,long-termprojectsthatarecomplicatedbysignificantuncertaintiesandcomplexfinancingrequirements.

Theprobabilityandimpactofcritical“softevents”areoftenoverlookedorinadequatelyassessed,particularlywhenriskperspectivesareevaluatedwithinthecomplexitiesandconfinesofaspreadsheet.Furtherchallengingisthefactthatmostengineers,estimators,developersandentrepreneursareeithertoooptimisticorreluctanttoadmittheiruncertainties.

Bringing new and invaluable insights into project risk and risk mitigationWhilesomeprobabilitiesarederivedfromstatistics,trulyeffectivedecisionstrategiesincludeabroaderrangeofissuesthatarequantifiedandtemperedbyunbiasedexpertopinion.Predicussimulatestheimpactofallformsofrisk,identifiesmitigationstrategies,anddeliversthedecision-makingframeworkthatsupportsmanagementovertheentireprojectlifecycle.