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Firenze,27 nov 2008
CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Assessing Needs of Care in European Nations
Seventh Framework Programme
Esther Mot
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Firenze,27 nov 2008
Beatles
When I'm 64
When I get older losing my hair, Many years from now, Will you still be sending me a valentine Birthday greetings bottle of wine?
If I'd been out till quarter to three Would you lock the door, Will you still need me, will you still feed me, When I'm sixty-four?
………..
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Firenze,27 nov 2008
The issue
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Background
Demand for care► Ageing of the baby boom► Life expectancy► Life style (smoking cessation, obesity)
Labour supply
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2008 versus 2040
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2040 after adjustment
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Questions Ancien
How will need, demand, supply and use of LTC develop?
How do different systems of LTC perform?
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Organisation Ancien
Coordination: ► Center for European Policy Studies
(CEPS): Güldem Okem
Scientific coordination► Federal Planning bureau (FPB): Peter
Willemé► Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy
Analysis (CPB): Esther Mot
Consortium:► 20 partners from 15 eu-countries
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Start of the project
portray LTC-systems in Europe► standardised format► data collection► typologies
selection of countries to model
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Modelling for selected countries
needs (lifestyle)
supply (formal and informal)
use
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Needs
projection of LTC needs► demography► risk factors (smoking, obesity)► education
alternative scenarios► demography only► trends in risk factors► effective intervention policies
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Supply
econometric analysis supply of:► informal care ► formal care► link with regulation
choice of care burden of caregivers labour market implications
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Use
micromodel to explain LTC usemacroprojections based on
micromodel policy simulations
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Qualitative analysis
quality of care► review of policies► selection of promising indicators
role of technology► potential solutions ► potential impact on challenges LTC► analysis of feasibility
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Final analysis
systems performance► simulations with the models (effect of
system on need, supply and use)► consultation of partners► analysis of performance
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Practical details
Start: 1/1/2009 (?)
Finish: in 2012
Website:► www.enepri.org
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The end
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20 partners from:
Austria Belgium Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Italy
Netherlands Poland Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United
Kingdom
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Firenze,27 nov 2008
Structure of the project
Conceptual model of LTC needs and use
Demography Life-style Socio-economic status
WP 2
Needs
Supply of formal care Supply of informal care
WP 3
WP 7
WP 1 Technology Quality of care
WP 4 WP 5
Projection of LTC use
at micro level
WP 6
Projection of LTC use LTC policy
at macro level
Dissemination: WP 8
Management and administration: WP 9
Institu-tional
factors: Organiza-
tion / financing
Analysis of system
perfor-mance
Choice model: informal/formal, at home/residential
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