African Adaptation
UNDP Accra
Model
• Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I
• P*dQ(C)/dI = R
• Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate
• Which crop is most productive depends on climate
Data
• 11 African countries
• Crops grown
• Livestock species chosen
• Climate
• Control variables
Methodology
• Logit regression
• Crop choice (across major crops) regressed on climate and control variables
• Livestock choice regressed on climate and control variables
• Holding control variables constant, estimate how temperature and precipitation affect choice
Functional form
• Pri=exp(BiXi)/(1-∑exp(BkXk))
• BX=b0+b1T+b2T2+b3P+b4P2+b5Z
Livestock Switching in Africa
Forecast CCC Scenario
• Start with original climate and estimate frequency sheep chosen
• Use CCC climate scenario and estimate new frequency of sheep chosen
Current allocation of African Sheep
African Sheep with CCC climate
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