African Adaptation

UNDP Accra

Model

• Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I

• P*dQ(C)/dI = R

• Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate

• Which crop is most productive depends on climate

Data

• 11 African countries

• Crops grown

• Livestock species chosen

• Climate

• Control variables

Methodology

• Logit regression

• Crop choice (across major crops) regressed on climate and control variables

• Livestock choice regressed on climate and control variables

• Holding control variables constant, estimate how temperature and precipitation affect choice

Functional form

• Pri=exp(BiXi)/(1-∑exp(BkXk))

• BX=b0+b1T+b2T2+b3P+b4P2+b5Z

Livestock Switching in Africa

Forecast CCC Scenario

• Start with original climate and estimate frequency sheep chosen

• Use CCC climate scenario and estimate new frequency of sheep chosen

Current allocation of African Sheep

African Sheep with CCC climate