Achieving Sustainable Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda
Shenggen FanDirector General
International Food Policy Research Institute
Multistakeholder Dialogue on Implementing Sustainable DevelopmentNew York, February 1, 2010
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
Key messages
1. Global food security is under stress
2. Africa needs special attention
3. Agenda for achieving sustainable food security
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
Food security under stress
Population growth and demographic changes
High and volatile prices
Land and water constraints
Climate change etc.
Food security stress AgendaAfrica
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
Hunger increased in the last decade
Number of undernourished (1969-71 to 2009)
Source: FAO 2009.
1969-71
1979-81
1990-92
1995-97
2000-02
2004-06
20082009
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
878 853 845
825
857 873
915
1,020
Mil
lio
ns
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
29 countries have “alarming“/“extremely alarming” levels of hunger (2009 GHI)
GHI components:• Proportion of undernourished• Prevalence of underweight in children• Under-five mortality rate
Source: von Grebmer et al. 2009.
Rapidly growing population and demographic change
World population reaches 9 bil. by 2050
All growth to come from urban areas
Most growth to come from developing countries
Rising working age population in Africa
Source: FAO 2009.
Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
Land constraints are high
Source: Bai et al. 2007 (LADA, FAO/ISRIC).
Land degradation, 1981-2003
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
Water stress is also high
Source: IWMI 2004.
Severe water stress will affect about half of the world's population by 2030 (OECD 2008)
Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
NCAR A2a
Climate change will put additional pressure on food production systems
Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize, 2050
Global production = -16%
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
Trade policies affecting food prices
Source: Headey, Malaiyandi, and Fan 2009.
Food security now more dependent on non-food policies e.g. trade, energy, finance
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
Africa needs special attention
Poverty prevalence ca. 2005 ($1.25/day)
Food security stress AgendaAfrica
Pixel size: 25km2Source: Stan Wood et al. 2009.
Source: von Grebmer et al. 2009.
2009 Global Hunger Index
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
Progress towards 10% budget allocation of the Maputo Declaration in Africa
Gu
inea
Bis
sau
***
DR
C**
Mo
rocc
o**
Mau
ritiu
s**
Rw
and
aC
amer
oo
n**
Bu
run
di*
**S
waz
ilan
d**
Su
dan
***
Tan
zan
ia**
Ben
in**
**N
iger
iaZ
amb
ia*
Mad
agas
car*
*M
oza
mb
iqu
e**
Gh
ana*
***
Mal
awi
Sen
egal
Nig
er*
0
5
10
15
20
25Agric. expenditures as a share of total spending (%), 2007
CURRENT, 2007 (Unless otherwise noted)
CAADP 10% BENCHMARK
%
*=2006; **=2005; ***=2004; ****=2008 estimatesSource: ReSAKSS 2009.
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
Agricultural growth rates required to achieve MDG1
Source: Fan et al. 2009.
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
Annual agriculture financing gaps to meet the poverty MDG – African countries
$1,1
82$1
,136
$681
$648
$573
$509
$442
$394 $373
$305
$270
$218
$162
$161
$161
$109
$100
$99
$98
$98 $91
$81
$73 $5
8$5
7$5
2$3
9$2
7$2
0$1
9
$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500N
iger
iaCo
te d
'Ivoi
reCo
ngo,
DR
Keny
aM
ali
Ethi
opia
Chad
Sene
gal
Togo
Zam
bia
Burk
ina F
aso
Beni
nTa
nzan
iaCa
mer
oon
Gui
nea
Rwan
daSw
azila
ndM
adag
asca
rBu
rund
iLe
soth
oN
iger
Moz
ambi
que
Uga
nda
Mal
awi
Gha
naN
amib
iaG
ambi
aLib
eria
C. A
frica
n Re
pM
aurit
ania
Gui
nea-
Biss
au
US$
milli
on, c
onst
rant
200
7
Annualized Financing Gap ($ million highlighted)
Current African government spending
$2,4
06
Source: Johnson 2009.
Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS)
Africa-wide network Supports implementation of
CAADP and other regional initiatives by:• promoting evidence-based
decision-making
• improving awareness of the role of agriculture for development
• filling knowledge gaps
• promoting dialogue
• facilitating CAADP benchmarking and review processes
http://www.resakss.org
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
1. Improve smallholder productivity
Improve access to inputs (e.g. seeds, fertilizer)
Improve access to services (e.g. extension)
Increase investment in rural infrastructure (e.g. rural feeder roads, water, irrigation)
Promote agricultural research and innovation
Food security stress AgendaAfrica
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
2. Link smallholders to markets
Promote stronger farm-firm linkages
Support beneficial institutional arrangements e.g. Producer marketing cooperatives Contract farming schemes Warehouse receipts
Scale up pro-poor ICTs e.g. Agricultural market information Micro-finance and m-banking
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
3. Keep trade open
Eliminate harmful trade restrictions
Complete the Doha Round • if tariffs increase to their current WTO limits (bound
level): 11.5% loss of developing country exports US$353 billion loss in world welfare
Potential costs of failed Doha Round could be high
Source: Bouet and Laborde 2009.
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
4. Promote productive safety nets
Goals: Secure and smooth food consumption Enable saving and investment Build and diversify assets
Types of interventions e.g.: Conditional cash/food transfers Maternal and child health/nutrition programs Public works Insurance for the poor
Source: Adato and Hoddinott 2008.
Programs depend on needs, capacities, and resources
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
5. Integrate climate change into strategies at all levels
GLOBAL CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES SPACIAL SCALES
Climate change
Extreme weather events
Demographic change
Conflict and crises
• Crop and livestock selection• Cropping and grazing pattern• Irrigation/watering technology
• Water allocation policy• Infrastructure investment• Land use change
• Agriculture and water price policies• Investment, subsidy, tax policies• Trade policies
• Regional trade policies• Global climate policies• Global trading patterns Global level
Regional level
National level
Farm level
Basin level
Source: IFPRI, Ringler 2007.
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
6. Reform global food governance system
Reform options:
1. Maintain current institutions: Make marginal improvements
2. Form innovative government networks: Strengthen government-to-government systems for decision making
3. Expand current system: Explicitly engage the new players in the global food system—the private sector and civil society
Source: von Braun and Islam 2009.
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
In sum
1. Improve smallholder productivity
2. Link smallholders to markets
3. Keep trade open
4. Promote productive safety nets
5. Integrate climate change into strategies at all levels
6. Reform global food governance system
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010
Further prioritization of actions needed
Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009.
The most effective and sustainable actions must be
country-led and country-owned
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