Achieving Sustainable Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda

Achieving Sustainable Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda

Shenggen FanDirector General

International Food Policy Research Institute

Multistakeholder Dialogue on Implementing Sustainable DevelopmentNew York, February 1, 2010

Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, February 2010

Key messages

1. Global food security is under stress

2. Africa needs special attention

3. Agenda for achieving sustainable food security


Food security under stress

Population growth and demographic changes

High and volatile prices

Land and water constraints

Climate change etc.

Food security stress AgendaAfrica


Hunger increased in the last decade

Number of undernourished (1969-71 to 2009)

Source: FAO 2009.

1969-71

1979-81

1990-92

1995-97

2000-02

2004-06

20082009

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

878 853 845

825

857 873

915

1,020

Mil

lio

ns


29 countries have “alarming“/“extremely alarming” levels of hunger (2009 GHI)

GHI components:• Proportion of undernourished• Prevalence of underweight in children• Under-five mortality rate

Source: von Grebmer et al. 2009.

Rapidly growing population and demographic change

World population reaches 9 bil. by 2050

All growth to come from urban areas

Most growth to come from developing countries

Rising working age population in Africa

Source: FAO 2009.

Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food


Land constraints are high

Source: Bai et al. 2007 (LADA, FAO/ISRIC).

Land degradation, 1981-2003


Water stress is also high

Source: IWMI 2004.

Severe water stress will affect about half of the world's population by 2030 (OECD 2008)

Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

NCAR A2a

Climate change will put additional pressure on food production systems

Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize, 2050

Global production = -16%


Trade policies affecting food prices

Source: Headey, Malaiyandi, and Fan 2009.

Food security now more dependent on non-food policies e.g. trade, energy, finance


Africa needs special attention

Poverty prevalence ca. 2005 ($1.25/day)


Pixel size: 25km2Source: Stan Wood et al. 2009.

Source: von Grebmer et al. 2009.

2009 Global Hunger Index


Progress towards 10% budget allocation of the Maputo Declaration in Africa

Gu

inea

Bis

sau

***

DR

C**

Mo

rocc

o**

Mau

ritiu

s**

Rw

and

aC

amer

oo

n**

Bu

run

di*

**S

waz

ilan

d**

Su

dan

***

Tan

zan

ia**

Ben

in**

**N

iger

iaZ

amb

ia*

Mad

agas

car*

*M

oza

mb

iqu

e**

Gh

ana*

***

Mal

awi

Sen

egal

Nig

er*

0

5

10

15

20

25Agric. expenditures as a share of total spending (%), 2007

CURRENT, 2007 (Unless otherwise noted)

CAADP 10% BENCHMARK

%

*=2006; **=2005; ***=2004; ****=2008 estimatesSource: ReSAKSS 2009.


Agricultural growth rates required to achieve MDG1

Source: Fan et al. 2009.


Annual agriculture financing gaps to meet the poverty MDG – African countries

$1,1

82$1

,136

$681

$648

$573

$509

$442

$394 $373

$305

$270

$218

$162

$161

$161

$109

$100

$99

$98

$98 $91

$81

$73 $5

8$5

7$5

2$3

9$2

7$2

0$1

9

$0

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500N

iger

iaCo

te d

'Ivoi

reCo

ngo,

DR

Keny

aM

ali

Ethi

opia

Chad

Sene

gal

Togo

Zam

bia

Burk

ina F

aso

Beni

nTa

nzan

iaCa

mer

oon

Gui

nea

Rwan

daSw

azila

ndM

adag

asca

rBu

rund

iLe

soth

oN

iger

Moz

ambi

que

Uga

nda

Mal

awi

Gha

naN

amib

iaG

ambi

aLib

eria

C. A

frica

n Re

pM

aurit

ania

Gui

nea-

Biss

au

US$

milli

on, c

onst

rant

200

7

Annualized Financing Gap ($ million highlighted)

Current African government spending

$2,4

06

Source: Johnson 2009.

Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS)

Africa-wide network Supports implementation of

CAADP and other regional initiatives by:• promoting evidence-based

decision-making

• improving awareness of the role of agriculture for development

• filling knowledge gaps

• promoting dialogue

• facilitating CAADP benchmarking and review processes

http://www.resakss.org


1. Improve smallholder productivity

Improve access to inputs (e.g. seeds, fertilizer)

Improve access to services (e.g. extension)

Increase investment in rural infrastructure (e.g. rural feeder roads, water, irrigation)

Promote agricultural research and innovation



2. Link smallholders to markets

Promote stronger farm-firm linkages

Support beneficial institutional arrangements e.g. Producer marketing cooperatives Contract farming schemes Warehouse receipts

Scale up pro-poor ICTs e.g. Agricultural market information Micro-finance and m-banking


3. Keep trade open

Eliminate harmful trade restrictions

Complete the Doha Round • if tariffs increase to their current WTO limits (bound

level): 11.5% loss of developing country exports US$353 billion loss in world welfare

Potential costs of failed Doha Round could be high

Source: Bouet and Laborde 2009.


4. Promote productive safety nets

Goals: Secure and smooth food consumption Enable saving and investment Build and diversify assets

Types of interventions e.g.: Conditional cash/food transfers Maternal and child health/nutrition programs Public works Insurance for the poor

Source: Adato and Hoddinott 2008.

Programs depend on needs, capacities, and resources


5. Integrate climate change into strategies at all levels

GLOBAL CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES SPACIAL SCALES

Climate change

Extreme weather events

Demographic change

Conflict and crises

• Crop and livestock selection• Cropping and grazing pattern• Irrigation/watering technology

• Water allocation policy• Infrastructure investment• Land use change

• Agriculture and water price policies• Investment, subsidy, tax policies• Trade policies

• Regional trade policies• Global climate policies• Global trading patterns Global level

Regional level

National level

Farm level

Basin level

Source: IFPRI, Ringler 2007.


6. Reform global food governance system

Reform options:

1. Maintain current institutions: Make marginal improvements

2. Form innovative government networks: Strengthen government-to-government systems for decision making

3. Expand current system: Explicitly engage the new players in the global food system—the private sector and civil society

Source: von Braun and Islam 2009.


In sum

1. Improve smallholder productivity

2. Link smallholders to markets

3. Keep trade open

4. Promote productive safety nets

5. Integrate climate change into strategies at all levels

6. Reform global food governance system


Further prioritization of actions needed

Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009.

The most effective and sustainable actions must be

country-led and country-owned

Achieving Sustainable Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda

Education

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