Slide 1
A Case Study in Tourism Development: Na8onal Park Visita8on Pa<erns in the Southwest
November 2, 2012
James Orr, Research Coordinator New Mexico Tourism Department
Slide 2
Trends in Na+onal Park Visits by State: 1979-‐2011
157%
119%
84%
238%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
225%
250%
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Arizona
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Source: U.S. Na8onal Park Service, h<ps://irma.nps.gov/Stats Total Park visits 2011 AZ CO UT NM
(in millions) 8.4 4.9 7.2 1.5
Slide 3
Two Goals of this Study:
• Why has park visita8on declined in New Mexico?
• What factors are associated with increased visita8on?
Slide 4
Why IS New Mexico Not Doing as Well as our Compe88ve Set?
Slide 5
Top 5* Arizona NPS Recrea+onal Visits 1979-‐2011
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Grand Canyon NP
Canyon de Chelly NM
Petrified Forest NP
Saguaro NP
Montezuma Castle NM
*Top 5 in 2011 Source: U.S. Na8onal Park Service, h<ps://irma.nps.gov/Stats
Slide 6
Top 5* Colorado NPS Recrea+onal Visits 1979-‐2011
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Rocky Mountain NP
Mesa Verde NP
Colorado NM
Great Sand Dunes
Black Canyon of the Gunnison
*Top 5 in 2011 Source: U.S. Na8onal Park Service, h<ps://irma.nps.gov/Stats
Slide 7
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Zion NP
Bryce Canyon NP
Arches NP
Capitol Reef NP
Cedar Breaks NM
Top 5* Utah NPS Recrea+onal Visits 1979-‐2011
*Top 5 in 2011 Source: U.S. Na8onal Park Service, h<ps://irma.nps.gov/Stats
Slide 8
Top 5* New Mexico NPS Recrea+onal Visits 1979-‐2011
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
White Sands NM
Carlsbad Caverns NP
Bandelier NM
Petroglyph NM
El Malpais NM
*Top 5 in 2011 Source: U.S. Na8onal Park Service, h<ps://irma.nps.gov/Stats
Major fires
Slide 9
Why is New Mexico the only State with Lower Visits at its Biggest
Parks?
Slide 10 Routes to Carlsbad Caverns – Pre & Post-‐
Interstate: US 180 vs. I-‐20
h<p://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Route_180 “US 180 was replaced in Texas by Interstates 20 and Interstate 10”
h<p://www.texasfreeway.com/statewide/statewide/roadmaps/statewide_road_maps.shtml 1976: Interstate 20 is nearly complete. Large gaps remain in Interstate 10 h<p://www.dfwfreeways.info/pages/oldroadmaps.aspx A substan8al amount of work remained to be done on I-‐10 in west Texas. Work con8nued in the 1970s and into the 1980s, with comple8on of the final link at Fort Stockton in May 1983
Slide 11
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: U.S. Na8onal Park Service, h<ps://irma.nps.gov/Stats
I-‐20 completed 1980, I-‐10 1983
Carlsbad Caverns Interstate Effect? (visits 1950 through 2011)
Proximity to nearest Interstate: Miles Minutes
Grand Canyon 57 71 Rocky Mtn 40 60 Zion 35 55 Carlsbad Caverns 101 110
Slide 12
Arizona Interstate Effect? (visits to top three Arizona NPS parks* – 1950 through 2011)
Source: U.S. Na8onal Park Service, h<ps://irma.nps.gov/Stats
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Canyon de Chelly
Grand Canyon
Saguaro 1984, I-‐40 completed
*Top 3 in 2011
Proximity to nearest Interstate: Miles Minutes
Canyon de Chelly 77 105 Grand Canyon 57 71 Saguaro 6 15
Slide 13
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Arches
Zion
Bryce Canyon
Utah Interstate Effect? (Visits to top three Utah NPS parks* – 1950 through 2011)
Source: U.S. Na8onal Park Service, h<ps://irma.nps.gov/Stats
1978, I-‐15 completed 1982, I-‐70 completed
*Top 3 in 2011
Proximity to nearest Interstate: Miles Minutes
Arches NP 28 30 Zion NP 35 55 Bryce Canyon NP 55 70
Slide 14
Plus, a Las Vegas Effect? (visits to Las Vegas – 1970 through 2011)
6,787,650
38,928,708
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Las Vegas Conven8on and Visitors Authority
Slide 15
Zion & Las Vegas Visitor Growth (1970 through 2011)
Sources for chart: Las Vegas Conven8on and Visitors Authority & NPS
574%
313%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Las Vegas Zion NP
“At Zion, traffic conges8on in the narrow canyon was recognized as a major problem in the 1990s and a public transporta8on system using propane-‐powered shu<le buses was ins8tuted in the year 2000”*
* h<p://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zion_Na8onal_Park
In a 2006 Zion NPS survey, Las Vegas was the #1 place visitors stayed overnight before and aTer leaving the park**
**Zion Na8onal Park Visitor Study Summer and Fall 2006, University of Idaho Park Studies Unit, Visitor Services Project, Report 183
Miles Minutes Las Vegas to Zion 164 170
Slide 16
The Grand Canyon & Las Vegas
*Grand Canyon Na8onal Park & Northern Arizona Tourism Study, Final Report 565, May 2005, Arizona Department of Transporta8on
• Las Vegas is the #1 community visited in conjunc8on with Grand Canyon Na8onal Park for travelers on I-‐40 and US 89 (p. 5)
• Almost as many Grand Canyon visitors flew into Las Vegas as Phoenix (37.5% vs. 44.3%) (p. 3)
• …Las Vegas is a major feeder market for the Grand Canyon (p. 4)
Findings from a 2005 study*:
Slide 17
Conclusions
• Rerou8ng traffic to the Interstates from US 180 and US 70 hurt Carlsbad Caverns in par8cular, and White Sands to a smaller degree (WS is closer to major routes). Bandalier?
• New Mexico park visita8on has suffered because its largest parks declined. Although the smaller parks have grown, their visita8on numbers are too small to change that trajectory.
• Overall, Interstates have greatly improved access to most Utah parks – and visita8on has grown. The impact on Colorado appears to be mostly neutral.
• The combined effect of Interstate development and spill over from Las Vegas led to major boosts in visits to Zion and the Grand Canyon. (Grand Canyon NP now makes up 51% of all visits to Arizona’s 19 NPS proper8es (it was 40% in 1979)
Slide 18
So if your des8na8on is not near an Interstate or big tourist a<rac8on, are you doomed?
NO!
Slide 19 The Case of Big Bend:
Proximity to nearest Interstate*: Miles Minutes
Guadalupe NP 64 98 Big Bend NP 125 133
Carlsbad Caverns NP 101 110
*Guadalupe -‐ from Van Horn, Tx I-‐10 Big Bend -‐ from Ft. Stockton, Tx I-‐10 to US 385 Park Route 12 junc8on Carlsbad Caverns – from Pecos, Tx I-‐10
Slide 20
Carlsbad Caverns and West Texas Park Visits: 1979-‐2011
Source: U.S. Na8onal Park Service, h<ps://irma.nps.gov/Stats
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Guadalupe NP Big Bend NP Carlsbad Caverns NP
Slide 21 What’s Happening at Big Bend?
Slide 22
Brewster County Sites:
Slide 23
• Promo%onal Synergies: the Big Bend region is promoted at the County level (visitbigbend.com), by the State (Texas State parks), at the Federal level (Big Bend Na8onal Park), and by Non-‐profits such as the “Friends of Big Bend Na8onal Park” (bigbendfriends.org) & the Chili Apprecia8on Socie8es (www.chili.org).
How Big Bend Became a Des8na8on
• Product Development: Events have been created and promoted by non-‐profits (such as the Big Bend Ultra Run bigbend50.com (10k to 50k runs), the Terlingua Interna8onal Chili Championships, and the Marathon to Marathon run). These types of events draw rela8vely affluent visitors. More businesses and homes have been built as the area develops.
• Product Development II: Big Bend Ranch State Park just west of Big Bend Park was established in 1988, the 300,000 acre promotes all sorts of outdoor recrea8on and has become another a<rac8on for the area.
Slide 24 Takeaways
• A nearby visitor magnet does wonders. (Las Vegas as a major feeder to Zion and the Grand Canyon). Are there poten8al visitor magnets on the horizon for New Mexico?
• Think regionally, not locally, partner with other en%%es to create a des%na%on for visitors. As broad a range of things to see and do as possible.
• Product development is at least as important as promo%on. Adver8sing is not sufficient if product isn’t there.
• Local, grass roots organiza%ons can be key to successful tourism development. Non-‐profit “Friends of…” type groups can be key players in developing product and promo8ng a<rac8ons (Friends of Big Bend NP, Friends of the Bosque).
• Create your own unique events such as compe%%ve spor%ng events to aDract both publicity and high-‐end visitors. (Big Bend Ultra Run and Marathon to Marathon. Hawaii is a mecca for extreme sports – Ultraman, Iron man, etc.)
Slide 25
Appendix
Interstate Comple+on Dates: NM: I-‐40 1981 I-‐25 1980 AZ: I-‐40 1984 CO: I-‐25 1968
I-‐70 1992 (Glenwood Canyon) TX: I-‐10 1983 I-‐20 1980? (nearly complete in
1976)
UT: I-‐70 1982 (4 lanes)
I-‐15 1974 “reasonably intact” probably late 1970’s
Arizona Colorado Grand Canyon NP Rocky Mountain NP Canyon de Chelly NM Mesa Verde NP Petrified Forest NP Colorado NM Saguaro NP Great Sand Dunes Montezuma Castle NM Black Canyon of the Gunnison Wupatki NM Dinosaur NM Organ Pipe Cactus NM Florissant Fossil Beds NM Sunset Crater Volcano NM Bent's Old Fort NHS Coronado NMEM Hovenweep NM Walnut Canyon NM Sand Creek Massacre NHS Tuzigoot NM Hubbell Trading Post NHS Navajo NM Casa Grande Ruins NM Pipe Spring NM Tonto NM Chiricahua NM Tumacacori NHP Fort Bowie NHS
New Mexico Utah White Sands NM Zion NP Carlsbad Caverns NP Bryce Canyon NP Bandelier NM Arches NP Petroglyph NM Capitol Reef NP El Malpais NM Cedar Breaks NM El Morro NM Canyonlands NP Capulin Volcano NM Timpanogos Cave NM Pecos NHP Rainbow Bridge NM Aztec Ruins NM Natural Bridges NM Chaco Culture NHP Dinosaur NM Salinas Pueblo Missions NM Golden Spike NHS Gila Cliff Dwellings NM Hovenweep NM Fort Union NM
Na8onal Parks included in this analysis:
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