A Futures Model to Address Information Warfare as an Upcoming
Wicked Problem
Rianne van Vuuren
University of Stellenbosch Business School (USB)
Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems:Where Futures Research, Education and Action meet
11–12 June 2015,
12 June 2015
Turku, Finland
Introduction Is Information Warfare a wicket problem?
The information age is bringing to the fore a new generation of threats and challenges, intermingled with the threats of the past
While security threats associated with the earlier agricultural and industrial age remain relevant, the identification of emerging threats to national security in the information age remains a challenge.
Introduction cont. Information in all its manifestations from data to
wisdom has been central to institutional power since the dawn of mankind.
Context for search for a model triggered by the broader question how will information warfare manifest as a national security concern in South Africa during the 2030s.
A multi-disciplinary approach, supported by futurist methodology, does have the capacity to provide the needed insight and foresight in this regard.
Futures Approach Sourced mainly from future studies theory.
Thinking about the future has been part of human civilisation since the earliest times.
Humanity needs the future strives to form adequate images of future realities (futura).
Future studies is multi-disciplinary in its research approach and trans-disciplinary in its intellectual tradition with only fairly recent efforts to have a knowledge base defined.
Despite historical roots, remains a relatively recent academic discipline and intellectual tool.
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Philosophical Approach In general, a futures orientated philosophical approach
subscribes to a post-positivist worldview in that it concurs with the notion that the absolute truth of knowledge is untenable.
In this regard critical realism provides the overall philosophical approach for the study of information warfare in a futurist context.
While science is regarded as a body of linguistics or numerical statements about the nature of reality, this also includes an interest in the activities of scientists and the history of science and its institutions
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PHILOSOPHICAL APPROACH (cont.)Truth can be known within the limits of human senses and intellect.
Even though truth “… is not absolute and is fallible, conjectural, conditional, corrigible, tentative, qualitatively judgemental, and presuppositional; warranted assertability is possible; some assertions are true and some are false, and we can frequently justify our beliefs, empirically or logically, about which is which” (Bell, 2007 vol. 1:207-208).
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Methodology Qualitative research methodologies, which draws
extensively on descriptive research, qualitative text analysis and the use of future study methodologies
The research processes identified as usefull include the defining of concepts, an environmental scan,the main driving forces and the use of causal layered analysis (CLA).
These are usefull for the development of a futures model for information warfare (by way of grounded theory)
Planning
horizon
Mapping
horizon
Now
Preferred
futuresVision
Time
Possible
Futures
Futures Map
Source: Kuusi, Cuhls and Steinmüller, 2015:63
Model for Information Warfare Futures A multitude of methods can be used to produce
the knowledgability that bring about insight and foresight. In this study a model is developed to assist in the process of identification of driving forces which will be influential in how information warfare manifest as a national security threat by 2030.
Future Studies Model applicable to Information warfare futures
Source: Own compilation
Defining Information Warfare Although the information revolution and growing
global integration are ensuring that information warfare is destined to become one of the most significant national security challenges in the future, diverse and sometimes even contradictory definitions have complicated the debate about this phenomenon
Definition The term information warfare is used in its contemporary
and futurist contexts, but strong historical links.
Some aspects related to information warfare are as old as mankind, many aspects as to how it is being applied in our contemporary information driven world are new.
Despite the common use of the term the lack of consensus on its meaning in both the academia and mass media necessitates the finding of a more exact definition to assist in understanding this concept in its current and futurist contexts.
Knowledge
Information
Context
Alter mentalmodels egeducation,propaganda,group pressure
Deny,Destroy,Disrupt,ManipulateSteal
Alter environmentalsignals
Degraded intelligence & information
Deny actionable communicationto othersAttempt toalter contextdataset
Data
Intelligence
(Source: Compiled from Hutchinson, & Warren, 2001:2)
Data, Knowledge, Information and Intelligence Continuum
Definition Information warfare is defined as actions
focused on destabilising or manipulatingthe core information networks of a state orentities in society with the aim to influencethe ability and will to project power as wellas efforts to counter similar attacks by anopposing entity and/or state.
NETWAR
PSYCHOLOGICALOPERATIONS
CYBER WARFARECOGNITIVE
TECHNOLOGICAL
Source: Own compilation
INFORMATION KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY
H
I
G
H
T
E
C
H
M
A
N
A
G
E
M
E
N
T
P
L
A
N
N
I
N
G
L
E
A
D
E
R
S
H
I
P
I
N
F
R
A
S
T
R
U
C
T
U
R
E
E
D
U
C
A
T
I
O
N
S
K
I
L
L
S
V
I
S
I
O
N
E
N
E
R
G
Y
L
E
G
I
T
I
M
A
C
Y
NETWORKING - COORDINATION – INTEGRATION - COMPATIBILITY - CONNECTIVITY
Source: Own compilation
Environmental Scanning
Environmental scanning is also used as an analysis method with the aim, to investigate uncertainties about the future in a systematic fashion
The multi-disciplinary environmental scanning consisted of a literature survey, aimed at identifying the development of information warfare and current manifestation.
Environmental scanning is the acquisition and use of information about events, trends, and relationships that form part of the external environment of any given phenomena (Choo, 2001) leading to the identification of the driving forces.
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Social environment
Economicenvironment
Political environment
War/Conflictenvironment
Technologyenvironment
Information Warfare
Source: Own compilation
Three Crosscutting Issues Three Environmental Issues
Three issues related to geopolitics and socio-economic environments are substantially different in the contemporary world compared to anything in past human experience.
The first is the level of integration of the world community and the rise of networks, especially social networks.
Second, the growing impact of innovation, especially technological innovation resulting inter alia in the growing wealth of many new states and networks but also great inequality between states, groups and individuals .
Thirdly societal change has been accelerated to new levels, resulting in transformation being a constant reality affecting nearly all social entities.
Future Studies Model applicable to Information warfare futures
Source: Own compilation
“real”
“imagined”
Deepening
Short
term
Long
term
Litany
Social system
and structure
Worldview
Myth &
Metaphor
TIME
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
Source: (Inayatullah, 2008b:1)
Driving Forces for Information Warfare Futures
Source: Own compilation
Assessment of the Future Studies Model applicable to Information warfare futures
1:Wide
scope of
possible
future paths
2:Most
relevant
futures
paths
3:Covering
interpretatio
n of past
’facts’
4:Effective
interpretatio
n of past
’facts’
5:Many
people
understand
the map,
e.g. simple
visualisatio
n
6:Relevant
experts
understand
the map
Security
Futures
Model
3 4 4 4 5 5
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