A Futures Model to Address Information Warfare as an Upcoming

Wicked Problem

Rianne van Vuuren

University of Stellenbosch Business School (USB)

Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems:Where Futures Research, Education and Action meet

11–12 June 2015,

12 June 2015

Turku, Finland

Introduction Is Information Warfare a wicket problem?

The information age is bringing to the fore a new generation of threats and challenges, intermingled with the threats of the past

While security threats associated with the earlier agricultural and industrial age remain relevant, the identification of emerging threats to national security in the information age remains a challenge.

Introduction cont. Information in all its manifestations from data to

wisdom has been central to institutional power since the dawn of mankind.

Context for search for a model triggered by the broader question how will information warfare manifest as a national security concern in South Africa during the 2030s.

A multi-disciplinary approach, supported by futurist methodology, does have the capacity to provide the needed insight and foresight in this regard.

Futures Approach Sourced mainly from future studies theory.

Thinking about the future has been part of human civilisation since the earliest times.

Humanity needs the future strives to form adequate images of future realities (futura).

Future studies is multi-disciplinary in its research approach and trans-disciplinary in its intellectual tradition with only fairly recent efforts to have a knowledge base defined.

Despite historical roots, remains a relatively recent academic discipline and intellectual tool.

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Philosophical Approach In general, a futures orientated philosophical approach

subscribes to a post-positivist worldview in that it concurs with the notion that the absolute truth of knowledge is untenable.

In this regard critical realism provides the overall philosophical approach for the study of information warfare in a futurist context.

While science is regarded as a body of linguistics or numerical statements about the nature of reality, this also includes an interest in the activities of scientists and the history of science and its institutions

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PHILOSOPHICAL APPROACH (cont.)Truth can be known within the limits of human senses and intellect.

Even though truth “… is not absolute and is fallible, conjectural, conditional, corrigible, tentative, qualitatively judgemental, and presuppositional; warranted assertability is possible; some assertions are true and some are false, and we can frequently justify our beliefs, empirically or logically, about which is which” (Bell, 2007 vol. 1:207-208).

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Methodology Qualitative research methodologies, which draws

extensively on descriptive research, qualitative text analysis and the use of future study methodologies

The research processes identified as usefull include the defining of concepts, an environmental scan,the main driving forces and the use of causal layered analysis (CLA).

These are usefull for the development of a futures model for information warfare (by way of grounded theory)

Planning

horizon

Mapping

horizon

Now

Preferred

futuresVision

Time

Possible

Futures

Futures Map

Source: Kuusi, Cuhls and Steinmüller, 2015:63

Model for Information Warfare Futures A multitude of methods can be used to produce

the knowledgability that bring about insight and foresight. In this study a model is developed to assist in the process of identification of driving forces which will be influential in how information warfare manifest as a national security threat by 2030.

Future Studies Model applicable to Information warfare futures

Source: Own compilation

Defining Information Warfare Although the information revolution and growing

global integration are ensuring that information warfare is destined to become one of the most significant national security challenges in the future, diverse and sometimes even contradictory definitions have complicated the debate about this phenomenon

Definition The term information warfare is used in its contemporary

and futurist contexts, but strong historical links.

Some aspects related to information warfare are as old as mankind, many aspects as to how it is being applied in our contemporary information driven world are new.

Despite the common use of the term the lack of consensus on its meaning in both the academia and mass media necessitates the finding of a more exact definition to assist in understanding this concept in its current and futurist contexts.

Knowledge

Information

Context

Alter mentalmodels egeducation,propaganda,group pressure

Deny,Destroy,Disrupt,ManipulateSteal

Alter environmentalsignals

Degraded intelligence & information

Deny actionable communicationto othersAttempt toalter contextdataset

Data

Intelligence

(Source: Compiled from Hutchinson, & Warren, 2001:2)

Data, Knowledge, Information and Intelligence Continuum

Definition Information warfare is defined as actions

focused on destabilising or manipulatingthe core information networks of a state orentities in society with the aim to influencethe ability and will to project power as wellas efforts to counter similar attacks by anopposing entity and/or state.

NETWAR

PSYCHOLOGICALOPERATIONS

CYBER WARFARECOGNITIVE

TECHNOLOGICAL

Source: Own compilation

INFORMATION KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY

H

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Y

L

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G

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A

C

Y

NETWORKING - COORDINATION – INTEGRATION - COMPATIBILITY - CONNECTIVITY

Source: Own compilation

Environmental Scanning

Environmental scanning is also used as an analysis method with the aim, to investigate uncertainties about the future in a systematic fashion

The multi-disciplinary environmental scanning consisted of a literature survey, aimed at identifying the development of information warfare and current manifestation.

Environmental scanning is the acquisition and use of information about events, trends, and relationships that form part of the external environment of any given phenomena (Choo, 2001) leading to the identification of the driving forces.

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Social environment

Economicenvironment

Political environment

War/Conflictenvironment

Technologyenvironment

Information Warfare

Source: Own compilation

Three Crosscutting Issues Three Environmental Issues

Three issues related to geopolitics and socio-economic environments are substantially different in the contemporary world compared to anything in past human experience.

The first is the level of integration of the world community and the rise of networks, especially social networks.

Second, the growing impact of innovation, especially technological innovation resulting inter alia in the growing wealth of many new states and networks but also great inequality between states, groups and individuals .

Thirdly societal change has been accelerated to new levels, resulting in transformation being a constant reality affecting nearly all social entities.

Future Studies Model applicable to Information warfare futures

Source: Own compilation

“real”

“imagined”

Deepening

Short

term

Long

term

Litany

Social system

and structure

Worldview

Myth &

Metaphor

TIME

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Source: (Inayatullah, 2008b:1)

Driving Forces for Information Warfare Futures

Source: Own compilation

Assessment of the Future Studies Model applicable to Information warfare futures

1:Wide

scope of

possible

future paths

2:Most

relevant

futures

paths

3:Covering

interpretatio

n of past

’facts’

4:Effective

interpretatio

n of past

’facts’

5:Many

people

understand

the map,

e.g. simple

visualisatio

n

6:Relevant

experts

understand

the map

Security

Futures

Model

3 4 4 4 5 5