1000 Lives
Annual Report
North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference
20th September 2013
NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l2
Plan• Geography
• Matrix working and team structure
• 1000 lives – 2011 to 2013
• Interactive model
• Preparing for 2014 - 2017
North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference
20th September 2013
Clinical Networks & Senates
3
North East, North Cumbria, and the Hambleton & Richmondshire districts of
North Yorks
Greater Manchester, Lancashire and south
Cumbria
Cheshire & Mersey
West Midlands
East Midlands
South West
Thames Valley
East of England
Wessex
Yorkshire & The Humber
South East Coast
London
NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l
Associate Director, Clinical Director for Networks, Senate Chair
Prevention, early
diagnosis and
primary care
Treatment and Patient Experience
Long term conditions,
Living with… and End of Life
Care
Business and
Information Support
4NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l
1000 Lives – 2011 to 20132011 Finding 1000 people, Saving 1000 livesCAM survey Race for Life partnership Shopping centre campaign Cancer in Community group
2012 GP education sessions with CVD networkBCOC – bowel campaign
5 NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l
1000 Lives – 2011 to 20132012 Fast focus events (FFEs) – lung and bowel OG local campaign BCOC lung and bowel refresh Regional blood in pee campaign
2013 4 x FFEs – prostate, skin, breast, acute
oncology Direct access to diagnosticsDecision support tools pilot
6NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l
The Model - Background• Interactive Tool developed based on available data
relating to key factors that influence cancer outcomes – smoking prevalence, lifestyle, stage of disease, mode of presentation
• Prototypes developed – used in Fast Focus Events and presented here last year – feedback good:
• Excellent ‘starting’ tool for discussions.
• Very good for baseline data.
• Breakdown at ? PCT/Trust level would be useful
• The tool looks simple to use and results easily seen when factors are changed is useful
7 NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l
Interactive model – current position
• Updated version of the Model available now - developed in collaboration with the NECN Pharmacy Industry Group
• Further development of data to reflect NHS changes
• Enhancements include:• Drill down to CCG level data• Inclusion of demographic data • Reporting facility to document results
• Small user event held at the end of August – feedback positive
8 NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l
Summary Data Baseline
9
Demographics CCG NetworkRegistered patients 3,125,868 Factors affecting incidenceRegistered cancer cases 16,759 16,759 % Male 50% 50% Attributes CCG Network% Female 50% 50% Smoking 24% 24%% Age above 65 18% 18% Alcohol 29% 29%Deprivation level 18% 18% Obesity / Overweight 27% 27%
Inactivity 88% 88%Colorectal Statistics Male Female All Red Meat Consumption 97% 97%Incidence 1404 1022 2426 Low Fibre Intake 80% 80%Survival Rate - Year 1 78 78 78Survival Rate - Year 5 61 61 61 Factors affecting survivalMortality 471 339 810
Screening CCG Network% Screening rates 59% 59%
Cancer stagesDukes A 13%Dukes B 27%
0.10181 Dukes C 29%0.12416 Dukes D 31%0.270650.00546 Routes to diagnosis CCG Network0.02763 Screen detected 4% 4%
Two Week Wait 32% 32%GP referral 16% 16%Other Outpatient 9% 9%Inpatient Elective 11% 11%Emergency presentation 25% 25%Death Certificate Only 0% 0%Unknown 3% 3%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Colorectal Cancer Trend - Cases - Persons
Incidence - Persons Survivors - 1 Year Survivors - 5 Year Deaths - Persons
NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l
Summary Data - Outputs
10
Change in Survival
Screening Male Female
2013Baseline
Indicative change
based on trend
2014Forecast
Modelled Change
Revised Forecast No patients surviving 1 year 0 0
Incidence 2426 32 2458 0 2458 No patients surviving 5 years 0 01 Year Survivors 1883 1 1883 0 18835 Years Survivors 1487 1 1489 0 1489 Cancer stagesDeaths 810 -11 799 0 799 Dukes A 0
Dukes B 0Dukes C 0
Change in Incidence Dukes D 0
Attributes Male FemaleRoutes to diagnosis
Change in 1 year survival
Smoking 0 0 Male FemaleAlcohol 0 0 Screen detected 0 0Obesity / Overweight 0 0 Two Week Wait 0 0Inactivity 0 0 GP referral 0 0Low Fruit and Vegetable consumption 0 0 Other Outpatient 0 0
Inpatient Elective 0 0Emergency presentation 0 0Death Certificate Only 0 0Unknown 0 0
North East Network
Warning - modelled data is not linked and should be analysed in isolation
Change in 5 year survival
Generate report
NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l
Effect of Interventions - Network
11
Males Females Persons Males Persons Females Males Females Persons1404 1022 2426 471 810 793 861 626 1487
-12 -7 -18 -4 -6 5 7 4 111393 1015 2408 467 804 798 868 631 1499
Baseline Change Baseline Change Baseline Change
24% 23% 24% 23% 24% 23%
29% 28% 29% 28% 29% 28%
27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%
88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88%
97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97%
80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
SAVI
NG
100
0 LI
VES
- M
OD
ELLI
NG
CO
LORE
CTA
L CA
NCE
R
North East Network
1090Males
9
Males
Smoking
Routes to Diagnosis
Change
Baseline
Incidence
Females
DeathsSurvivors - 5 Year
SurvivorsSurvivors - 1 Year
-2337
Persons1883
141099 1897
339
Attributable Factors Screening
Low Fibre Intake
Persons
Red Meat Consumption
Staging
Obesity / Overweight
Inactivity
New
Alcohol
Females
-4
-8
0 0 0 0
-4
-3
0 0 0 0
-8
-10
0 0 0 0
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0Smoking Alcohol Obesity / Overweight Inactivity Red Meat Consumption Low Fibre Intake
Male Change in Incidence Female Change in Incidence All Change in Incidence
Reset
NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l
The Model – Version 3
• Model available over lunch for you to look at
• Feedback welcomed – on increased functionality, how it looks etc.
• But also some specific questions to consider:
• Is the model user friendly
• Does it have the right data/format
• Would this model (in the correct format) influence the decisions you are making
• Who would use a model like this?
12 NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l
Next Steps
• Further refining of data and methodology
• Consider how to expand across all tumour groups and/or clinical networks – with linkages
• Incorporation of cost data – even if only indicative
• Develop mechanism to maintain currency of data and incorporate emerging evidence/priorities
• Consider roll out – how and where
• Respond to feedback of users to maintain usability
13 NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l
Preparing for 2014-17
• OG regional campaign – Spring
• National Strategies
• Linkages
• Themes
14 NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l
• • Any questions?
NHS | Presentation to North of England Cancer Network Annual Conference - 20 September 2013l15
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