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2
Strategy
• Identify links between electricity needs in thefuture and available renewable resources.
• Optimize development and deployment of
renewables based on their benefits to: – Electricity system
– Environment
– Local economies• Develop a research tool that integrates spatial
resource characteristics and planning analysis.
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3
Objectives
• Investigate the extent to which renewabledistributed electricity generation can helpaddress transmission constraints
• Determine performance characteristics for generation, transmission and renewabletechnology
• Identify locations within system wheresufficient renewable generation caneffectively address transmission problems
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4
Objectives
• We want to determine the impact of large-scale distributed projects on grid security.
• We need to:
– Identify weak transmission elements and
define metrics that assess system security.
– Find locations where new generation would
enhance the security of the grid.
– Combine maps of beneficial locations with
maps of energy resources.
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5
Methodology
• Simulation – Power Flow
– Contingency Analysis
• Security Metrics
• Results
– Weak Elements – Security Indices
– Visualization
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6
Power flow Simulation
• Identify weak elements in the system bysimulating impacts from lost transmission
or capacity (NERC N-1 contingency)
• More importantly, can identify locations in
system where new generation can provide
grid reliability benefits.
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7
Normal Operation Example
100 MW
50 MW
280 MW187 MW
110 MW
40 Mvar
80 MW
30 Mvar
130 MW
40 Mvar
40 MW
20 Mvar
1.
1.01 pu
1.04 pu1.04 pu
1.04 pu
0.9930 pu1.05 pu
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
67 MW
67 MW
33 MW 32 MW
57 MW58 MW
21 MW
21 MW
66 MW 65 MW
11 MW
11 MW
23 MW
42 MW
43 MW28 MW29 MW
23 MW
23 MW
200 MW
0 Mvar
200 MW
0 Mvar
A
MVA
29 MW 28 MW
One
Three
F
Two
Five
SixSeven
23 MW
87%
A
MVA
82%
A
MVA
System does not
have normal
operation thermal
violations
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Contingency Example
100 MW
50 MW
280 MW188 MW
110 MW
40 Mvar
80 MW
30 Mvar
130 MW
40 Mvar
40 MW
20 Mvar
1.00 pu
1.01 pu
1.04 pu1.04 pu
1.04 pu
0.9675 pu1.05 pu
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
45 MW
45 MW
55 MW 53 MW
0 MW0 MW
58 MW
56 MW
52 MW 51 MW
26 MW
25 MW
43 MW
36 MW
37 MW24 MW25 MW
30 MW
30 MW
150 MW
200 MW
0 Mvar
200 MW
0 Mvar
A
MVA
25 MW 24 MW
One
Three
Four
Two
Five
SixSeven
44 MW
83%
A
MVA
83%
A
MVA
95%
A
MVA
156%
A
MVA
Suppose there is a fault
and this line is
disconnected
Planning Solutions:
New line to bus 3
OR
New generation
at bus 3
Then this line gets
overloaded
(is a weak element)
This is a serious
problem for thesystem
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Contingency Analysis
• Security is determined by the ability of thesystem to withstand equipment failure.
• Weak elements are those that present
overloads in the contingency conditions(congestion).
• Standard approach is to perform a single
(N-1) contingency analysis simulation.• A ranking method will be demonstrated to prioritize transmission planning.
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Results Organized byLines, then Contingencies
Sum each value-100 tofind the Aggregate
Percentage Contingency
Overload (APCO)
Then multiply
by limit to get
the Aggregate
MW
Contingency
Overload
(AMWCO)
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100 MW
50 MW
280 MW187 MW
110 MW40 Mvar
80 MW30 Mvar
130 MW40 Mvar
40 MW20 Mvar
1.00 pu
1.01 pu
1.04 pu1.04 pu
1.04 pu
0.9930 pu1.05 pu
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
A
MVA
67 MW
67 MW
33 MW 32 MW
57 MW 58 MW
21 MW
21 MW
66 MW 65 MW
11 MW
11 MW
23 MW
42 MW
43 MW28 MW29 MW
23 MW
23 MW
150 MW
200 MW0 Mvar
200 MW0 Mvar
A
MVA
29 MW 28 MW
OneThree
Four
Two
Five
SixSeven
23 MW
87%
A
MVA
82%
A
MVA
28
21
14
7
0
AMWCO
Weak Element Visualization
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Determination of Good Locations
Overloaded Line
in this direction
New Source
Sink
Transfer helps mitigate
the overload by means
of a counter-flow
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Determination of Good Locations
• Generation could be located to producecounter-flows that mitigate weak element
contingency overloads.
• The new injection of power requires
decreasing generation somewhere else.
– A good assumption is that generation will be
decreased across the system or each control
area using participation factors.
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TLR for Normal Operation
• Need to know how the new generation at acertain bus will impact the flows in a
transmission element.
→ Transmission Loading Relief (TLR)
→ Since a TLR is calculated for every bus, the
TLR can be used to rank locations that
would be beneficial for security.
,ΔMWFlow
TLR ΔMWInjection
BRANCH
BUS BRANCH
BUS
jk i jk
i
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TLR for Contingencies
• Need to consider contingencies• Contingency Transmission Loading Relief
(TLR) Sensitivity is the change in the flow
of a line due to an injection at a bus
assuming a contingency condition.
,, ,
ΔContMWFlowTLR
ΔMWInjection
BRANCH CONT
BUS BRANCH CONT
BUS
jk ci jk c
i
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Determination of Good Locations
• Equivalent TLR (ETLR):
, ,
Overloaded Contingencies thatElements overloaded branch
,
ContingentViolations
ETLR = TLR
TLR
BUS BUS BRANCH CONT
BUS CONTVIOL
i i jk c
jk jk
i v
v
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Determination of Good Locations
• Weighted TLR (WTLR) using post-contingency TLRs:
,
ContingentViolations
CODir
WTLR = TLR
SysAMWCO MWCO
CONTVIOL
CONTVIOL
BUS BUS CONTVIOL
CONTVIOL
i i v
v v
v N
,
Branches
CODir
WTLR = TLR SysAMWCO
AMWCO
BRANCH
CONT
BUS BUS BRANCH
BRANCH
jk
i i jk
jk jk
N
• Weighted TLR (WTLR ) using base case
TLRs:
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Weighted TLR (WTLR)
• Complexity: A TLR is computed for each bus, tomitigate a weak element, under a contingency.
• We want a single “weighted” TLR for each bus.
Buses
Weak Elements
Contingencies
Buses
WTLR
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Calculating WTLRs
• The contingency information (severity andnumber) of a weak element can be captured bycalculating the Aggregate MW ContingencyOverload (AMWCO).
• This effectively converts the cube to a table.
Buses
Weak Elements
Buses
Weak Elements
Contingencies
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Calculating WTLRs
• Need to mitigate the weakest elements first• Weight the TLR by the weakness of each
element, which is given by the AMWCO.
Buses
Weak Elements
Buses
WTLR
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Meaning of the WTLR
• A WTLR of 0.5 at a bus means that 1MW of newgeneration injected at the specific bus is likely toreduce 0.5 MW of overload in transmissionelements during contingencies.
• Thus, if we inject new generation at high impact buses, re-dispatch the system, and rerun thecontingencies, the overloads will decrease.
• Note that the units of the WTLR are:
[MW Contingency Overload]
[MW Installed]
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Large Case Example
• Project for the California EnergyCommission (CEC).
– Needed to simulate N-1 contingencies (about
6,000 for California)
– Simulation developed for 2003, 2005, 2007
and 2017 summer peak cases.
– In 2003, there were 170 violatingcontingencies, 255 contingency violations, and
146 weak elements.
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Process Overview
Power
Flow Cases
Identify
Weak
Elements
Evaluate
Locations
(WTLR)
GIS Overlay
Test Power
Injections
at Select
Locations
MAR IPO S A
MAD ERA
FR ESN O
MERCED
TU L AR E
K INGS
MO N TERRE Y
SAN BEN ITO
SAN T ACLARAS AN TACR U Z
IN YO
MONO
STAN ISL AU S
PWR1PWR1PWR1
TO ULUMNE
ALPIN E
CAL AV ERAS
AMAD O R
ELD O RAD O
SAN MATEO
ALAMED A
MARIN
CO N TRACO STA
SANJO AQ U IN
SACRAMEN TO
YO N O
SO LAN O
N APA
SONOMA
L AK E
MENDOCHINO
CO LUSA
SU TTER
BUTTEG LEN N
PL ACER
N EV AD A
SIERR A
YU B A
PLUMAS
TEH AMA
TRIMITY
HUMBOLDTSH AST A
LASSEN
MODOC
SISK IYO U
D ELN O RTE
SAN LUISO BISPO
KER N
SAN TABARB ARA
VEN TURA
LO SAN G ELES
SAN BER N ARD IN O
RI VER SID E
IMPERIAL
SAN D IEGO
O R AN G E
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27
MARIPOSA
MADERA
FRESNO
MERCED
TULARE
KINGS
MON TERREY
SAN BENITO
SANTACLARA
SANTACRUZ
INYO
M ONO
STANISLAUS
PWR1
PWR1
PWR1
TOULUMNE
ALPINE
CALAVERAS
AMADOR
ELDORADO
SAN MATEO
ALAMEDA
MARIN
CONTRACOSTA
SAN JOAQUIN
SACRAMENTO
YONO
SOLANO
NAPA
S ONOM A
LAKE
M E ND OCH I NO
COLUSA
SUTTER
BUTTE
GLENN
PLACER
NEVADA
SIERRA
YUBA
PLUMAS
TEHAMA
TRIMITY
HUMBOLDT
SHASTA
LASSEN
M OD OC
SISKIYOU
DELNO RTE
SAN LUISOBISPO
KERN
SANTABARBARA
VENTURA
LOSANGELES
SAN BERNARDINO
RIVERSIDE
IMPERIAL
SAN DIEGO
ORANGE
Good Locations
New generation atgreen locations will
tend to reduce the
overloads.
New generation at red-
yellow locations will
tend to increase the
overloads.
Note that higher
imports would worsen
system security.
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28
Local WTLR Visualization
SAN MATEO
ALAMEDA
CONTRA COSTA
CASTROVL
CVBART
HICKS
JEFFERSN
LSPSTAS
MTCALFD
METCALF
METCALF
MTCALFE
MNTAVSA
MONTAVIS
MORAGA
MRAGA1M
MRAGA2M
MORAGA
MRAGA3M
NEWARKF
NEWARKE
NEWARKE
NWKDIST
NEWARKD
NWRK2M
NEWARKD
MARTIN C
SANMATEO
SANMATEO
MARTIN C
SARATOGA
TESLAC
TESLA
TESLAE
TESLAJA
TESLA
TESLAJB
TESLAD
UALCOGN
SFIA
MILLBRAE
RAVENSWD
RAVENSWD
DMTAR_SL
SL BART SN LND RO
JENNY
ALAMEDCT
OAKC115
STATIN L
WHISMAN
MOFT.FLD
LOCKHD 1
LOCKHD 2
S.L.A.C.
MTVIEW
STELLING
JARVIS
CRYOGEN
CYTEPMP
CMPEVRS
FREMNT
CLARMNT
LKWDBART
LKWD _JCT LAKEWD -M
LAKEWD-C
LK_REACT
SERRMNTE
ESTPRTL
STATIN D
AMESBS2
AMESBS1 AMESJ1B
AMESJ1A
AMESDST
WOLFE
E. SHORE
EASTSHRE
EMBRCDRE
EMBRCDRD
LAWRENCE
ROSSTAP1
ROSSMOOR
ROSSTAP2
SANRAMON
TASSAJAR
TRACY
TRACYJC
TRACY
TRCYPMP
STATIN X
DLYCTYP
DALYCTY
GRANT
UCBSUB
UCBJCT1
CLYLNDG
SMATEO3M
STATIN J
ALTM MDW
OAKLND23
MFT.FD J
LCKHD J1
LCKHD J2
SLACTAP1
ADCC
TESJCT
TESSUB
FLOWIND2
JVENTER
LLNLTAP
LLNLAB
LLNL
WND MSTR
DELTAPMP
VASONA
BELMONT
CLYLNG2
PLO ALTO
LONESTAR
SHREDDER
SHREDJCT
BAIR
JVBART
BAYMDWS
SFIA-MA
SHAWROAD
ESTGRND
HNTRSPT
MISSON
LARKIN E
LARKIN F
LARKIN D
POTRERO
BAYSHOR1
BAYSHOR2
AMD JCT
A.M.D
APPMAT
PHLPS_JT
PHILLIPS
BRITTN
PIERCY
IBM-CTLE
IBM-BALY
IBM-HRRS
IBM-HRJ
BAILYJ3
BAILYJ1BAILYJ2
EVRGRN 2
EVRGRN J EVRGRN 1
GILROY
MARKHM J
MARKH AM MARKH MJ2
SWIFT
ST O N E J
STONE
GEN ELEC
DIXON LD
MABURY
MABURYJ
MCKEE
SN JSEA
SJ B E
SJ B F
EDENVALE
ED N VL J3 ED N VL J1
ELPATIO
TRIMBLE
NORTECH
MONTAGUE
ZNKERJ1
ZAN KER ZN KER J2
KIFER
SCOTT
FMCJCT
FMC
AGNEW
AGNEWJ
MILPITAS
wakshaj
WAUKESHA
ELLSGTY
KSSN-J
H J H E I N Z
TEICHERT
TH.E.DV.
NUMMI
DUMBARTN
MOCCASIN
OAKDLTID
TUOLUMN
CRTEZ
PINEER
HILMAR
MTEDEN
OWENSTAP
OWNBRKWY
CARTWRT
MARITIME
LEPRINO
SAFEWAY
OI GLASS
EBMUDGRY
FIBRJCT2
FIBRJCT1
FIBRBJCT
FIBREBRD
DOMTAR
AEC_TP2
AEC_JCT
SFWY_TP2
AEC_300
AEC_TP1
S FW Y_ TP 1 G WF TR AC Y
OWENSTP1
OWENSTP2
TCHRTJCT
TCHRT_T2TCHRT_T1
TCYMP1
TCYMP2
TESTAB12
TRAMAX11
LSESTRS
N_LVMORE
VINEYD_D
VINEYARD
SLACTAP2
EDESTAP1
EDES
EDSGRNT
ELPT_SJ1
ELPT_SJ2
LSESTRS
NORTHERN
NUMI TAP
NUMI JCT
SANPAULA
UALTAP
ELELP11
EVRMTC21
LSNWK11
LSNWK12
LSNWK13
METLS11
METLS12
METLS13
MORSTA11
MORSTA21
MORSTA31
MORSTA41
MTCEVR11
NEWNEW11
SANMAR11
SANMAR12
SANPIT11
SN ELP11
BURLNGME
CALMEC
DUBLIN
WTLR
Eastern Interconnection
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29
1.50
0.75
0.00
–0.75
–1.50
WTLR
Eastern Interconnection
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30
Towards a Locational Value
• Determination of locations where newgeneration would enhance security needs to
be combined with availability and
economics of energy resources.• Valuation requires monetizing the security
benefits.
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31
Towards a Locational Value
• GIS spatial analysis techniques are neededto determine feasible generation
alternatives for each location in a large-
scale system.
$
MWcost of least-cost alternativei ijc g
Based on existing energy potential and
technology, a least-cost alternative can be
determined for each location.
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33
Security-Penetration Curves
• Once a set of proposed sites is defined, theeffect of simultaneous distributed injectionswith different levels of penetration can be
simulated using security-penetration curves.
• The effectiveness of the solution is affected
for large injections due to: – Local transfer capability of the grid
– Reversed flows
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34
Security-Penetration Curves
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0 650 1300 2000 New Generation
SysAMWCO in 2005
69
500
115
230
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35
Policy Analysis
• A fundamental goal of integrated electricitysystems is to ensure dependable supply tocustomers.
• This goal cannot be achieved if the systemconsistently exhibits overloaded elements andcongestion.
• System AMWCO can be utilized to:
– Evaluate system security for different seasons/years – Design policy goals regarding security
• Can use security-penetration curves
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36
Policy Analysis
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
New Generation
AMWCO2007 2005 2003
Indicates how much generation
is needed to maintain the current
level of reliability.
Approx. 500MW every two years
(at strategic locations)
NewGen
AMWCO
Indicates the effect of new generation
Approx. -3.5 MWCO/MW Installed
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37
Policy Analysis
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
New Generation
AMWCO2007 2005 2003
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
New Generation
AMWCO2007 2005 2003
Generation needed to maintain
the current level of reliability.
Generation needed in the next two
years (2005) to solve the problems
by 2017. Approx. 950MW
7300
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Integrated Model
Power Flow
Model
Weak Element
Ranking
Spatial Rep. of
New Generation
Contingency Analysis
Energy
Resources
Maps of Energy Potential
List of Proposed SitesSecurity
Indices
GenerationExpansion
Security-
Penetration
Curves
WTLR Calculation
GIS Spatial Overlay
TransmissionExpansion
Transmission
Policy
Energy
Policy
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