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Metabolic Transitions in Portugal
Paulo FerrãoIN+ - Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy ResearchIST - Instituto Superior Técnicohttp://in3.dem.ist.utl.pt
FLAD, Innovation and Productivity for Portugal
2002, June, 26th
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MotivationMotivation
Understanding the Economy metabolism, through Materials Flows Analysis, may contribute to formulate sustainable policies at a national, regional and sectoral level.Is the Portuguese economy a transitional economy, in transition ?
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Portuguese DataPortuguese Data
Spatial boundary: Continental Portugal and Azores and Madeira ArchipelagosYears: 1960 to 1998Sources: DMI: National Statistic Institute (INE)
Geological and Mining Institute (IGM)Forestery Agency (DGF)
Population, GDP: OECD’s National Accounts publications
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Portuguese DMI: DataPortuguese DMI: Data
DMI categories: Imported
Metals and its products
Wood, cork and its products
Products from chemical industry and other industries
Food, beverage products
Vegetable products
Live animals and animal products
Other
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Non-renewable: Fuel ores Metallic ores Stone, clay, sand Non-metallic ores Marine salt
Renewable: Agricultural crops Grazing Forest (wood, cork) Fishing, Hunting Honey, Beeswax
Portuguese DMI: DataPortuguese DMI: Data
DMI categories:
Domestic
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Portuguese Economy: IMPORTSPortuguese Economy: IMPORTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Food and agricultural products Mineral fuels. lubricantsChemical products Leather manufac.wood. cork and paperTextiles. clothing and footwear Metal ores and metals (except iron)Machinery Transport equipmentOthers
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Portuguese Economy: ExportsPortuguese Economy: Exports
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Food and agricultural products Mineral fuels, lubricantsChemical products Wood, cork and paperLeather manuf, leather and textiles Clothing and footwearMetal ores and metals (except iron) MachineryTransport equipment Others
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Source : Portuguese Environmental Report, 1999
Portuguese Economy: Imports and ExportsPortuguese Economy: Imports and Exports
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The Portuguese case studyThe Portuguese case study
Adapted from Bringezu and Schütz, 2000, Total Material Requirement of the European Union, European Environment Agency, Technical report No 55.
(1988-1997)
We are in transition!
What type?
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Portuguese DMI: EvolutionPortuguese DMI: Evolution
1998 DMI: 174 million ton, 18 ton per capitaSignificative growth 1960-1998: 483% per capita
“We need revolution, not evolution”, ...may be.
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Portuguese DMI: Domestic/ImportedPortuguese DMI: Domestic/Imported
• Almost all non-renewable domestic extraction is due to Rock, Clay and Clay extraction for construction
•Imports: mainly fossil fuels
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Domestic DMI(1000 t)
1960 1970 1980 1990 1998
Non-renewable 5298,4 14789,1 40665,3 50205,1 94109,4 Ores 1673,7 1462,9 1222,7 1825,6 1278,6
Stone, clay, sand 3357,9 13119,0 39225,0 48275,0 92751,8
Marine salt 266,8 207,2 217,6 104,5 79,0
Renewable 21700 23562,8 23566 26810,9 30725,2 Plant 21340,8 23192,5 23287,1 26492,2 30511,9
Animal 359,2 370,3 278,9 318,7 213,3
Total 26998,5 38351,9 64231,4 77015,9 124834,7
Portuguese DMI: Domestic contr.Portuguese DMI: Domestic contr.
Domestic materials: Stone, clay, sand Biomass
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IN+ Portuguese Transition, based on rock, clay and sand
Portuguese Transition, based on rock, clay and sand
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Total DMI Domestic DMI - Rock, Clay and Sand Imports Exports
Here is the impact of revolutions, and why there is transition
BAU
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Decomposition analysis: Malaska (1998)*
Material Flows InteractionsMaterial Flows Interactions
EMP
MF
POP
EMPPOPMF Sustainability and
Employment Identity
GDP
MF
POP
GDPPOPMF
Sustainability and Production Identity
* Moll, 1999, Reducing Societal Metabolism. A Sustainable Development Analysis
Sustainable development associated to MF < 0
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Contributions calculated by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method (Chung and Rhee, 2000)*:
Residual-free DMI decompositionResidual-free DMI decomposition
* A Residual-free Decomposition of the Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions
000
ln)(ln)(ln)(
GDPMF
GDPMF
L
POPGDP
POPGDP
LPOP
POPLMF ttt
0
0
ln)(
MFMF
MFMFL
t
t
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DMI variation for each temporal period (%) Contributions 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-1998 POP 1,3 15,2 1,5 0,9 GDP/POP 75,3 47,0 31,6 30,2 DMI/GDP -24,5 13,4 -1,4 27,2 DMI 52,2 75,6 31,7 58,2 POP 1,3 15,2 1,5 0,9 EMP/POP 4,2 3,5 16,8 -1,4 DMI/EMP 46,6 56,9 13,3 58,7 Note: Percent variation referring to the value of DMI in the first year of each period. GDP at constant prices.
DMI DecompositionDMI Decomposition
• DMI increases in each periodProduction equation:
Main effect: GDP/POP increases
DMI/GDP decreases in 1960 and 1980 decades
Employment equation: Main effect: DMI/EMP increases
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1985-1996
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Denmark Finland France Greece Irland Italy Portugal Spain Sw eden UK
DMI/GDP
DMI
DMI/EMP
International disaggregationInternational disaggregation
Employment in construction
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IN+ International ComparisonsImports and Exports vs. DMIInternational Comparisons
Imports and Exports vs. DMI
Source: Fischer-Kowalski, M. & Amann, C. (2001) in Population and Environment, Vol. 23, n.1
Portugal
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
GDP per capita
(%, s
hare
DM
I)
Imports (% DMI) Exports (% DMI)
No ?
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DMI vs. GDPDMI vs. GDP
Source: Fischer-Kowalski, M. & Amann, C. (2001) in Population and Environment, Vol. 23, n.1
Well, coherently growing...
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IN+A transitional economy: Material IntensityA transitional economy: Material IntensityPortugal
050
100150200250300350400450500
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
(196
0=10
0)
DMI GDP (US$, 1990) Material intensity (DMI/GDP)
Source: Fischer-Kowalski, M. & Amann, C. (2001) in Population and Environment, Vol. 23, n.1
Yes ?
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CO2 originCO2 origin
• The fuel consumption in Portugal is especially made by petroleum derivates
• In 1997, natural gas was introduced
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Input-Output AnalysisDirect and indirect costs of the most important sectors to fulfil the total demand in 1993 and 1995
Input-Output AnalysisDirect and indirect costs of the most important sectors to fulfil the total demand in 1993 and 1995
1. Textile & clothing industry
2. Construction
3. Transport vehicles and equipment
4. Agriculture & hunting
5. Chemical products
6. Non-commercial services of Public Administration
7. Financial services
8. Services rendered for companies
9. Petroleum
10.Restaurants & Hotels
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Econom ic Sectors
0
4000
8000
12000
10
6 E
uro
s
Ind irect 93D irect 93
Ind irect 95D irect 95
20
2123
19
22
24
3030
68
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GNP and GWP per economic sector for the years of 1993 and 1995
GNP and GWP per economic sector for the years of 1993 and 1995
1. Textile & clothing industry
2. Construction
3. Transport vehicles and equipment
4. Agriculture & hunting
5. Chemical products
6. Non-commercial services of Public Administration
7. Financial services
8. Services rendered for companies
9. Petroleum
10.Restaurants & Hotels
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Econom ic Sector
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Pe
rcen
tage
G NP & G W P x SectorG N PG W P
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Environmental sustainability of the sectors (increase of GNP versus increase of GWP)
Environmental sustainability of the sectors (increase of GNP versus increase of GWP)
1. Textile & clothing industry
2. Construction
3. Transport vehicles and equipment
4. Agriculture & hunting
5. Chemical products
6. Financial services
7. Services rendered for companies
8. Petroleum
9. Restaurants & Hotels
-40 -20 0 20 40% G NP
-40
-20
0
20
40
% G
WP
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
Total
Strong Sustainability
Non-sustainable
W eak Sustainability
GAMC – 5th Course: Global Automotive Technology
IN+ FLAME MORPHOLOGY
r
V~
V~
x
V~
U~
r
p-
x
)v"u" (
r
"w~ -
r
)"v~ (r
r
1
22
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IN+ From Turbulence to MFAFrom Turbulence to MFA
The large scales transport energy.Stretching promotes faster, smaller and dissipative eddies.Stretching occurs in shear layers, detemined by velocity gradients.
The large scales transport materials, promote stocks().Market promotes local, faster flows where materials dispersion occurs.Dissipation and recyclability is determined by price, regulatory and cultural gradients.
more complex!
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IN+ Identification of large-scale motionsIdentification of materials motion (e.g. copper)
(metabolism length scales)
Identification of large-scale motionsIdentification of materials motion (e.g. copper)
(metabolism length scales)
-12000
-8000
-4000
0
4000
8000
12000
2D
3D
4D
r/d
-3 0 3
Uconv=36.5m/s
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IN+ Time series analysisPhysical Trade Balance (PTB)
Time series analysisPhysical Trade Balance (PTB)
• Physical Trade Balance (PTB) = Imports - Exports
• The Mineral products imported are essentially fuels
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Domestic Material Consumption (DMC)Domestic Material Consumption (DMC)
• Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) = DMI - Exports
• Almost all the material inputs in the Portuguese economy are for domestic consumption
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DPO to air (CO2) and to land (MSW) compared to DMI
DPO to air (CO2) and to land (MSW) compared to DMI
DMI ~DMC, is substantially bigger than DPO to air (CO2) and to land (MSW), and since CO2 emissions are normally the major part of the total DPO, probably a great part of the material inputs are accumulating in stocks (in this case, infrastructures)
Addition to stock
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IN+ Dynamic analysis, auto and cross correlations in time seriesDynamic analysis, auto and cross correlations in time series
Metabolism time scale, from infraestructure to use
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LCALCA
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12G
reen
hous
e
Ozo
ne
Aci
dific
atio
n
Eutr
ophi
catio
n
Hea
vy m
etal
s
Car
cino
geny
Win
ter
smog
Sum
mer
sm
og
Pest
icid
es
Ener
gy
Sol
id w
aste
Use
End of life
Production
LCA MPV Case Study (IST data)
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Design-Environment InteractionsDesign-Environment Interactions
Design
Production
Elv Processing
Use
TechnologicalSolutions
MaterialsSelection
Recyclability
Power TrainTechnology
Pollutants Emissions
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EU DIRECTIVE PROPOSAL ON ELVEU DIRECTIVE PROPOSAL ON ELV
Recovery
Disposal
VEHICLE M1, N1
Re-use
ELV Treatment
ELV Collection
ELV
USE
Recycling
85% (2006) 95% (2015)
80% (2006)85% (2015)
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ELV processing infrastructureELV processing infrastructure
Dismantler
Hulk
Shredder
Landfill
Manufacturer
Raw material producers
Re-use
Siderurgy
Foundry
Steel
Non-ferr met..ASR
Energy recovery
Fluids
Glass
Plastics
Rubber
Cables
RecyclingComponents
Component suppliers
Raw material producers
Component suppliers
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Current recycling effectivenessCurrent recycling effectiveness
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%C
hass
is
Bod
y C
ompl
ete
Pow
er tr
ain
Ele
ctric
Sea
ts &
Trim
s
% t
ota
l ca
r w
eig
ht Lead
Copper
Aluminum
Glass
Rubber
Plastics
SteelRR R RR
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Steel11%
Plastics47%
Rubber9%
Glass33%
Contributions to LandfillContributions to Landfill
Steel4%Rubber
26%
Plastics70%
Chassis16%
Body Complete
35%Electric
7%
Seats & Trims35%
Power train7%
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Construção de Produtos Optimizando a Reciclagem.Caixa do filtro de ar do BMW Z3.
Construção de Produtos Optimizando a Reciclagem.Caixa do filtro de ar do BMW Z3.
Pesquisa & Desenvolvimento
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IN+ Reciclagem na Produção.Consola Central do BMW Série 5.
Reciclagem na Produção.Consola Central do BMW Série 5.
- Material: ABS + PC.
- Quota de Reciclados: 100% mat. moído ou 20% mat. reciclado sem laca.
- Quantidade: aprox. 200 t/a.
Pesquisa & Desenvolvimento
O plástico é injectado e recebe uma película sobre a superfície.
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forRecycling
FragmentadorCarcaçaVFV
Iner
tes
pesa
dos
Mat
eria
ls p
ara
reci
clag
em
Peç
as p
ara
reut
iliza
ção
Desmantelador
Separador metais não ferrosos
Met
ais
ferr
osos
Iner
tes
“lev
es”
Iner
tes
Metais não ferrosos
Plá
stic
os
Separador de ASR
Vid
ros
ResíduosAterro
Incineração
Subs
tânc
ias
tóxi
cas
ABCD
BCD
BDBC
ABCD
P1 = -7
c1 = 2
P2 = -6
P3 = -3 P4 = -1.5
P5 = -3.5 P6 = -1.5 P7 = 2.5 P8 = 4
c2 = 1.5 c3 = 1.5
c4 = 1 c5 = 1.5
ABCD
BCD
BDBC
ABCD
P1 = -7
c1 = 2
P2 = -6
P3 = -3 P4 = -1.5
P5 = -3.5 P6 = -1.5 P7 = 2.5 P8 = 4
c2 = 1.5 c3 = 1.5
c4 = 1 c5 = 1.5
ELV processing infra-estrutucture
Optimization model for ELV processing
Minimum cost fulfilling regulatory requirements
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ConclusionsConclusions
1960-1998: Significative DMI growth, no absolute dematerialization.DMI originated mainly from domestic environmentStrong dependence on Stone, clay and sand, associated to infrastructures development.Transitional Economy in some indicators, material intensity.Two complementary approaches to analyze time and length scales of the economy metabolism.Ecodesign may contribute to this aim, either environmentally and economically
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