Zero to Future in 8 Hours: a foresight research example

July 2009

From Zero to Future in 8 Hours:An Example of Futures Research

UH Certificate in Strategic Foresight

Cody Clark

Cody ClarkJuly 20092

The Working Example

Domain: Rapid Manufacturing, 3-D printing, etc.

Client’s perspective: Want some context on a new technology to evaluate a potential investment proposal

Sharing a small portion of the first pass


Alternative FuturesAlternative Futures

History• Previous eras,

discontinuities• Current “era,”

most recent discontinuities

History• Previous eras,

discontinuities• Current “era,”

most recent discontinuities

ImpactsImplications

Strategic concernsOpportunities

Challenges

ImpactsImplications

Strategic concernsOpportunities

Challenges

GoalsGoals

UncertaintiesUncertainties

Current conditions• STEEP• Stakeholders,

Customers, Competitors

Current conditions• STEEP• Stakeholders,

Customers, Competitors

Baseline FutureBaseline Future

Forces of change• ongoing trends• announced plans• potential events• emerging issues• new ideas

Forces of change• ongoing trends• announced plans• potential events• emerging issues• new ideas

}}}}}}}}

InitiativesInitiatives

StrategiesStrategies

Futures Research Loads The Initial Foresight Framework


Research Strategy: What to Seek

1. Find the Center- Terminology, Experts, Authoritative Sources, History, Standard

Measures and Current Values

2. Find the Edges- Research Centers, Discussions, Blogs, “Fringe” Elements

3. Find the “Ecosystem” (Transactional Environment)- Applications, Market, Customers, Suppliers, Enabling

Technologies, Competitors

4. Find the Future1. Assess the “velocity” of the domain2. Catch people talking about the future3. Discern trends from your own research


Start learning with some basic scanning Modes of Scanning*

- Undirected Viewing – gather general information just to be informed (“sensing”)

- Conditioned Viewing – gathering general information and assessing its relevance to the organization (“sense-making”)

- Informal Searching – actively seeking specific information in an unstructured way (“learning”)

- Formal Searching – actively seeking specific information using formal methods for specific purposes (“deciding”)

Want to sample some unstructured information, informal learning Because Google is just too convenient. Get it out of your system.

*Source: P Hayward, Swinburne University of Technology from Choo, 2003


Initial Learning on an Unfamiliar Topic

<subject> AND “Introduction To”<subject> AND “Tutorial”“Guide To” <subject><subject> AND (Taxonomy OR Ontology)

Children's’ section of the library


Finding a Tutorial


A place to explore


Helpful summary table


Now we need to get serious… Modes of Scanning*

- Undirected Viewing – gather general information just to be informed (“sensing”)

- Conditioned Viewing – gathering general information and assessing its relevance to the organization (“sense-making”)

- Informal Searching – actively seeking specific information in an unstructured way (“learning”)

- Formal Searching – actively seeking specific information using formal methods for specific purposes (“deciding”)

Want to start formal research, with authoritative sources, corroboration, etc.

Google is not sufficient

*Source: P Hayward, Swinburne University of Technology from Choo, 2003


Search Strategy: Where to Seek Start with the Library Reference Section!- Encyclopedias, Handbooks- Reference Librarian- Controlled Vocabulary- Databases (EBSCO, etc.)- Citation Reference

Start with mainstream sources by journalists or general interest writers.

Then use the Internet


Using Big Heavy Books to Stand On No articles on domain in general encyclopaedias or subject encyclopaedias Reference Librarian pointed me to Applied Technology section Found McGraw-Hill Machining and Metalworking Handbook, 3rd ed. Chapter

10 on Solid Freeform Fabrication (2006)- Written by Denis Cormier, Director of Integrated Manufacturing systems Engineering

Institute, SME Young Manufacturing Engineer Award winner- More formal terms (Solid Freeform Fabrication) and basic taxonomy- Started basic mind map – inputs, technologies, outputs, applications- Found summary of basic technologies and confirmed the online summary- Foundational Technology Pioneers – 3D Systems, Stratsys, Z Systems, Arcan AB- Verified the basic measures or dimensions of the field (cost per unit at low volume, part

size, finish, accuracy, part complexity, etc.)- Additional technology leads “electron beam melting,” “direct-metal”- Mentioned the work of Bathsheba Grossman, artist (?)


Search Strategy: How to Seek Traditional Snowball Search

- Start with article, record keywords, sources- Move to each referenced source and do same, recursively- Moves “backward” through literature

Citation Search- Start with article, record keywords, sources- Find all articles that reference the article and do the same, recursively- Moves “forward” through literature

Use Expand – Contract Cycles- EXPAND – Gather many references and keywords and ideas- CONTRACT – Look for patterns, select best keywords and ideas, move forward

with reduced list- REPEAT. Each cycle is a “pass,” or session.


Denis Cormier led to the SME


The SME sponsors the RAPID 2009


RAPID 2009 lists key resources

Corroboration. Where we started with informal

learning

An annual report with an executive summary? Sounds expensive.


Source for the “Official Future”

Don’t have $500? Start

with the freebies.


Pareto Principle for Foresight Research

80% of the benefit can be achieved with 20% of the effort. Chase down leads that look most important. You can always come back on another

pass.

Be

nefit

Cost/Time

80%

This last 20% may be justified in a deep-dive for a critical question

For initial research, this will do


Finding the Future

We’ve got three authoritative sources to fill in most of the current conditions

Now, to “Find the Future”1. Assess the “velocity” of the domain – Go back through your

sources and compare relative dates

2. Catch people talking about the future – Search looking for speculative conversations or mine existing forecasts

3. Discern trends from your own research – Draw documented conclusions from patterns you observe during research


Sources for Topic-Based Scanners Portals/Aggregators

- Citeulike, Eurekalert!, Hubmed, Technorati, del.icio.us, Twitter, LinkedIn….

Weblogs/Specialist Community Sites- SciTech Daily, Slashdot…

Specialized Search Engines- Citeseer, Scirus, Google Scholar, SciNet, PSIGate

Find the scanners for your domain


Catch People Talking about the Future to Identify Trends and Potential Events

Futures “additive” keywords that “catch” people talking about the future.

“of the future” “of tomorrow” “implications” AND “emerging” “long term” “trend” “by the year” “vision” “scenario” “wildcard” “sea change” “the next * years” “2020” “2030” “crossroads” “dilemma”


Rapid Manufacturing AND “of the future”


Rapid Manufacturing AND “2030”


Detecting Forces of Change

Internal: Look for incremental change in key domain variables and current conditions Survey the research efforts. What variables are they trying to improve? Survey the vendors. What variables do they claim differentiate their new

products?

External: Look for changes in the environment that might affect/interact with the domain Nanotechnology Increasing the variety and sophistication of available

RM materials Recession Slowing the “boom”


Product Release Example

Increases volume and speed for lower-cost

unit. Incremental

Change.


Research/Application Example

Large scale version of

RM to “print” entire

houses. Novel

Application.


Trends in Rapid Manufacturing

Incremental improvements in key domain variables, especially size, cost, quality, and final accuracy. Moving toward parts that can be used directly in production.

Increasing complexity, intricacy of possible designs, extending to multiple simultaneous materials

Increase in the varieties of materials that can be used and therefore the variety of applications

Low-end technologies are enabling an enthusiast class of user (artists, hobbyists)

Increasing automation of the Rapid Manufacturing process


Larger Forces Interacting With The Rapid Manufacturing Domain To Imply Interesting Potential Futures

Nanotechnology Mass-customization Distributed Production Collaboration Disintermediation Robotics and AI Intellectual Property/Piracy Issues


Thank You

MerciGrazie

Gracias

Obrigado

Danke

Japanese

English

French

Russian

German

Italian

Spanish

Brazilian Portuguese

Arabic

Traditional Chinese

Simplified Chinese

Hindi

Tamil

Thai

Korean

Zero to Future in 8 Hours: a foresight research example

Technology

Transcript of Zero to Future in 8 Hours: a foresight research example