Zero Carbon Options: Report launch
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Transcript of Zero Carbon Options: Report launch
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There is good newsA fully decarbonised, energy rich world is in reach... Power, water, food and development for a world of 10 billion – plus means to protect, maintain and restore a bio-rich planet
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But we have serious policy problems
Australia forms strategy based on this graph
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The problem actually looks like this
• Greenhouse gas accumulates• Temperature forcing builds• Tipping points are real
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20100
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
GHG accumulation from Australian electricity sector 1990-2010 (Adapted from AGEIS data)
tCO2-e
Carbon Budget
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The pathway matters as much as the destination
Avoided emissions
Nuclear mimics fossil – but without the GHGBut nuclear power is prohibited in Australia
Selecting “No” delivers an inferior result
Would this be clear in a comparative energy case study?
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Zero Carbon Options: The Task
• Replace coal power stations at Pt Augusta: Northern and Playford– 740 MW– Responsible for over 5 million tCO2-e every year– 4,650 GWhs per year (Fully dispatchable i.e. available whenever it is
wanted)
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Option 1: Reference Renewable Solution – Solar and Wind Hybrid
Energy Source Technology Generation Rating
Assumed Annual Generation
Solar Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) power towers with heliostat mirror fields and molten salt energy storage
Six modules760 MW total
2,810 GWh total
Wind Enercon E-126 turbines 95 turbines at 7.5 MW each for 712.5 MW
1,840 GWh total
Source: BZE 2012
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Option 2: Reference Nuclear Solution
Energy Source Technology Generation Rating
Nuclear 1 x Enhanced CANDU 6 (EC6) pressurised heavy water reactor
1 module at 690 MWe net
Source: ThinkClimate Consulting and Bown and Pang 2012
Two CANDU 6 reactors at Qinshan, China
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The CriteriaFinancial/ Economic• Capital cost• Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)• Requirement for transmission network upgrade• Lifespan• Capacity factor• Reliability
Environmental• Greenhouse gas emissions abatement• Water consumption• Land area• Major construction material requirements• Operational waste
Social• Job creation
$
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Capital Cost
Criteria Renewable Solar CST
Renewable Wind
Renewable: Combined
Nuclear EC6
Capital Cost $6.7 billion $1.4 billion $8.1 billion $3.5 billion - $4.8 billion
•No capital cost provided in reference renewable solution• “Requirement for $5 billion in public funding for 25%
balance of financing” for the solar component (BZE 2012)• Low range estimate of $2,000 per kW installed for onshore
wind in South Australia
•Nuclear: three sources for potential costs up to 2030• Highly inclusive cost• $5,000 - $7,000 per kW net generation capacity
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Levelised cost of electricity
Criteria Renewable Solar CST
Renewable Wind
Renewable: Combined
Nuclear EC6
LCOE $250-$300/ MWh
$90-$110 MWh - $101-$138
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Greenhouse gas emissions abatement
Criteria Renewable Solar CST
Renewable Wind
Renewable: Combined
Nuclear EC6
GHG Abatement
- - 2 million – 5 million tCO2-e/year
5.36 million tCO2-e/year
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LifespanCST: Low global experience
Collection and storage components may differ to generation components
Wind: Significant global experience and confident ratingsNuclear: Significant global experience. Specific rating for EC6
Criteria Renewable Solar CST
Renewable Wind
Renewable: Combined
Nuclear EC6
Lifespan Assumed 25 years
25 years - Rated 60 years
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Operational WasteEssentially zero for reference renewable solutionReference nuclear solution generates spent nuclear fuelSingle EC6 generates 104 t spent fuel per yearStored on-site in MACSTOR
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Operational Waste
Criteria Renewable Solar CST
Renewable Wind
Renewable: Combined
Nuclear EC6
Operational Waste
- - - 6,250 t spent fuel, MACSTOR over 9,500 m2
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GEH S-PRISM 311 MWe IFR module
“Study finds waste-fuelled reactor feasible for UKThe report includes a vote of confidence by analysts DBD Ltd, which says that in terms of fuel fabrication, reactor operation, and fuel storage, there are "no fundamental impediments" to licensability in the UK.July 2012
Future Fuel in Fast Reactor
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Land Use
1,360 MWe Nuclear, Qinshan China 350 MWe solar, USA (SEGS)
Criteria Renewable Solar CST
Renewable Wind
Renewable: Combined
Nuclear EC6
Land area 16 km2 exclusive
2.1 km2 exclusive, 175 km2 non-exclusive
18.1 km2 exclusive, 191 km2 non-exclusive
2 km2 exclusive
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Water Consumption
Criteria Renewable Solar CST
Renewable Wind
Renewable: Combined
Nuclear EC6
Water use 0.74 GL fresh - 0.74 GL fresh -
No water Clean water for mirror washing Ocean water for cooling
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Material InputsTechnology Comment Confidence
CST Heliostats only, no towers Fair. Certain underestimate
Wind Good general literature, not specific to Enercon turbine
Good
Nuclear Detailed, extensive estimates for CANDU6 Excellent
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Material InputsCriteria Renewable
Solar CSTRenewable Wind
Renewable: Combined
Nuclear EC6
Material Inputs 295,000 t steel90,000 t glass290,000 t concrete
80,000 t steel300,000 t concrete
375,000 t steel85,000 t glass590,000 t concrete
600,000 t concrete35,000 t steel
Lifespan Assumed 25 years 25 years Rated 60 years
Annual output 2,810 GWh 1,840 GWh 4,650 GWh Up to 5,400 GWh per year
Lifetime output
70,250 GWh 46,000 GWh 116,250 GWh Up to 324,000 GWh
For a significant materials saving, the nuclear reference solution delivers nearly three times the lifetime output of zero -carbon electricity
AP1000 construction USA
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Capacity Factors
Criteria Renewable Solar CST
Renewable Wind
Renewable: Combined
Nuclear EC6
Capacity Factor 40% 30% - Assumed 85%, rated to 90%
Ratio of maximum potential rated output and actual electricity output e.g.
Maximum potential rated output of 7.5 MW wind turbine in 1 year is:7.5 MW x 24 x 365 = 65,700 MWh
If actual output = 21,900 MWh CF = 21,900/65,700CF= 0.33 (33%)
CF speaks to overall variability and intermittency of output, but DOES NOT mean “it only runs 33% of the time”
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Reliability
Criteria Renewable Solar CST
Renewable Wind
Renewable: Combined
Nuclear EC6
Reliability Diminished compared to fossil
Un-diminished compared to fossil
+
-= CO2-e
≠
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Job Creation
Criteria Renewable Solar CST Renewable Wind
Renewable: Combined
Nuclear EC6
Job creation 360 direct permanent operations and maintenance jobs; Approximately 1,300 construction jobs
- - 1,600 construction jobs and up to 520 ongoing operational onsite, offsite and contractor employment opportunities
Both solutions provide a good job-creation outcome
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Network Enhancement
Criteria Renewable Solar CST
Renewable Wind
Renewable: Combined Nuclear EC6
Network enhancement
- Minimal enhancement for project connection, enhancement for larger renewable pathway
Minimal enhancement for local connection. Connection barrier based on size of single generating unit
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Existing global and local capacity
Operable Reactors
GWe Reactors under construction
GWe On order or planned
GWe
433 372 65 65 158 175
Source: World Nuclear Association 2012
Nuclear: Nationally significantGlobally manageable, technologically unremarkable
Solar CST: Largest single facility in the world (by far)76 times bigger than largest Australian solar
Wind: 58% increase in wind capacity in South Australia
World’s largest solar, 350 MW (no storage)
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We have optionsThis option could mean:
•10% more greenhouse gas abatement per year...
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We have optionsThis option could mean:
•For about half the capital cost...
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We have optionsThis option could mean:
•Providing significantly cheaper electricity...
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We have optionsThis option could mean:
•That is completely reliable...
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We have optionsThis option could mean:
•Consuming far less land area...
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We have optionsThis option could mean:
•And no fresh water...
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We have optionsThis option could mean:
•Requiring less material resources to build...
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We have optionsThis option could mean:
•With over double the lifespan...
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We have optionsThis option could mean:
•That uses our local fuel source...
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We have optionsThis option could mean:
•And provides high-tech jobs...
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We have optionsThis option could mean:
•Deploying commercially mature technology
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We have optionsThis option could mean:•10% more greenhouse gas abatement per year...•For about half the capital cost...•Providing significantly cheaper electricity...•That is completely reliable...•Consuming far less land area...•And no fresh water...•Requiring less material resources to build...•With over double the lifespan...•That uses our local fuel source...•And provides high-tech jobs...•Deploying commercially mature technology
Are we ready to put this option on the table?
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