Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World
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Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World Can Renewables Supply the Future Energy Needs of: • The World? • Europe? • Individual EU Countries? • What Might a Renewable Future Look Like? Godfrey Boyle Professor of Renewable Energy, The Open University Royal Society of Arts, London February 10th 2011
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Godfrey Boyle Professor of Renewable Energy, The Open University Royal Society of Arts, London February 10th 2011. Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World. Can Renewables Supply the Future Energy Needs of: The World? Europe? Individual EU Countries? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World
Zero Carbon Britain in a Zero Carbon World
Can Renewables Supply the Future Energy Needs of:
• The World? • Europe?• Individual EU
Countries?• What Might a
Renewable Future Look Like?
Godfrey BoyleProfessor of Renewable Energy, The Open University
Royal Society of Arts, London February 10th 2011
Can Renewables Power the World?Jacobson & Delucci, Stanford
University, Scientific American 2009 & Energy Policy 2011
World Power Demand by 2030: 11.5-16.9 TW (c.f. 16 TW now)
Supplied by:
WIND: 3.8 million wind turbines
SOLAR: 1,700 milllion rooftop PV systems; 49,000 Concentrating Solar plants
PV 40,000 Large Plants
WATER: 490,000 tidal turbines
WAVE: 720,000 Wave plants
HYDRO 900 Large Plants
Geothermal: 5,350 Plants
C.f. world production of cars & light trucks: 73 million/yr
Greenpeace Energy [R]Evolution & Reference Scenarios[R]Evolution in 2050: Renewables >80% of (Reduced) Demand
WWF Energy Report 2011• 95% of World
Energy Renewable by 2050
• Detailed Analysis & Scenarios by Ecofys
Energy Establishment Catches Up? IEA Blue Map & High Renewables Scenarios
In IEA Blue Map Scenario Renewables supply 48% of World Electricity in 2050
In IEA BLUE hi REN Scenario Variant, Renewables Supply 75% of World Electricity by 2050
Can Renewables Power Europe? European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) 2050 Scenario
• Renewables Provide c.95% of EU Final Energy by 2050
European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050 Report, 2010
Various
Pathways to
40%-100%
Energy from
Renewables
by 2050Authors:
Mc Kinsey Imperial College Oxford Economics
KEMA, ECF
What Could it Look Like?Energy REvolution Vision• Supergrid Linking
EU & North Africa• Wind & Solar are
Complementary• Smart Grids in
Cities• Local Mini
& Micro Grids
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Coping with Variability: Combining Regional Demands Reduces Volatility
Big Monthly and Daily Variations for Individual Countries (Grey)
Variations Greatly Reduced When Combined (Green)
Renewable & Energy-Efficient Cities & Suburbs
• Low Energy Buildings, Old and New
• Roofs and Facades Produce Power & Heat
• Local Combined Heat & Power Plants
Low/Zero Carbon Scenarios for Individual European Countries• UK: Zero Carbon Britain: 100%
by 2030. c.f. UK Climate Committee: 60% by 2030, 80% by 2050
• ?Mark Barrett SeeScen Model?• Germany: Ministry of
Environment & Nature Conservation (BMU) Report =>
• Denmark. Danish Society of Engineers, 2009
• Danish Climate Commission, 2010
• Scenarios for Spain, France, Finland, Turkey etc..
Danish Climate Commission Report 2010• Fossil fuels phased out: 100% renewable energy by 2050
• www.open.ac.uk
• Total costs similar to to conventional
energy incl. fuel• Job creation• No/low carbon
& pollutant emissions
• Energy Security• Technology exists• But Strong
Political Commitment Required!
Conclusion: Renewables Can Supply World’s Energy Needs by 2050
