Zen and the Science of Problem Solving -...

Zen and the Science

of Problem Solving

Richard Shainin

Executive Vice Presidentwww.Shainin.com

http://www.shainin.com/

Copyright © 2015, Red X Holdings LLC, a Shainin Company.

All rights reserved.

Zen

Zen is contemplation.

It is enlightenment achieved through meditation.



Structured Problem Solving

Lean Management:

Is a (production) practice that considers the expenditure of resources for any goal other than

the creation of value for the end customer as wasteful, and thus a target for elimination. 1)

Principles for Lean Management 2) :

1) www.wikipedia.com2) www.tqm.com

Continuous Improvement

Eliminate Waste

Customer Orientated

Avo

id F

ail

ure

s

Syn

ch

ron

ize

Pro

cesses

Level

ou

t

Pro

du

cti

on

Sta

nd

ard

ize

Pro

cesses

Imp

rove

Pro

du

cti

on

En

ab

le

Em

plo

yees

Definition Lean Management



Knowledge ≠ Understanding

Backwards Brain Bicycle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFzDaBzBlL0&noredirect=1



Challenges in Problem Solving

Performance Gap Rationale:

Ignore

Problem

Address

Problem




Juran’s Trivial Many

… no impact on end user.

… minimal contribution to waste.

… impacting arbitrary internal metrics.

Problems that should be ignored

Historical disasters…

… O ring burn through on space shuttle rockets (Challenger).

… Foam collision with protective heat shield tiles (Columbia).

… Packaging of sub-prime loans into equities with perceived low risk.

Problems that should not have been ignored

Problems that should not be ignored

Disasters waiting to happen…

… America’s failing infrastructure.

… Banks that are too big to fail.

… Internet security.




Performance Gap

Small Impact

Unpleasant

Delayed Impact

Political Consequences

Rationale:

Ignore

Problem

Address

Problem




Performance Gap

Long Term Impact

Rationale:

Ignore

Problem

Address

Problem

Deploy

Workaround

Improve

System




A workaround is a bypass of a recognized

problem in a system. A workaround is typically a

temporary fix that implies that a genuine solution to

the problem is needed. Workarounds are frequently

as creative as true solutions, involving outside the box

thinking in their creation. *

Using Workarounds

*) www.Wikipedia.com




Performance Gap

Long Term Impact

Rationale:

Ignore

Problem

Address

Problem

Deploy

Workaround

Improve

System

Expedient

No Control Over System




Pro: Temporary workarounds …

… buy time to find hidden root causes to eventually improve the system.

… demonstrate resourcefulness and an organizational commitment to

“doing whatever it takes” to meet a goal.

… put us back in control in spite of the obstacles that life puts in our way.

Cautions: Workarounds to systems you control…

… add waste.

… should be temporary while a system improvement is developed.

… might encourage starting problem solving at the solution stage rather than

finding root cause

Using Workarounds




Performance Gap

Long Term Impact

Rationale:

Ignore

Problem

Address

Problem

Deploy

Workaround

Improve

System

Expedient

No Control Over System

One Time

Event

Temporary

Fix

Ongoing

Change

Workarounds increase

waste.

They avoid the

consequences

associated with the

original problem.




Performance Gap

Long Term Impact

Rationale:

Ignore

Problem

Address

Problem

Deploy

Workaround

Improve

System

Reduce Waste

Find

Root Cause

Redesign

System

Add Functionality

Retarget Performance




Design Change Process Change

Decrease the variationShift the distribution

Failures

Performance Distribution

Failures


Design changes are sometimes accompanied by negative side effects:

Higher costs

Need to revalidate

New failure modes

No assurance that original problem is truly solved

Change the System




When to use Shainin Problem Solving

Failures


Failures


Causes are not intuitively obvious.

Understanding how to do this is more difficult than just shifting

the entire distribution.

Understand what is driving

this difference

Design Change Process Change

Decrease the variationConventional approach:

shift the variation

Change the System

Shift the distribution




Performance Gap

Diagnose Problem

Source

Rationale:

Redesign

System

Find

Root Cause

What’s

Wrong?

How’s This

Work?

What’s

Different

Quick Fix Explore Known

and Suspect

Factors

Find Hidden

Causes



What’s

wrong?

How’s this work?

What’s different?

Technical

Problem

Permanent problem elimination

Situational fix of the current

Issue

Iterative elimination of

contributing factors

Understanding

the failure


Understanding

the system

Overview Approaches



What’s

wrong?

Brainstorming based

approach

Technical

Problem


Pro

ble

m “

Gre

en

Y“

Ro

ot

Cau

se “

Red

X“

If the problem is “really known” the

duration can be very fast.

Expert Judgment

8D*

„know“ what

the root

cause is

Did it

work?

*) if not combined with other methodology

Overview Approaches

There is a very high risk that this

approach turns into “trial and error”

the duration can get very long.

What’s different?



We are looking at relationships that we

already know.

Can get very complex.

Duration gets very long when complexity

rises. Testing all is no option.

Risk of crossing out the potential causes

because they are “in specification”.

Risk of applying many changes without

knowing which is the right one.

Ro

ot

Cau

se “

Red

X“

What’s

wrong?

How’s this work?

Technical

Problem


Pro

ble

m “

Gre

en

Y“

Root Cause successfully found *

*) only possible, if root cause was on the list

DMAIC (Six Sigma)

Overview Approaches

What’s different?



What’s

wrong?

Brainstorming based

approach

What’s different?

Technical

Problem


Pro

ble

m “

Gre

en

Y“

Ro

ot

Cau

se “

Red

X“

As soon as we have BOBs and

WOWs we know that the Red X is

captured.

The duration is moderate.

FACTUAL has the highest likelihood

that the problem will be completely

solved.

FACTUAL (Shainin)

Overview Approaches



Experience

Based

Approach

Brainstorming Based

Approach

Contrast Based Approach

Technical

Problem


Pro

ble

m “

Gre

en

Y”

Ro

ot

Cau

se “

Red

X”

„know“ what

the root

cause is

Did it

work?

Root Cause successfully found *

*) only possible, if root cause was on the list

Overview Approaches



Passion for Finding Hidden Causes

When complex systems fail to meet expectations there are often

hidden causes at work. Uncovering those hidden causes is essential

for developing sustainable solutions.

Is your problem simple or complex?



1. Investigate

2. Confirm

3. Solve

Three Phases

Solving Complex Problems




Complexity of a System

Effort

for

Solv

ing t

he P

roble

m

Experience Based

Approach

Effort for Different Approaches




complex systems

Contrast Based Brainstorming Based

Experience Based

known causes

fixes that can be tested easily

simple

systems

process based

problems

fast solution is

needed

results can only be

seen after long time

fixes are expensive

experience

based did not

work at the

1st shot

many things are not

as they should be

it does not matter when we fail

limited parts

available

lots of parts

available

Methodology Selection




Why engineers are comfortable with making design changes

to fix problems.

Risk of

Unknown

Difficulty to Understand

Cause/Effect

Design

Change

Approach

Causal

Understanding

of Variation

ApproachLow

High

Low High



Sponsoring Projects

Results

Strong

Low cost of quality.

Successful product launches.

High throughput.

High customer loyalty.

Frequent product and process changes.

Culture of excuses:

–Perception that defects are inherent in process.

–Lots of activity, inconsistent results.

Unhappy customers.

Problems contained.

Plateau reached, as low hanging fruit is picked clean.

Customer focus, but uneven results.

Solutions are found but not implemented.

Projects drag on.

Personnel turnover is high.

Customers are frustrated.

Weak

EffectiveIneffective



High throughput.


Problems contained.




Projects drag on.




Culture of excuses:



Unhappy customers.

L

E

A

D

E

R

S

H

I

P

Problem Solving Methods



High throughput.


Problems contained.




Projects drag on.




Culture of excuses:



Unhappy customers.



Sponsoring Projects

Ineffective

Methods

Response

LEAN

WASTE

Effective

Methods

Program

Effectiveness

High

Low

Zen and the Science

of Problem Solving

Richard Shainin

Executive Vice Presidentwww.Shainin.com

http://www.shainin.com/

Zen and the Science of Problem Solving -...

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