Yemen Article

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Yemen: The Road to Reconciliation

After much delay, postponement, twist and turns down Yemen's windingrevolutionary road the transition government finally set a date for itsmuch awaited National Dialogue Conference - March 18th, 2013, hoping itwill allow the nation to move beyond old feuds and step into the presentas a strong unit.

While revolutionaries pinned their hopes in 2011 on the fall of the regime,envisioning that a Yemen free from deposed President Ali Abdullah Salehwould magically erased three decades of tyranny, corruption and

injustice; all woke up to a country so rotten away by mis-managementthat it is now on the verge of imploding.Prisoner of its over-lapping, multi-layered crises, Yemen was headingtoward the abyss, a failed state about to fragment into a myriad of pieceswhen the international international stepped in.

It is because world powers understood Yemen held the key to regionalsecurity that they so tirelessly worked at maintaining some level ofstability within its state institutions, forcing revolutionaries and thepolitical opposition to come together and negotiate with the regime the

terms of a transition of power.



Unlike Libya which literally amputated the former regime, ridding itself ofwhat people perceived as a political infection, the Republic of Yemenwould have drawn under the weight of its crises if ever such a breakwould have gone ahead.

While many criticised the GCC-brokered proposal, arguing Saleh escapedthree decades of dictatorship and pillage unscathed, foreign powersestimated peace and regional stability were worth a few concessions.

Riyadh agreement did two things for Yemen:a. One, it allowed then-President Saleh an honorable exit - more thanwhat his Egyptian, Tunisian and Libyan counterparts were ever offered,without wrecking Yemen's territorial and institutional integrity.b. Two, it provided a framework for a political settlement.

However, if Yemen is to be saved from self-destruction, the transitiongovernment will have to rise to the challenge and understand that Yemen,as a nation, needs to come to terms with its autocratic past.Unless answers are given to the nation, old wounds will continue to festeraway and internal conflicts will continue to overshadow change,preventing the birth of a functioning civil state.

For the GCC initiative to serve as a transforming mechanism thattransforms Yemen crisis into sustainable peace and stability, it must befollowed by a resilient and inclusive national reconciliation process. That

reconciliation process must involve all relevant stakeholders andadequately address their past and present grievances.

As it currently stands the initiative offers no answer to Yemen intractableunity problems -- southern secessionist movement, the northern Shiiterebellion, al-Qaeda insurgency -- and sustainable peace; it is now down toYemen transition government to lead the way toward nationalreconciliation, starting with the National Dialogue Conference

National ReconciliationHowever unlikely one might think it, Yemen still stands a chance. If allactors are willing to bite the bullet and move past old resentments thenthe Republic of Yemen might survive the Arab Spring, renewed andstronger in its political, ethnic and sectarian diversity.

As noted by Ibrahim Sharquieh - Foreign Policy fellow at the BrookingsInstitution, deputy director of the BrookingsDoha Center, and adjunct professor at Georgetown University at Qatar -only if all actors -- political factions and groups -- are treated as equalpartners within the dialogue will Yemen stand a chance."While parties need not enjoy numerically equal representation in the

process, they should feel free to express their positions without



intimidation. There should be no one party that administers anddominates the reconciliation."

Sharquieh also noted that unless factions agree to renounce violence, noreal conversation will ever take place.

Yemen will have at one point or another to come to term with itsautocratic past.Recent calls for a lift of deposed President Saleh's immunity blanket byrights groups and activists - among whom 2011 Nobel Peace Prize winner,Tawakkul Karman - underscored the nation's profound need for closureand justice. Yemenis feel they were robbed of their rights for threedecades and they want to settle old scores.

Although it is unlikely all wrongs will be righted - a full account of offenses

will undoubtedly prove impossible to establish since most of the formerregime officials are currently serving in the transition government -politicians will have to work on a compromise which the nation willendorse.Marcy Kreiter - political security analyst based in Dubai - warned thatdenial will only lead to mistrust and political resentment. "Yemenis needto feel connected again to their government... Showing contrition wouldbe a good way to start."

"Avoiding the past because it is painful or controversial will only

complicate the process of reconciliation and lead to instability in thefuture," said Ibrahim Sharquieh.

National DialogueWhile the transition government confirmed the National DialogueConference will take place on March 18th, come what may, the entiresuccess of the conference lies with the willingness of each faction to sendan attending delegation.

In recent months, as the Technical Committee in charge with organizingthe conference was defining its modalities, structure and reach, theHouthis - Shiite rebel group based in the northern province of Sa'ada -and the Harak - Southern Secessionist Movement - threatened towithdraw their politicians if their demands were not met preemptively.While grievances varied depending on the interlocutors, all denounce thepresence of the "former regime" via the General People's Congress andmembers of al-Islah - Sunni radical faction

Political analysts, among whom Ibrahim Sharqieh, insist however allactor, even the former regime's men, are inherent part of the solutionwhen it comes to Yemen.



"The GPC, formerly the ruling party, cannot be eliminated from theYemeni political landscape; it has a role to play in achieving nationalreconciliation and, subsequently, sustainable peace and stability in thecountry."

The conference will have to deal with two elephants in the room -- theSouthern Secessionist Movement and the Houthis' grievances --

Both the Houthis and Harakis require acknowledgment of their legitimatesocial, political, and economic grievances.Southerners themselves must begin an internal dialogue over the type ofrelationship they want to build with the northern part of the country – that is, whether they seek unity, a federal system, or secession.The Houthis should be helped to move past its warring ways and broughtback into mainstream politics through a reorganization of its leadership.

Rather than enemies, both groups should instead be seen as actors andpartners in Yemen's democratic rehabilitation.

Whether Yemen politicians will rise to the challenge, driven by a sense ofnational duty and desire to serve the Yemeni people as a whole remainsto be seen.

The future of a nation now stands in the balance.

The agreement brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for political transition in

Yemen calls for a National Dialogue Conference to help the country’s leaders develop

consensus for draft constitutional reforms and prepare for elections in 2014.During the past

year, the transition has faced considerable challenges from wrangling among competing

political factions to violent activity by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, tribal disputes, and

a southern secessionist movement. Later this month, the country’s leaders will finally join

together for the start of the National Dialogue Conference in an effort to end gridlock on the

country’s stalled political reform process and address worsening economic conditions.

As the country heads into this important dialogue, how does the Yemeni public view the

future of the nation and the priorities they want their leaders to address? What are the key

points of consensus and disagreement we can expect during the dialogue? How can the

United States government support Yemen’s political transition as it seeks to advance other

national security interests?



Yemenis of different intellectual, political, and cultural backgrounds agreed that

the National Dialogue Conference is Yemen’s ultimate salvation, since several

dangerous crises overwhelm the country.

About This ArticleSummary :

Many in Yemen see the looming National

Dialogue Conference as the country’s last

chance to avert armed conflict, but Khaled al-

Hourougi reports that many are upset that the

international community is imposing its will

on Yemen's internal affairs.

Publisher: Al-Hayat (Pan Arab)

Original Title:

Yemen: Fear of the International role in the

Political Settlement

Author: Khaled al-Hourougi

First Published: November 13, 2012

Posted on: November 14 2012

Translated by: Joelle El-Khoury and skaram

Categories : Yemen Security

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However, political and social elites in Yemen fear that this conference might not help

solve the country’s worsening conditions. They also fear that the international patronage

provided for this political initiative might hold Yemen in the custody of the international

community to better serve the interests of the West, regardless of the country’s

circumstances and reality.

Some elites believe that the comprehensive National Dialogue Conference is Yemen’s

last chance to be rescued. Therefore, if this conference fails, they fear the country will be

heading toward a civil war and an armed conflict.

In fact, if the dialogue reaches a deadlock, all Yemeni parties will immediately become

engaged in an armed conflict to maintain their interests by force, or so some argue. The

situation might become much worse if each party sticks to their guns, mainly with

respect to the issues that the conference will discuss. In fact, all concerned parties must

be flexible when dealing with such challenging issues. They must be also prepared to

make mutual compromises, in order to reach a common denominator that will preserve

the rights of all parties.

Moreover, Yemen’s political and social elites share other daunting concerns related to

the international community’s role in dealing with the issues that the national dialogue

conference will discuss.

Although it knows little about the dimensions, background, and political implications of

the problems that the conference will tackle, the international community is today

imposing its own opinion on such problems. Consequently, the situation will become

much more complicated simply because the ready-made solutions provided by the

international community do not take into consideration Yemen’s critical conditions and its

tribal and political interferences.

These conditions and interferences must be considered when determining solutions.

Yemeni journalists and intellectuals also fear that National Dialogue Conference might

become an umbrella for such decisions to which Yemenis do not contribute. The 10

countries that support the Gulf Initiative follow carefully all executive steps related to the

political settlement’s items. They threaten all Yemeni parties of so-called international

legitimacy and the Council of Security, which will impose international sanctions against

any party that impedes the political settlement process and prevents the implementation

of all items of such settlement.

The items of the settlement must be implemented within the second transitional period

that will end as Yemen’s presidential and parliamentary elections kick off in February2014.

Violated sovereignty

Several journalists and intellectuals told Al-Hayat : ―Yemen’s sovereignty is violated and

the country’s affairs are managed by the embassies of several Western countries in

Yemen.‖

They also believe that the role of Yemeni institutions is limited to executing the orders

they receive from the international community. The fears of such journalists and

intellectuals have emerged after tasks have been distributed to several Western

countries that support the Gulf Initiative.

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In fact, France was entrusted with drafting the new constitution of Yemen, while Russia

has helped to organize the National Dialogue Conference. The United States was

tasked with restructuring the Yemeni army and ending the current divisions among the

military.

According to the same journalists and intellectuals, it is very important to profit from theexpertise of such [foreign] countries and their support of the political settlement to

ensure a peaceful power transition, mainly as Yemen is currently witnessing a critical

period.

In reality, the role of such foreign countries is limited to expertise sharing only, since they

intend to impose their opinions and political orientations to better serve their interests in

Yemen and the whole region in general. In fact, these countries will not prioritize

Yemen’s interests and needs over their own interests and goals.

In addition, Yemeni journalists and intellectuals believe the US is not as concerned as

the Yemenis are about the restructuring and reorganization of the Yemeni army andsecurity institutions, based on specific technical, professional, and national criteria.

The US cares little about helping Yemen build a professional, strong army. In fact,

America’s biggest concern is terrorism and al-Qaeda, which has become Washington’s

major threat, compared to the world’s other terrorist organizations.

Al-Qaeda threatens US interests and allies in the region, mainly in light of the

considerable gains this organization has acquired during 2011-12. The organization also

took advantage of the insecurity that accompanied the Yemeni revolution against former

President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s regime.

Yemenis are also concerned about the role France will play in drafting the country’s

constitution. The French Ambassador to Yemen, Frank Gillet, met recently with Yemen’s

Prime Minister, Mohammad Salem Basindwa, in Sanaa. During the meeting, Gillet

confirmed the new constitution ―will be drafted by the competent Yemeni authorities‖ and

that France’s role would be limited to providing necessary technical support.

In a news conference, Minister of Legal Affairs Dr. Mohammad al-Mikhlafi confirmed

Gillet’s statements.

Main mission

In addition, Mikhlafi stated that the mechanism for the power transition process has

determined the competent authorities responsible for drafting the constitution. He alsoconfirmed that the mission of the National Dialogue Conference has two aspects.

The first defines the terms under which the constitutional committee shall be formed. As

for the other aspect, it is related to the conference’s perception of the future, including

the structuring of the state and the form of the political regime. However, Mikhlafi

stressed the importance of the support provided by foreign countries, confirming that the

international community supports the entire power transition process. He added that

such process would fail without the international community’s support for Yemen’s new

constitution.

Despite all assurances, Yemenis fear that France and other Western countries will

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impose constitutional articles that prejudice the Yemeni identity and contribute to the

division of the Yemeni community.

Yemenis’ concerns are based on the various items suggested in the draft agenda of the

National Dialogue Conference, particularly the item related to the ―the state’s identity

and form.‖ This item has become a major concern for Yemenis, because it tackles

Yemen’s national and Islamic identity and the country’s territorial integrity. The first article of the draft constitution stipulates that ―The Republic of Yemen is an

Arab, Islamic and independent sovereign state whose integrity is inviolable, and no part

of which may be ceded. The people of Yemen are part of the Arab and Islamic nation.‖

According to the second article of the Yemeni constitution, ―Islam is the religion of the

state, and Arabic is its official language.‖

As for the third article of the [draft] constitution, it provides that ―The [Islamic] Shariah is

the source of all legislation.‖

There are growing concerns that such articles would be amended or annulled, thus

laying the foundation for a secular regime in Yemen or a federal regime thataccelerates the separation between North Yemen and South Yemen. Yemenis fear

particularly that a federal regime could be adopted, separating North Yemen and South

Yemen according to the conditions imposed by the South Yemen Movement and not as

suggested by several Yemeni political parties.

According to these parties, Yemen should be divided into several cantons in conformity

with the country’s geographic and demographic characteristics, in addition to the

financial and natural resources.

Many Yemeni politicians criticized ―the national long-term partnership‖ — which is

mentioned in the draft agenda of the National Dialogue Conference. These politicians

fear that the new draft constitution includes this item and believe that it is an ambiguous

title that may be intended to adopt a political and non-political quota system between

Northern and Southern Yemen.

This explanation is the most logical, against a backdrop of suggestions regarding the

issue of the South and the accompanying complaints about excluding the people of the

Southern governorates from power, despite representing an independent state

before the unification took place on May 22, 1990.

These politicians, who spoke to Al-Hayat , didn't rule out the possibility that, based on the

concept of partnership, France would reproduce the Lebanese [sectarian power sharing]

system in Yemen.

Dissimilarities between the two countries have been taken i nto consideration. While aconfessional quota system is applied in Lebanon, a regional quota system may be

applied in Yemen (between North and South). And while the head of state will come

from a specific region, the head of the government will be from the other. The same

applies to parliament, the judiciary, the military institution and others. In the event of

adopting this system, the door will be open to other actors that it will be hard to ignore

when talking about partnership and a system of allocating power, such as the Houthis in

the Northern Yemeni province of Saada and the traditional tribal forces.

They emphasise that the concept of the national long-term partnership contradicts the

concepts and rules of democracy, which is based on a competition between political

parties that race to get to power, through the voters’ support of their programs.

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In the event of adopting a parliamentary system or mixed government that consists of

combining the presidential and parliamentary systems of government, these politicians

also believe that the concept of partnership contradicts the principle of equal

opportunities, which would be negatively affected by the political factors associated with

the system of allocating power.

Logical concerns The above concerns are certainly logical and legitimate, given that all parties that will

take part in the national dialogue have not yet announced their point of view regarding

the issues to be discussed in the National Dialogue Conference.

Moreover, no perceptions of solutions and remedies to each issue — most notably the

issues of the south, the Houthis in the province of Saada, the restructuring of the army,

the perception of the Yemeni constitution and the articles that should remain intact or

are supposed to be abolished or amended — have been proposed, as if these parties

are waiting for the proposals of international sponsors of the initiative to discuss and

agree upon.

Moreover, even though all participants in the dialogue submit their perceptions regardingevery issue, they will be — in the best case scenario — the perceptions of elitists that

reflect the convictions and perceptions of political and partisan leaders, civil society

organizations and social and tribal groups.

These perceptions have nothing to do with the popular base of political parties and other

groups; this would prevent the outcome of the dialogue from gaining a national

consensus. The outcome may be rejected by the people, particularly the new

constitution that is due to be submitted for approval in a referendum.

Political parties in Yemen were supposed to consult the opinion of their popular base

regarding the various agenda items of the National Dialogue Conference, before

discussing them with other parties.

The General People's Congress, led by Yemen’s former President Saleh, is placed first

in this regard, even though its consultative meetings — which are held between its

senior, intermediate leaders and the party’s branches in the provinces — are limited to

the issue of the South and how to resolve it.

Anyway, the current political scene in Yemen is still confused, according to the United

Nations envoy to Yemen Jamal Bin Omar.

In a recent statement to the media, he said: ―The political process has significantly

progressed, and power transition is being implemented. However, the situation is still

vulnerable and requires that the international community shows growing concern in this

critical phase that Yemen is experiencing.‖

He stressed that the future months will be decisive, ―the transition process will succeedor we will be going back to zero.‖

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National Dialogue losesthree members oversouthern repressionissue - report*

Yemen Post Staff

Ahead of Thursday demonstrations in Aden, the authorities decided to arrest two radicleaders -- Qassem Askar - leader of the more radical branch of the Harak - and SheikhHussein bin Shuaib - prominent southern cleric - in a bid to prevent an escalation ofviolence on Thursday, which they knew would draw large crowds as the date marksPresident Abdo Rabbo Mansour Hadi first year in office and the country first presidentielections since deposed President Ali Abduallah Saleh resignation from office.

The move would set out a chain reaction which the government very likely failed toenvisage, drawing criticism from prominent rights group such Amnesty International aenraging much of the southern territories as the violence was understood as yet anothof repression from the northern colonialist.

The fact that President Hadi is himself a "southerner", his roots tracing back to the soprovince of Abyan, seems to have now little calming effect on an angry South Yemen.

On Wednesday morning as the Technical Committee in charge with organizing the NatiDialogue Conference was meant to meet up to iron out the last details of the Conferenthree of its members announced they were quitting, in reaction to Sana'a's decision to

imprison southern separatist leaders as a preemptive policy against potential tensions.

The Technical Committee's Secretary General Ahmed Awadh Mubarak confirmed onWednesday that in view of the situation all meetings would have to be postponed. Hethe matter would be brought to President Hadi's attention as a matter of urgency as tNational Dialogue was a top state priority.

As of Wednesday Lutfi Shatara, Lisa al-Hassani and Ali Hassan Ali Zaki withdrew fromTechnical Committee for the National Dialogue, refusing to comment further on theirdecision to the press.

Rights activists throughout the country have warned that unless the government refor



its policing strategy -- arbitrary arrests and excessive use of force against civilians --amount of National Dialogue would resolve Yemen's internal issues.

Amnesty International strongly denounced the use of live ammunitions in Aden, sayinwitnesses testified men from the Central Security Forces had cordoned off separatistmilitants before opening fire onto the crowd, deliberately putting people's lives at risk.Reports estimated so far that four people were killed and 40 others injured in Aden onThursday.

Residents in Aden were keen to note that while the Harak had called on all its militantdemonstrate peacefully, the state chose to use lethal violence.

In Crater where the bulk of the demonstrations took place, residents told the Yemen Pthey were sickened at the hypocrisy of the "new regime" wondering how exactly thingchanged a year after the deposition of Yemen's former strong man, Ali Abdullah Saleh.

"We were repressed under his leadership [President Saleh] ... We are repressed under[President Hadi]. How are things any different? How are we supposed to believe theNational Dialogue will suddenly change the situation? Or is it the state is planning to aall of us and then have a one sided dialogue with sold-out politicians who couldn't carabout our aspirations as a people?" asked Mohammed Ahmed al-Wakeel from Aden.

Political and security analyst Marcy Kreiter from Dubai warned against a radicalizationsouthern separatist movement, noting that events such as these -- arbitrary arrests aheavy policing -- would only reinforce radicals' calls for secession against the north, as

Sana'a will ever more appear the culprit.

"The central government is engaging on a very slippery slope here, as southerners arfeeling very much singled out in their demands. First al-Islah [sunni radical faction] sta pro-Hadi demonstration in Aden without any incident being reporting while separatismilitants were being targeted by the Security Forces.This will create tensions and mistrust. Yemen National Dialogue could be tarnished asresult."

Political activists in Yemen who so far were advocating for some sort of partnership wiSana'a through federalism or at least a variant of it, said now they were seriouslyreconsidering their positions as Sana'a appeared bent on perpetuating Saleh's repressilegacy.

"Sana'a is bullying the south into submission. The government is not treating the Sout

partner but as a force which needs to be tamed. This sort of thinking has no place in astate. Unless an apology is made I don't see how things will get better ... From wherestanding Sana'a might yet see a southern revolution ... Maybe then politicians willunderstand that violence and repression never work," said Salem al-Qatiry from Mukaleastern province of Hadhramawt -

Whether Sana'a central government is willingly or not bullying South Yemen into



submission; consciously or not trying to force radical separatists out of the NationalDialogue, is not really the issue here but rather what people across the southern proviperceived as being true.

Aden very much feels the victim of a plot to maintain its land and people under Sana'athumb. Politicians do not feel they have equal footing in the National Dialogue Confereand they are still skeptical as to how North Yemen intend to address their grievances.

Interestingly the Houthis - Shiite rebel group based in the northern province of Sa'adasimilar complaints.

In any case, Sana'a will need to do some soul searching.

Yemen is still at riskwarns Dr. Yasin Noman*

Yemen Post Staff

Dr. Yassin Noman, Secretary General of Yemen Socialist party noted speaking on theupcoming National Dialogue Conference that while the Technical Committee in chargepreparing the conference had completed its tasks, several major issues remained to baddressed before the transition of power could be identified as successful.He warned that despite President Abdo Rabbo Mansour Hadi's best efforts Yemen's polequilibrium was still elusive and the situation somewhat fluid.While many Yemenis continue to remain skeptic as to how the National Dialogue Conf will translate in terms of change in the impoverished nation, the greater majority belie

the exercise in itself will help root in democracy and the prove that political negotiatiomore constructive than armed confrontations.Although Yemen has a long republican past - since 1962 - the tribal nature of its sociamake-up meant the resolve of intro-governmental conflicts often led to tribal-styleresolution rather than political negotiations.With the National Dialogue Conference, Yemen is trying to mature its democratic systWith only two weeks to go before the conference kicks off the international communitvoiced its support of Yemen, reiterating they would support Yemen as its engages in achapter if its history.In the second year of its transition of power Yemen politicians now stand to make a re

difference in their people's lives by ironing out an agreement which will allow the coun



rebuild its institutions, economy and society on strong foundations.

Yemen Post Staff

*

Yemen president sets March 18 for national dialogue(AFP) – Feb 6, 2013

SANAA — Yemeni President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi on Wednesday set March 18 as the date for amuch-anticipated national dialogue to push forward the process of political transition, state media

said.

Hadi described the conference, which aims to set in motion a process to draft a new constitution and

an electoral law for elections in 2014, as a "strategic and historic opportunity... to achieve a civic and

modern state," Saba state news agency said.

The interim president urged Yemeni political forces to "work strongly to make the conference a

success, and to grab the historic opportunity to achieve justice, freedom and equality," Saba added.

It said the decision was announced following a meeting between the president and the committee

tasked with preparing for the talks which were originally planned for mid-November.

The conference was delayed after factions in the Southern Movement, which has campaigned for

autonomy or secession for the formerly independent south, refused to join the talks.Hadi was elected last February as part of a Gulf-brokered exit deal that eased former president Ali

Abdullah Saleh out of office after 33 years in power, and ended a year of protests against his regime.

The Common Forum parties, which represented the opposition under Saleh and control half of the

current government, announced on Tuesday that they will take part in the dialogue.

The Shiite Huthi rebels, who fought the government of Saleh for many years in the north, also said

they will participate in the forum.

The position of some southern groups remains vague, but former vice president Ali Salem al-Beidh,

who was the president of South Yemen, and who has demanded a full secession from the north,

insists on shunning the talks.

The United Nations which backed the Gulf initiative to end Yemen's crisis has strongly backed

president Hadi in his endeavour to implement the political transition and to restructure security forcesas stipulated by the peace plan.

A top UN Security Council team, including representatives from the council's 15 members, visited

Sanaa late January to demonstrate the UN's support to Yemen's political transition.

Yemen was rocked in 2011 by an uprising that left the already impoverished country's economy in

tatters and weakened the government's control over several areas, especially across the south and

east.



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Yemen : Journey to a land in limbo

Financial Times (London, England) - Friday, November 2, 2012Readabil i ty: 11-12 grade level (Lexile: 1260L)Author: Abigail Fielding-Smith A short while ago, I swept past the Victorian garrison church overlooking the port cityof Aden in southwest Yemen for the first time in more than a year. The trickle of

news which car bombs force out of this otherworldly place at the bottom of the Arabian peninsula, with its volcanic crags and strangely empty shoreline, had donenothing to prepare me for how much it had changed.

When I last visited the city at the end of 2010, before the uprising that unseatedPresident Ali Abdullah Saleh, it was the closest thing to an authoritarian police statein the otherwise chaotically ruled country. Troops were everywhere and people wereafraid to talk to journalists on the street. Today, there is anti-government graffitithroughout the city, and government troops warned us to stay away from one streetbecause of snipers. On the eastern highway out of the city, fighting between thearmy and al-Qaeda-linked militants had left the street lights bent like storm-felledtrees.

In the space of 30 years, Aden has been a British colony, the capital of a Soviet-backed independent republic, part of a new united Yemen , and the headquarters ofa shortlived breakaway state, before being over-run and looted by the unitygovernment's forces. Residents say the wildly volatile state of limbo they have beenin for the past year and a half is more alarming than anything they've experiencedbefore.

"The government is not strong, but the people are not liberated," said Mohamed Ali

Ahmed, who recently returned after nearly three decades away and is a veteran ofthe south's breakaway war. "It's a kind of chaos - no one is controlling anything."

It may not be top of the list in the capital, Sana'a, where clashes between the newpresident and remnants of the old regime continue, but south Yemen is slipping outof control. The absence of a legitimate authority has created the perfect playgroundfor power struggles, not to mention al-Qaeda. Grassroots separatists warn of"catastrophic consequences" if their cause is ignored. What is happening in thesouth is not only one of the biggest problems facing Yemen , but potentially a globalsecurity concern.

"The rise of the southern issue was the result of not dealing with it years ago," saidMohammed al-Mekhlafi, a socialist party politician in Sana'a trying to push the new



government to adopt a law addressing southern grievances. "The alternative ofseizing this opportunity to change is Yemen going to chaos."

Predictions of chaos are nothing new. Every few years (or, increasingly, months), anevent like the recent storming of the US embassy complex in Sana'a will

give Yemen a brief claim on the world's attention. The familiar litany of problems -poverty, resource scarcity, al-Qaeda, heavily armed tribes - will be rehearsed butsomehow the apocalypse never comes, leaving the impression that this land of rockcastles and dagger dances is unusually resilient. In reality, the mounting cost of suchdysfunctionality is hidden in less visible areas, like the south, where scared citizensstrive to understand the capricious machinations of the political players.

The uncertainty of the region is symbolised by Abyan, an agricultural province eastof Aden where camel-drawn carts still carry produce. Islamic militants took overtowns there at the height of the Yemeni uprising last year, sending tens of thousandsto Aden in search of safety. Known as Ansar al-Sharia, the militants were thought to

be a mixture of genuine al-Qaeda ideologues, local malcontents, and even somepeople with links to the old regime.

According to Adel, a human-rights activist from Jaar who did not want to give his lastname, the militants met little resistance there. "They didn't force it, they were trying towin hearts and minds," he recalled. "They did something that neither the governmentnor the tribal sheikhs did - we call it enforcing the rule of law."

When I visited Abyan in the summer, the militants had just left after heavy fightingwith the army and local tribes. The resulting damage was interspersed with theresults of suspected US drone strikes. On one ruined mosque, someone had written,"Is this democracy?" The town of Zinjibar, where cindered armoured personnelcarriers sat in the shadow of shattered buildings, was largely empty, while Jaar,which bore far fewer signs of fighting, was edgily busy.

The army was nowhere to be seen inside the town and, in the absence of any otherauthority, a group of locals had formed a committee to try to keep the place running. A man crossed through the souk to meet us.

"It's been a month since al-Qaeda left, and we haven't seen any security," he said."We are trying to take care of garbage cleaning, manage the souks, we catch thieves

- the government didn't get in and do anything."

Like other residents of Jaar, he was not convinced the militants had really gone - noone had yet felt inclined to take down their banners. "You see armed people and youdon't know who they are - they might be al-Qaeda." Meanwhile, displaced citizens in Aden were reluctant to go back, unconvinced that it was safe. Their caution appearswell-founded: on August 5, a suicide bomber killed 45 people in Jaar.

. . .

There is a widely held idea in south Yemen that their society is fundamentally

different to that of the north. Adenis see themselves as cosmopolitan andsophisticated, and are proud of the city's historic links with India (the town was once



governed by the British out of Bombay and had one of the world's busiest harbours).The north, meanwhile, is often portrayed as tribal and backward - Mohamed Ali Ahmed characterises its political culture as based on "sacrificing cows."

The Marxist state that replaced British-ruled southern Yemen entered into a unity

agreement with north Yemen in 1990, but the relationship quickly soured. "Ourschoolbooks called for unification," said Mohsen Fareed, now an activist forsoutherners' rights, as we talked in a car on the seafront. "We thought our brothers inthe north had the same level of understanding and unity." Fareed, a red-headed manin his sixties, is bitter. "See, here in the capital of the south, we use flashlights," hemuttered when one of Aden's frequent power cuts kicked in. "We used to have astate, a real state, we had institutions."

There is a lot of nostalgia for the Marxist People's Democratic Republicof Yemen (PDRY) these days. A photo exhibition set up by activists in Adenrepresents the era with an image of unveiled women playing chess. Historians tend

to give it more of a mixed scorecard: it created literacy and provided basic services,but was riven by factional disputes, which came to a head in January 1986, whenthousands of people were killed in a series of clashes.

Southern activists say, not without some justification, that the south was treated likea spoil of war after the central government's armies over-ran it in 1994. Employmentwas affected disproportionately by civil service cuts and, in 2007, protests began.Fareed himself was arrested several times, and, in 2010, he says his 15-year-oldson was imprisoned: "Can you imagine putting a kid underground for months?"

When protests escalated after the outbreak of the Arab spring, so did the repression:Human Rights Watch says at least nine people were shot dead by security forces in Aden in February 2011 alone. But overstretched authorities seem to have given uppreventing other forms of dissent. Huge billboards of "martyrs" make it look like aliberated city. The PDRY flag is now ubiquitous in Aden. At the photo exhibition,there was a postcard equating the Yemeni flag with a swastika on display. "Peopleare like toothpaste," said the curator. "Once you take them out, you can't put themback in."

Not everyone wants secession or feels implacably hostile to the central government.Many simply want government. Anssaf Mayo, head of the powerful Islamist political

party Islah, argued that people demanding independence for the south are actually aminority. One of the pragmatic, if somewhat fudged, proposals being talked about isa federal solution, which would give the south more autonomy, and the right to hold areferendum on independence at a later date.

But the voices calling for more radical solutions are getting louder. "Al Ayyam wasthe first to talk about federalism after the war in 1994," said Tammam Bashraheel,the managing editor of the now banned newspaper. "Now, if I were to go outside thisdoor and talk about federalism, I'd be beaten." "If not shot," his nephew, BashraheelHisham, interjected.

Aden is becoming more lawless and violent. The government says there are armedelements in the southern movement, though southern activists ascribe violence to



"infiltrators". However, many fear the issue will move in the direction of armedstruggle if it is not addressed. One activist chewing qat leaves in his sitting room toldus he had begun exploring options for financing weapons purchases. "We don't wantto reach this, but if we are obliged to do so, we will," he said.

Everyone stresses they are keen for a political solution. A national dialogue conference to tackle issues such as the south is due to beheld later this month. The problem is that even if the central government were willingto offer a workable deal, the southern protest movement itself is fragmented, andlikely to become even more so. The kind of leaders with the clout to negotiate withSana'a tend to be enmeshed in the Machiavellian game of Yemeni politics, bestsummarised by a local who said: "If you don't turn into a wolf, the wolves will eatyou."

Those living through it may struggle to understand the tangled politics, but they candiscern an underlying pattern. On our last night in Aden, an old man stopped us as

we were leaving a tea house to which people had swarmed at sunset. He wanted toreach out to us, to see if we saw the degeneration he saw. "The British were best,they made Aden like a flower," he said as we walked past a sprawl of uncollectedrubbish bags on the street. "Everything that came has been worse than what camebefore."

Yemen still very much a work in progress

Financial Times (London, England) - Monday, February 25, 2013Author: Michael Peel Yemen - the Middle East's poorest country and one of its most conflict-wracked - has

carved out a reputation among some commentators as a qualified success story ofthe Arab Spring.

The argument rests in good part on a power transition that - uniquely during thesemore than two years of regional revolution - saw a long-time dictator, Ali AbdullahSaleh, cede office peacefully under an internationally-brokered agreement.

Yet, as Mr Saleh's replacement President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi this weekmarks his first anniversary in office, many observers are holding a much more soberstock-take on a nation whose people's famed inventive resilience continues to betasked by violence and political instability.

While the new leader is already theoretically halfway to the moment when he issupposed to hand power to an elected successor, his country is faced with problemsranging from a militant Islamist insurgency, a contentious US bombing campaign -and the persistent influence of an ancient regime of which he himself was a seniormember.

As Ibrahim Sharqieh, a conflict resolution specialist at the Brookings Doha Centerthink-tank, argues in a detailed new paper that the international deal for Mr Saleh tostep down has proved inadequate for solving the "massive and intractable" troublesconfronting Yemen .

" Yemen has not yet investigated and grappled with its past, including the numerous



human rights abuses that occurred during Saleh's 33 years of dictatorship," MrSharqieh wrote.

Mr Hadi himself has unsurprisingly chosen to project a more positive anniversaryimage, touring two restive southern provinces on Sunday in a show of authority. He

walked around the city of Zinjibar, which had previously been under the control ofIslamist fighters now pitted in a long-running war with government troops and USdrones.

But the visit was also a reminder of the country's many continuing problems. Thepresident's stop in the southern port city of Aden came days after four people werekilled when southern separatists clashed with government loyalists, in onemanifestation of the many tensions between regions of a country that was onlyunified in 1990 and suffered civil war in 1994.

The UN had delivered more evidence of Yemen 's difficulties in its warning this

month that Mr Saleh could face sanctions if he does not stop interfering in thecountry's politics. The former leader - who, along with key family members, hasimmunity from prosecution under the international peace plan - denounced the UNallegations to a gathering of members of his party.

Concerns about how much in Yemen 's power structures has really changed havebeen further stoked by Mr Hadi's lack of action over killings during the year-longuprising that led to hundreds of deaths and concluded in Mr Saleh's ousting inFebruary last year.

While Human Rights Watch, the US-based activist group, said Mr Hadi had takensteps to address grievances of south Yemenis, stopping the use of child soldiers andtaking authority away from Mr Saleh's relatives in the security forces, it accused himof failing to appoint a commission he promised months ago to investigate crimescommitted as the former president fought to stay in office.

Human Rights Watch also warned that aYemeni national dialogue conference due to start next month, as mandated underthe transition plan, is only a first step in a reconciliation process that must "recogniseand make amends for past violations against all sectors of Yemeni society".

Internationally, the approach to Yemen by the world powers who oversaw Mr Saleh'sdeparture is an increasingly dangerous - if familiar - mixture of apparenthumanitarian concern and strategic realpolitik.

While foreign countries have pledged billions in aid - much of it from Saudi Arabia,with which Yemen shares a near 1,500km border - Washington has stepped up abombing campaign against Islamist militants that is causing anger on the ground andattracting increasing criticism in the US.

While it would be wrong to be defeatist about Yemen and dismissive of theimportance of Mr Saleh's departure, the first anniversary of the autocrat's fall is less

a moment to celebrate than an occasion to acknowledge the huge amount thatneeds to be done.



Yemen will never attract world interest in the way Syria or Egypt do - but it would bedisastrous if outside complacency, inattention and aggression combined to destroythe possibilities that still remain for one of the Arab world's most chronicallybenighted countries.

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