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![Page 1: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
www.culturalcognition.net
The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it
Research Supported by: Annenberg Center for Public Policy at the University of Pennsylvanalia
Dan M. KahanYale University
![Page 2: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
1. The identity-knowledge confound
2. How to detect & correct it
3. Report from an ongoing research program
What am I talking about?
![Page 3: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
1. The identity-knowledge confound
2. How to detect & correct it
3. Report from an ongoing research program
What am I talking about?
![Page 4: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
1. The identity-knowledge confound
2. How to detect & correct it
3. Report from an ongoing research program
What am I talking about?
![Page 5: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
1. The identity-knowledge confound
2. How to detect & correct it
3. Report from an ongoing research program
What am I talking about?
![Page 6: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
1. The identity-knowledge confound
2. How to detect & correct it
3. Report from an ongoing research program
What am I talking about?
![Page 7: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
![Page 8: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
![Page 9: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
* The affect heuristic
![Page 10: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
Affect +/-
Risk perception
* The affect heuristic
![Page 11: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
Affect +/-
Risk perception
* The affect heuristic
perceivedbenefit
perceivedcost
anything else
![Page 12: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
Affect +/-
Risk perception
* The affect heuristic
perceivedbenefit
perceivedcost
“trust”
Poortinga, W. & Pidgeon, N.F. Trust in Risk Regulation: Cause or Consequence of the Acceptability of GM Food? Risk Analysis 25, 199-209 (2005)
![Page 13: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
* The cultural theory of risk* The affect heuristic
Affect +/-
Risk perception
perceivedbenefit
perceivedcost
“trust”
cultural worldview
* Interpretive community
![Page 14: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
* The cultural theory of risk* The affect heuristic
Risk perception
perceivedbenefit
perceivedcost
“trust”
cultural worldview
* Interpretive community
![Page 15: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
![Page 16: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 17: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
climate change science lit.
climate change risk perception
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 18: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
climate change risk perception
happening
caused by humans
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 19: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
Affect +/-
climate change risk perception
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 20: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
climate change risks perception
climate change “everything else”
Affect +/-
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 21: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
climate change risks perception
Affect +/-
happening
caused by humans
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 22: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
climate change risks perception
Cultural worldviews happening
caused by humans
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 23: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
GWRISK: “How much risk do you believe global warming pose to human health, safety, or prosperity?” [0 “None at all” to 7 “Extremely high”]
“How strongly do you disagree or agree with the following statements?” [1 “Strongly disagree” to 6 “strong agree”]
Source: Kahan, D.M., Hank, J.-S., Tarantola, T., Silva, C. & Braman, D. Geoengineering and Climate Change Polarization: Testing a Two-Channel Model of Science Communication. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 658, 192-222 (2015).
![Page 24: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
[0 “None at all” to 7 “Extremely high”]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1.6 -1 0 1 1.6
![Page 25: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
[0 “None at all” to 7 “Extremely high”]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1.6 -1 0 1 1.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1.6 -1 0 1 1.6
![Page 26: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
[0 “None at all” to 7 “Extremely high”]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1.6 -1 0 1 1.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1.6 -1 0 1 1.6
r = - 0.65, p < 0.01
![Page 27: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Human caused Naturally caused No warming
Beliefs on global temperature “increase in recent decades”
N = 1,885. Annenberg Public Policy Center & Cultural Cognition Project. Nationally representative sample, June 2014 (YouGov). CIs are 0.95 confidence intervals for estimated general population means.
![Page 28: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
happening
caused by humans
climate change risk perception
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 29: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
happening
caused by humans
climate change risk perception
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 30: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 31: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1994 2010
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 32: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
climate change risks perception
happening
caused by humans
Affect +/-
causes skin cancer
caused by aerosols
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 33: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
climate change risks perception
happening
caused by humans
Cultural worldview
causes skin cancer
caused by aerosols
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 34: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 35: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
* “climate literacy” correlates with worldview
* two scales, not 1: “cause” & “no cause”
* worldview-“climate literacy” interaction
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 36: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
* “climate literacy” correlates with worldview
* two scales, not 1: “cause” & “no cause”
* worldview-“climate literacy” interaction
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 37: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 38: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 39: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
The knowledge-identity confound . . . .
1. The Slovic-Peters-Leiserowitz model (SPL)
2. “Climate change literacy” & SPL . . .
![Page 40: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
What am I talking about?
1. The identity-knowledge confound
2. How to detect & correct it
3. Report from an ongoing research program
![Page 41: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Essential tool: Item response theory
How to detect it . . . .
![Page 42: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
“Group 2”
“Group 1”
“Group 2”
“Group 1”
“Group 2”
“Group 1”
Essential tool: Item response theory
How to detect it . . . .
![Page 43: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
“Group 2”
“Group 1”
“Group 2”
“Group 1”
“Group 2”
“Group 1”
Essential tool: Item response theory
How to detect it . . . .
![Page 44: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
“Group 2”
“Group 1”
“Group 2”
“Group 1”
“Group 2”
“Group 1”
Essential tool: Item response theory
How to detect it . . . .
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
“Group 2”
“Group 1”
![Page 45: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
> avg. religiosity
< avg religiosity
> avg. religiosity
< avg religiosity
> avg. religiosity
< avg religiosity
> avg. religiosity
Essential tool: Item response theory
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
> avg. religiosity
< avg religiosity
How to detect it . . . .
![Page 46: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
> avg. religiosity
< avg religiosity
> avg. religiosity
< avg religiosity
> avg. religiosity
< avg religiosity
< avg religiosity
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree]
Essential tool: Item response theory
How to detect it . . . .
![Page 47: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
> avg. religiosity
< avg religiosity
> avg. religiosity
< avg religiosity
> avg. religiosity
< avg religiosity
< avg religiosity
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree]
Essential tool: Item response theory
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
Liberal Democrat
Conservative Republican
How to detect it . . . .
![Page 48: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
> avg. religiosity
< avg religiosity
< avg religiosity
< avg religiosity
< avg religiosity
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
Liberal Democrat
Conservative Republican
Liberal Democrat
Conservative Republican
Liberal Democrat
Conservative Republican
Essential tool: Item response theory
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree, disagree]
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
Liberal Democrat
Conservative Republican
How to detect it . . . .
![Page 49: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
How to fix it . . . .
![Page 50: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
How to fix it . . . . by unconfounding identity & knowledge!
![Page 51: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
How to fix it . . . . by unconfounding identity & knowledge!
![Page 52: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
How to fix it . . . . by unconfounding identity & knowledge!
![Page 53: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
How to fix it . . . . by unconfounding identity & knowledge!
![Page 54: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
99th percentile1st percentile 84th percentile16th percentile 50th percentile
Prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
resp
onse
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.”
Ordinary Science Intelligence
LiberalDemocrat
ConservativeRepublican
How to fix it . . . . by unconfounding identity & knowledge!
![Page 55: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
What am I talking about?
1. The identity-knowledge confound
2. How to detect & correct it
3. Report from an ongoing research program
![Page 56: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Report from ongoing research program . . .
![Page 57: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” battery
Report from ongoing research program . . .
![Page 58: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
“What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?”
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” battery
Report from ongoing research program . . .
![Page 59: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
“What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?”
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” battery
“Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False]
“Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming will increase the risk of skin cancer in human beings.” [True or false]
Report from ongoing research program . . .
![Page 60: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
OCSI: item response functions
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1 0 1 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1 0 1 2
bars denote 0.95 CIs
Report from ongoing research program . . .
![Page 61: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1 0 1 2
bars denote 0.95 CIs
Report from ongoing research program . . .
OCSI: item response functions
![Page 62: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
bars denote 0.95 CIs
Report from ongoing research program . . .
OCSI: item response functions
![Page 63: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
-2.5 -1 0 1 2.5
99th percentile1st percentile 84th percentile16th percentile 50th percentile
Prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
resp
onse
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.”
Ordinary Science Intelligence
LiberalDemocrat
ConservativeRepublican
OSI: item response functions
Report from ongoing research program . . .
![Page 64: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
bars denote 0.95 CIs
Report from ongoing research program . . .
OCSI: item response functions
![Page 65: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
-2-1
01
2C
lima
te s
cie
nce
lite
racy
-2 -1 0 1 2science comprehension
Ord
inar
y cl
imat
e sc
ienc
e in
telli
genc
e
r = 0.32, p < 0.01
Ordinary science intelligence
1st percentile
86th percentile
14th percentile
99th percentile
50th percentile
50th percentile1st percentile 86th percentile14th percentile 99th percentile
shaded area denotes 0.95 CIs
Report from ongoing research program . . .
OSI & OCSI: best of friends!
![Page 66: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
-2-1
01
2C
lima
te s
cie
nce
lite
racy
-2 -1 0 1 2science comprehension
Ord
inar
y cl
imat
e sc
ienc
e in
telli
genc
e
r = 0.32, p < 0.01
Ordinary science intelligence
50th percentile1st percentile 86th percentile14th percentile 99th percentile
1st percentile
86th percentile
14th percentile
99th percentile
50th percentile
> avg Left_Right< avg Left_Right
-2-1
01
2C
lima
te s
cie
nce
lite
racy
-2 -1 0 1 2science comprehension
shaded area denotes 0.95 CIs
Report from ongoing research program . . .
OSI & OCSI: best of friends!
![Page 67: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
OCSI & positions on global warming
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Human caused Naturally caused No warming
Positions on global warming in “past few decades”
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
No
. co
rrec
t
Report from ongoing research program . . .
![Page 68: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
bars denote 0.95 CIs
Report from ongoing research program . . .
OCSI: item response functions
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1 0 1 2
![Page 69: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
bars denote 0.95 CIs
Report from ongoing research program . . .Unconfounding
What we know from Who we are
![Page 70: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
“Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False]
“What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?”
“Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
“Climate scientists believe that if the North Pole icecap melted as a result of human-caused global warming, global sea levels would rise.” [True or False]
“Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming will increase the risk of skin cancer in human beings.” [True or False]
“Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming has increased the number and severity of hurricanes around the world in recent decades.” [True or false]
“Climate scientists believe that nuclear power generation contributes to global warming” [True or false]
“Climate scientists believe that here will be positive as well as negative effects from human-caused global warming.” [True or false]
“Climate scientists believe that globally averaged surface air temperatures were higher for the first decade of the twenty-first century (2000-2009) than for the last decade of the twentieth century (1990-1999) [True or false]
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
Ordinary climate science intellience
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
Ordinary climate science intellience
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
Ordinary climate science intellience
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
Ordinary climate science intellience Ordinary climate science intellience
Ordinary climate science intellience
Ordinary climate science intellience
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
Ordinary climate science intellience
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
Ordinary climate science intellience
“Ordinary climate science intelligence” item response curves
Figures plot the predicted probability of correctly responding to the item conditional on score on OCSI scale. Black bars denote 0.95 CIs. The figures can thus be used to assess the relative difficulty of the items and the precision with which they measure differences in comprehension.
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” battery
Report from ongoing research program . . .
![Page 71: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
“Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False]
“What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?”
“Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
“Climate scientists believe that if the North Pole icecap melted as a result of human-caused global warming, global sea levels would rise.” [True or False]
“Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming will increase the risk of skin cancer in human beings.” [True or False]
“Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming has increased the number and severity of hurricanes around the world in recent decades.” [True or false]
“Climate scientists believe that nuclear power generation contributes to global warming” [True or false]
“Climate scientists believe that here will be positive as well as negative effects from human-caused global warming.” [True or false]
“Climate scientists believe that globally averaged surface air temperatures were higher for the first decade of the twenty-first century (2000-2009) than for the last decade of the twentieth century (1990-1999) [True or false]
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
.6.7
.8.9
1
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2
Ordinary climate science intellience
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
Ordinary climate science intellience
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
Ordinary climate science intellience
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
Ordinary climate science intellience Ordinary climate science intellience
Ordinary climate science intellience
Ordinary climate science intellience
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
Ordinary climate science intellience
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
prob
abili
ty o
f cor
rect
ans
wer
Ordinary climate science intellience
“Ordinary climate science intelligence” item response curves
Figures plot the predicted probability of correctly responding to the item conditional on score on OCSI scale. Black bars denote 0.95 CIs. The figures can thus be used to assess the relative difficulty of the items and the precision with which they measure differences in comprehension.
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” battery
Report from ongoing research program . . .
![Page 72: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” 2.0!
Report from ongoing research program . . .
* test Shi/Tobler/Visschers/Siegrist on US sample
* retest best OCSI plus some rookies
* use IRT to construct best unconfounded synthesis
* test conjectures on OCSI & “scientific consensus”
![Page 73: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” 2.0!
Report from ongoing research program . . .
* test Shi/Tobler/Visschers/Siegrist on US sample
* retest best OCSI plus some rookies
* use IRT to construct best unconfounded synthesis
* test conjectures on OCSI & “scientific consensus”
![Page 74: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” 2.0!
Report from ongoing research program . . .
* test Shi/Tobler/Visschers/Siegrist on US sample
* retest best OCSI plus some rookies
* use IRT to construct best unconfounded synthesis
* test conjectures on OCSI & “scientific consensus”
![Page 75: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” 2.0!
Report from ongoing research program . . .
* test Shi/Tobler/Visschers/Siegrist on US sample
* retest best OCSI plus some rookies
* use IRT to construct best unconfounded synthesis
* test conjectures on OCSI & “scientific consensus”
![Page 76: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” 2.0!
Report from ongoing research program . . .
* test Shi/Tobler/Visschers/Siegrist on US sample
* retest best OCSI plus some rookies
* use IRT to construct best unconfounded synthesis
* test conjectures on OCSI & “scientific consensus”
![Page 77: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
What am I talking about?
The end!
1. The identity-knowledge confound
2. How to detect & correct it
3. Report from an ongoing research program
![Page 78: Www.culturalcognition.net The climate-science literacy measurement problem—and how to fix it Dan M. Kahan Yale University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bff61a28abf838cbe0b3/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
New data: shame & critical reasoning!www.culturalcognition.net