Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives...
Transcript of Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives...
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Dan M. Kahan
Yale University
www.culturalcognition.net
Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES-0242106, -0621840 & -0922714 Woodrow Wilson Int’l Center for Scholars Oscar M. Ruebhausen Fund at Yale Law School
Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational?And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!
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I. “Modeling” motivated reasoning
II. The Cultural cognition of risk (& other things)
III. Ideology, cognitive reflection & motivated reasoning
What am I talking about? . . .
![Page 3: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
Bayesian Information Processing
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
Confirmation Bias
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
![Page 5: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
Motivated Reasoning
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
ExtrinsicGoal/Interest
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
ExtrinsicGoal/Interest
Motivated ReasoningSpurious confirmation bias
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
Motivated Reasoning
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
ExtrinsicGoal/Interest
![Page 8: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
Motivated Reasoning
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
IdeologicalPredisposition
Ideologically Motivated Reasoning
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![Page 10: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
Motivated ReasoningSpurious confirmation bias
IdeologicalPredisposition
![Page 11: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
I. “Modeling” motivated reasoning
II. The Cultural cognition of risk (& other things)
III. Ideology, cognitive reflection & motivated reasoning
What am I talking about? . . .
![Page 12: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
Motivated Reasoning
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
ExtrinsicGoal/Interest
Cultural Cognition of Risk
![Page 13: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
Motivated Reasoning
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
CulturalPredisposition
Cultural Cognition of Risk
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Hierarchy
Egalitarianism
Abortion procedure
Mary Douglas’s Group-grid worldview scheme
compulsory psychiatric treatment
Abortion procedure
compulsory psychiatric treatment
Risk Perception KeyLow RiskHigh Risk
Individualism Communitarianism
Environment: climate, nuclear
Guns/Gun Control
Guns/Gun Control
HPV Vaccination
HPV Vaccination
Gays military/gay parenting
Gays military/gay parenting
Environment: climate, nuclear
hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians
egalitarian communitariansegalitarian individualists
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
Cultural Cognition
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
CulturalPredisposition
Cultural Cognition of Risk
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38
Identity Protective Cognition
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Mechanisms of cultural cognition
Culturally biased search & assimilation Cultural credibility heuristic Cultural availability effect Identity-affirmation Culturally motivated “system 2” reasoning
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0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Bene
ifts >
Risk
s
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
nef
its >
Ris
ks
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
Per
ceiv
e B
enef
its
> R
isks
* Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05
0%
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75%
100%
0%
25%
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75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Ben
efits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
![Page 20: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Bene
ifts >
Risk
s
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
nef
its >
Ris
ks
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
* Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Ben
efits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
Per
ceiv
e B
enef
its
> R
isks
![Page 21: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Bene
ifts >
Risk
s
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
nef
its >
Ris
ks
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
* Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Per
ceiv
e B
enef
its
> R
isks
![Page 22: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
0%
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75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
63%
77%
61%
85%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-ExposedExperimental Condition
Bene
ifts
> Ri
sks
Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano86%
61%
23%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-ExposedExperimental Condition
Bene
ifts >
Risk
s
Hierarchical Individualist
Egalitarian Communitarian
*
*
* Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition ofNanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
0%
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50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Be
ne
ift
s >
R
isk
s
0%
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100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Be
ne
ift
s >
R
isk
s
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits >
R
isks
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano*
*
* Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition ofNanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano*
*
* Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition ofNanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
Information effect: familiarity Information effect: culture
Per
ceiv
e B
enef
its
> R
isks
0%
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No Information Information-Exposed
Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano*
*
* Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition ofNanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
0%
25%
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75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano*
*
* Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition ofNanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
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No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
63%
77%
61%
85%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-ExposedExperimental Condition
Bene
ifts
> Ri
sks
Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano86%
61%
23%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-ExposedExperimental Condition
Bene
ifts >
Risk
s
Hierarchical Individualist
Egalitarian Communitarian
*
*
* Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition ofNanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
0%
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No Information Information-Exposed
Be
ne
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s >
R
isk
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No Information Information-Exposed
Be
ne
ift
s >
R
isk
s
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits >
R
isks
Information effect: familiarity Information effect: culture
Per
ceiv
e B
enef
its
> R
isk
s
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High Risk
ModerateRisk
SlightRisk
Almost NoRisk
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Internet Mad CowDisease
NuclearPower
GeneticallyModifiedFoods
Private GunOwnership
Familiar with NanotechnologyUnfamiliar with Nanotechnology
n = 1,820 to 1,830. Risk variables are 4-pt measures of “risk to people in American Society” posed by indicated risk. Differences between group means all significant at p ≤ .01.
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0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits
> R
isks
63%
77%
61%
85%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-ExposedExperimental Condition
Bene
ifts
> Ri
sks
Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano86%
61%
23%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-ExposedExperimental Condition
Bene
ifts >
Risk
s
Hierarchical Individualist
Egalitarian Communitarian
*
*
* Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition ofNanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Be
ne
ift
s >
R
isk
s
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Be
ne
ift
s >
R
isk
s
Experiment Condition Experiment ConditionNo Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
85%77%
61% 61%
Info.-Exposed
86%*
23%*
63%Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano
Figure 1
EgalitarianCommunitarian
HierarchicalIndividualist
Be
ne
fits >
R
isks
Information effect: familiarity Information effect: culture
Per
ceiv
e B
enef
its
> R
isks
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.9%2.2%
3.6%
5.8%
19.5%
-1.4%-0.9%-0.9%-0.5%-2.6%
0%
-5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
5%
Incr
ease
in
Pre
dic
ted
Lik
elih
oo
d o
f S
elf-
Rep
ort
ed F
amil
iari
ty w
ith
Nan
ote
chn
olo
gy
Hierarch
Egalitarian
20th 40th 60th 80th 99th
Communitarian IndividualisticPercentile
Figure S1
1st
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
CulturalWorldview
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
Cultural Cognition of Risk
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
CulturalWorldview
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
Cultural Cognition of Risk
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Mechanisms of cultural cognition
Culturally biased search & assimilation Cultural credibility heuristic Cultural availability effect Identity-affirmation Culturally motivated “system 2” reasoning
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
CulturalPredisposition
Cultural Cognition of Risk
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
Spurious confirmation bias
CulturalPredisposition
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
CulturalPredisposition
Cultural Cognition of Risk
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Control Condition
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Anti-pollution Condition
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Geoengineering Condition
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1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
control pollution geoengineering
more polarization
lesspolarization
Polarizationz_
Stud
y di
smis
s 2
anti-pollution
Kahan, Jenkins-Smith, Tarantola, Silva & Braman, Geoengineering and the Science Communication Environment, CCP Working Paper No. 92 (Jan. 9, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1981907
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Mechanisms of cultural cognition
Culturally biased search & assimilation Cultural credibility heuristic Cultural availability effect Identity-affirmation Culturally motivated “system 2” reasoning
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Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Climate Change 2, 732-735 (2012).
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Two Hypotheses
1. Public Irrationality Thesis (PIT)
2. Cultural cognition thesis (CCT)
• “science illiteracy”• “bounded rationality”
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-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
point 1 point 2
low vs. high sci
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”
Greater
Lesser
perc
eive
d ri
sk (
z-sc
ore)
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
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-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
Greater
Lesser
perc
eive
d ri
sk (
z-sc
ore)
PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
point 1 point 2
low vs. high sci
High Sci. litearcy/System 2 (“slow”)
Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 (“fast”)
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”
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-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
point 1 point 2
low vs. high sci
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
point 1 point 2
low vs. high sci
Lesser Risk
Greater Risk
Science literacy Numeracy
low high
perc
eive
d ri
sk (
z-sc
ore)
low high
PIT prediction PIT prediction
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
30b 30t 30b 30t
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
30b 30t 30b 30t
actual varianceactual variance
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
point 1 point 2
low vs. high sci
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
point 1 point 2
low vs. high sci
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”
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-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
Greater
Lesser
perc
eive
d ris
k (z
-sco
re)
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
point 1 point 2
low vs. high sci
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”
Low Sci lit/numeracy
High Sci lit/numeracy
Cultural Variance
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
Hierarchical Individualist
Egalitarian Communitarian
Cultural variance conditional on sci. literacy/numeracy?
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
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-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
Greater
Lesser
perc
eive
d ris
k (z
-sco
re)
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”
Low Sci lit/numeracy
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
High Sci lit/numeracy
Egalitarian Communitarian
PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low highHierarchical Individualist
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
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-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
Greater
Lesser
perc
eive
d ris
k (z
-sco
re)
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
point 1 point 2
low vs. high sci
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”
High Sci lit/numeracy
Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num...
Low Sci lit/numeracy
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
sci_num
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
sci_num
High Sci lit/numeracyEgal Comm
Low Sci/lit numeracyEgal Comm
Low Sci lit/num.Hierarc Individ
High Sci lit/numeracyHierarch Individ
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
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-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
Greater
Lesser
perc
eive
d ris
k (z
-sco
re)
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
point 1 point 2
low vs. high sci
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”
High Sci lit/numeracy
Low Sci lit/numeracy
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
sci_num
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
sci_num
Low Sci lit/num.Hierarc Individ
High Sci lit/numeracyEgal Comm
High Sci lit/numeracyHierarch Individ
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
Low Sci/lit numeracyEgal Comm
Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num...
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
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-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
Greater
Lesser
perc
eive
d ris
k (z
-sco
re)
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
point 1 point 2
low vs. high sci
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”
High Sci lit/numeracy
Low Sci lit/numeracy
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
sci_num
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
sci_num
Low Sci lit/num.Hierarc Individ
POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases
High Sci lit/numeracyEgal Comm
High Sci lit/numeracyHierarch Individ
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low high
Low Sci/lit numeracyEgal Comm
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
CulturalWorldview
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
System 1 and System 2
Cultural Cognition of Risk
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Mechanisms of cultural cognition
Culturally biased search & assimilation Cultural credibility heuristic Cultural availability effect Identity-affirmation Culturally motivated “system 2” reasoning
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I. “Modeling” motivated reasoning
II. The Cultural cognition of risk (& other things)
III. Ideology, cognitive reflection & motivated reasoning
What am I talking about? . . .
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“Asymmetry thesis”
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
Cultural Cognition
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
System 1 and System 2
CulturalPredisposition
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38
Identity Protective Cognition
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Identity Protective Cognition
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT
control vs. “skeptic-is-biased” & “nonskeptic-is-biased”
Sample
Measures
Experimental Manipulation
Study design
Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT
control vs. “skeptic-is-biased” & “nonskeptic-is-biased”
Sample
Measures
Experimental Manipulation
Study design
Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
![Page 59: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT
control vs. “skeptic-is-biased” & “nonskeptic-is-biased”
Sample
Measures
Experimental Manipulation
Study design
Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT
control vs. “skeptic-is-biased” & “nonskeptic-is-biased”
Sample
Measures
Experimental Manipulation
Study design
Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
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Finding # 1. Political differences in CRT are trivial
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3
Democrat
Republican
CRT Score
Democrat
Republican
N = 1600. Derived from ordered logit regression. Outcome variable is CRT score. Predictor is 7-point partisan self-identification measure. Predictor value set at 2 for “Democrat” and 6 for “Republican.” CIs are 0.95 level of confidence.
Like
lihoo
d of
Sco
re
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3
100-120
20-30
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3
Democrat
Republican
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3
white
nonwhite
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3
low relig
high relig
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3
male
female
female
male
High religion
Low religion
white
Nonwhite
$20K-$30K
$100K-$120K
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3
College
HS
high school grad
college grad
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3
Democrat
RepublicanRepublican
Democrat
CRT Score
Like
lihoo
d of
Sco
re
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT
control vs. “skeptic-is-biased” & “nonskeptic-is-biased”
Sample
Measures
Experimental Manipulation
Study design
Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT
control vs. “skeptic-is-biased” & “nonskeptic-is-biased”
Sample
Measures
Experimental Manipulation
Study design
Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
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Psychologists believe the questions you have just answered measure how reflective and open-minded someone is.
How strongly do you agree or disagree with this statement? [strongly disagree, moderately disagree, slightly disagree, slightly agree, moderately disagree, strongly disagree]
“I think the word-problem test I just took supplies good evidence of how reflective and open-minded someone is.”
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT
control vs. “skeptic-is-biased” & “nonskeptic-is-biased”
Sample
Measures
Experimental Manipulation
Study design
Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT
control vs. “skeptic-is-biased” & “nonskeptic-is-biased”
Sample
Measures
Experimental Manipulation
Study design
Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
![Page 68: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
1. Control condition
Psychologists believe the questions you have just answered measure how reflective and open-minded someone is....
2. Skeptic-is-biased condition
... In one recent study, a researcher found that people who accept evidence of climate change tend to get more answers correct than those who reject evidence of climate change. If the test is a valid way to measure open-mindedness, that finding would imply that those who believe climate change is happening are more open-minded than those who are skeptical that climate change is happening....
3. Nonskeptic-is-biased condition
... In one recent study, a researcher found that people who reject evidence of climate change tend to get more answers correct than those who accept evidence of climate change. If the test is a valid way to measure open-mindedness, that finding would imply that those who are skeptical that climate change is happening are more open-minded than those who believe climate change is happening....
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1. Control condition
Psychologists believe the questions you have just answered measure how reflective and open-minded someone is....
2. Skeptic-is-biased condition
... In one recent study, a researcher found that people who accept evidence of climate change tend to get more answers correct than those who reject evidence of climate change. If the test is a valid way to measure open-mindedness, that finding would imply that those who believe climate change is happening are more open-minded than those who are skeptical that climate change is happening....
3. Nonskeptic-is-biased condition
... In one recent study, a researcher found that people who reject evidence of climate change tend to get more answers correct than those who accept evidence of climate change. If the test is a valid way to measure open-mindedness, that finding would imply that those who are skeptical that climate change is happening are more open-minded than those who believe climate change is happening....
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“Asymmetry thesis”
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
IdeologicalPredisposition
Ideologically Motivated Reasoning
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
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Prior:other side
displays IMR
Other side’sCRT score
IdeologicalPredisposition
Ideologically Motivated Reasoning
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
Revised:other side
displays IMR
NewEvidence
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PriorFactualBelief
NewEvidence
RevisedFactualBelief
IdeologicalPredisposition
Ideologically Motivated Reasoning
prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT
control vs. “skeptic-is-biased” & “nonskeptic-is-biased”
Sample
Measures
Experimental Manipulation
Study design
Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
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.1.2
.3.4
.5.6
.7.8
-2 -1 0 1 2
control
“skeptic-is-biased” condition
“believer-is -biased” condition
Like
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d of
agr
eein
g CR
T “v
alid
”
Liberal Dem Conserv RepubConserv_Repub
.1.2
.3.4
.5.6
.7.8
-2 -1 0 1 2
control
“skeptic-is-biased” condition
“believer-is -biased” condition
Like
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d of
agr
eein
g C
RT
“val
id”
Liberal Dem Conserv RepubConserv_Repub
Finding # 2. Ideologically biased assimilation of “validity of CRT”
control
“nonskeptic is biased”
“skeptic is biased”
Fitted ordered-logit regression analysis values. Y-axis reflects predicted probability of agreeing either “slightly,” “moderately,” or “strongly” with CRT_valid.
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1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT
control vs. “skeptic-is-biased” & “nonskeptic-is-biased”
Sample
Measures
Experimental Manipulation
Study design
Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
![Page 77: Www.culturalcognition.net Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational? And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110304/551a496f5503463e778b524c/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
1,800 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Political ideology & party affiliation Cognitive reflection test (CRT) Perceived validity of CRT
control vs. “skeptic-is-biased” & “nonskeptic-is-biased”
Sample
Measures
Experimental Manipulation
Study design
Kahan, Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection, CCP Working Paper No. 107 (Nov. 19, 2012), available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2182588
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.1.2
.3.4
.5.6
.7.8
-2 -1 0 1 2
control
“skeptic-is-biased” condition
“believer-is -biased” condition
Like
lihoo
d of
agr
eein
g CR
T “v
alid
”
Liberal Dem Conserv RepubConserv_Repub
.1.2
.3.4
.5.6
.7.8
-2 -1 0 1 2
control
“skeptic-is-biased” condition
“believer-is -biased” condition
Like
lihoo
d of
agr
eein
g C
RT
“val
id”
Liberal Dem Conserv RepubConserv_Repub
Finding # 2. Ideologically biased assimilation of “validity of CRT”
control
“nonskeptic is biased”
“skeptic is biased”
Fitted ordered-logit regression analysis values. Y-axis reflects predicted probability of agreeing either “slightly,” “moderately,” or “strongly” with CRT_valid.
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Finding # 3. Ideologically biased assimilation increases with CRT
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Control "Skeptic biased" "Nonskeptic biased"
Lib Dem Hi CRT
Con Repub Hi CRT
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Control "Skeptic biased" "Nonskeptic biased"
Lib Dem
Con Repub
Likel
ihoo
d of
agre
eing
CRT
“val
id”
(A) (B)
Conservative RepublicanLow CRT
Liberal DemocratLow CRT
Conservative RepublicanHigh CRT
Liberal DemocratHigh CRT
control skeptic-is-biased nonskeptic-is-biased control skeptic-is-biased nonskeptic-is-biased
Note. N = 1750. Derived from ordered logit regression. Point estimates of predicted likelihood of agreeing (slightly, moderately or strongly) that CRT test is valid. CIs are 0.95 level of confidence.
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1. Control condition
Psychologists believe the questions you have just answered measure how reflective and open-minded someone is....
2. Skeptic-is-biased condition
... In one recent study, a researcher found that people who accept evidence of climate change tend to get more answers correct than those who reject evidence of climate change. If the test is a valid way to measure open-mindedness, that finding would imply that those who believe climate change is happening are more open-minded than those who are skeptical that climate change is happening....
3. Nonskeptic-is-biased condition
... In one recent study, a researcher found that people who reject evidence of climate change tend to get more answers correct than those who accept evidence of climate change. If the test is a valid way to measure open-mindedness, that finding would imply that those who are skeptical that climate change is happening are more open-minded than those who believe climate change is happening....
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Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational?And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!
vs.
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Is Ideologically Motivated Reasoning Rational?And Do Only Conservatives Engage In It?!
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Did protestors cross the line between “speech” and “intimidation”?
source: Dan M. Kahan, David A. Hoffman, Donald Braman, Danieli Evans & Jeffrey J. Rachlinski, They Saw a Protest : Cognitive Illiberalism and the Speech-Conduct Distinction, 64 Stan. L. Rev. (forthcoming 2012)
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Experimental Conditions
Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition
source: Dan M. Kahan, David A. Hoffman, Donald Braman, Danieli Evans & Jeffrey J. Rachlinski, They Saw a Protest : Cognitive Illiberalism and the Speech-Conduct Distinction, 64 Stan. L. Rev. (forthcoming 2011)
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Pct
. Agr
ee
Protestors blocked Screamed in face
Pedestrians just not want to listen Police just annoyed
50%
69%
43%
56%
25% 25%29%
77%
13%
70%
8%
37%
26%
16%
70%
32%
39%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Anti-abortion
Anti-military Anti-abortion
Anti-military Anti-abortion
Anti-military
Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police
Egal Comm
Egal Indivd
Hier Comm
Hier Individ
50%
69%
43%
56%
25% 25%29%
77%
13%
70%
8%
37%
26%
16%
70%
32%
39%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Anti-abortion
Anti-military Anti-abortion
Anti-military Anti-abortion
Anti-military
Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police
Egal Comm
Egal Indivd
Hier Comm
Hier Individ
50%
69%
43%
56%
25% 25%29%
77%
13%
70%
8%
37%
26%
16%
70%
32%
39%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Anti-
abortion
Anti-military Anti-
abortion
Anti-military Anti-
abortion
Anti-military
Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police
Egal Comm
Egal Indivd
Hier Comm
Hier Individ
50%
69%
43%
56%
25% 25%29%
77%
13%
70%
8%
37%
26%
16%
70%
32%
39%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Anti-abortion
Anti-military Anti-abortion
Anti-military Anti-abortion
Anti-military
Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police
Egal Comm
Egal Indivd
Hier Comm
Hier Individ
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center
EI v. HC EC v. HI
Screamed in face
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center
EI v. HC EC v. HI
Protestors blocked
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center
EI v. HC EC v. HI
Police just annoyed
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center
EI v. HC EC v. HI
Pedesterians not want to listen
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Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment
Go to www.culturalcognition.net!